2024 Field

Carp said:
Did you miss the "almost every recent poll part of the post?
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No, I heard your vagueness and non-committal phrase very well. It's meaningless. The Fox poll is a recent poll.

Every poll I see shows Harris with all the momentum. Georgia is purple and Harris and Walz are there for a reason.
 
Runnin said:
No, I heard your vagueness and non-committal phrase very well. It's meaningless. The Fox poll is a recent poll.

Every poll I see shows Harris with all the momentum. Georgia is purple and Harris and Walz are there for a reason.
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https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/


August polls suggest a high of +7 and a low of +1 for Trump in GA, with an average of about +3 (when adjusting for poll size). Dating back to mid July, the highs were +10. Prior to this Fox poll, the only other poll in GA to show Harris with a lead was done by a Democrat sponsored pollster and it was +1.

You are high off your ass if you think Harris has anything close to a lead in GA right now.
 
Carp said:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/

You are high off your ass if you think Harris has anything close to a lead in GA right now.
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The post DNC polls has Harris with a 0.2% lead. All those polls you are referring to were before the DNC. There has been a shift toward Harris. How much?

You are high off you ass if you think I have any belief about who's ahead in GA now. I'm just following the polls like you, except I'm looking at the "recent" numbers.
 
Carp said:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/

Trump with as much as a 5 point lead in PA. The latest polls says so, since that's what we're doing now.


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/

Leads by 4 in NC
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LOL. You are cherry picking.

Harris is up by 1.7 in Pennsylvania according to that aggregate poll at the top. That's what 538 does. They combine polls and give more weight to different polls.
 
Runnin said:
The post DNC polls has Harris with a 0.2% lead. All those polls you are referring to were before the DNC. There has been a shift toward Harris. How much?

You are high off you ass if you think I have any belief about who's ahead in GA now. I'm just following the polls like you, except I'm looking at the "recent" numbers.
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You mean the ONE whole polls in GA that has been reported since the DNC?
 
Runnin said:
LOL. You are cherry picking.

Harris is up by 1.7 in Pennsylvania according to that aggregate poll at the top. That's what 538 does. They combine polls and give more weight to different polls.
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And therein lies in the problem. Something I have constantly questioned all year. even before Biden dropped out. How exactly are they calculating the weights of these polls, because they don't seem to make any sense. The reality is, they seem to be putting a lot of weight into national polls when calculating these numbers. And as we know, national polls are pretty useless on an individual state scale.

For reference, only 1 other poll since Harris announced has shown Harris with a lead in GA. And it was +1 lead from a Democrat sponsored poll of 662 RVs. All of the GA polls have had Trump either leading or tied. Some of them showed Trump with substantial leads. Yet somehow, the barometer over the entire month of August shows Trump barely with a lead. I mean ****, on August 15 they showed Harris with a marginal average lead, despite Trump having polled as high as +6 in the NYTC/Sienna poll like a day or 2 before. There were ZERO polls in mid August showing Harris with a lead of any kind. The **** kind of math are they using to come up with a Harris lead in mid August in GA with zero effing GA polls showed her with a lead?



I'm fine with saying PA is not a Trump lead by +5 or anywhere close to that. Because it's 1 poll. I am also ok saying AZ and NC are very close currently (though again, most polls show a Trump lead).

You on the other hand, cannot be unbiased, even for a minute.
 
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Carp said:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/

Trump with as much as a 5 point lead in PA. The latest polls says so, since that's what we're doing now.
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Did you read the polls? that 5 point lead in PA is Trump vs. Biden. Which means those pollsters either were doing a poll to see if it was better to replace Biden with Harris or not. In a republican sponsored poll they have Harris and Trump as even in registered voters and Trump+1 in likely voters
 
zitothebrave said:
Did you read the polls? that 5 point lead in PA is Trump vs. Biden. Which means those pollsters either were doing a poll to see if it was better to replace Biden with Harris or not. In a republican sponsored poll they have Harris and Trump as even in registered voters and Trump+1 in likely voters
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I did miss that. It's late.

But, as usual, you are missing the entire point. Even if it was +5 Trump over Harris, I don't actually believe Trump has a +5 lead because of 1 poll. All of the recent PA polls suggest PA is a toss up currently.

Of course, Biden and Hillary held commanding polling leads in PA throughout the entire election cycles. Hillary lost PA and Biden narrowly won.
 
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Carp said:
I did miss that. It's late.

But, as usual, you are missing the entire point. Even if it was +5 Trump over Harris, I don't actually believe Trump has a +5 lead because of 1 poll.
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Fair enough. I mean I think any reasonable person right now would not think any tossup state is more than a tossup. YOu won't have a real idea of what's in play until probably October polls.
 
zitothebrave said:
Fair enough. I mean I think any reasonable person right now would not think any tossup state is more than a tossup. YOu won't have a real idea of what's in play until probably October polls.
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I mostly agree. Still 68 days till election day, so anything can happen. But polling isn't in Kamala's favor at the moment if the last 2 elections are any indication.
 
Carp said:
LMAO, almost every recent poll has Trump with a sizeable lead in GA. Kommiela is polling SIGNIFICANTLY worse in every battle ground state than Biden did in 2020. She will be embarrassed in the election if she doesn't substantially improve her polling numbers.
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Trump was up with independents apparently too in the poll but losing the rust belt. Lol
 
Acuña’s Bat Flip said:
[tw]1828842472472023063[/tw]
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I'm 35

She's easily the worst canidate for president of my lifetime. She's not only mentally retarded, but her policies are so bad it's staggering that anyone with a brain could support. Leftists have no brains, so they pull the lever as they are told

(They are not different from the MAGA cult)
 
The post DNC polls are NOT even out yet. It's takes several days for polls to catch up to current sentiment.

There's been a huge swing in the electorate towards Harris/Waltz, almost 10 pts in some states and the swing hasn't stopped yet.
 
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[tw]1828945091693801824[/tw]

Election should be canceled and awarded to Trump considering how many ways the 2020 election was stolen.

How is it possible thst people can vote for the Dems at this point.
 
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