The disconnect seems to be that they don't account for swing states that will most certainly decide the election. We've talked ad nauseum about now Kamala needs to poll in the swing states to have a chance. If the majority of polling starts looking like she has 4 point lead in the rust belt, I will agree that she is likely to win. Until then, it's an up hill climb for Kommiela
2024 Field
- Thread starter Jaw
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The disconnect seems to be that they don't account for swing states that will most certainly decide the election. We've talked ad nauseum about now Kamala needs to poll in the swing states to have a chance. If the majority of polling starts looking like she has 4 point lead in the rust belt, I will agree that she is likely to win. Until then, it's an up hill climb for Kommiela
Look at unweighted samples in these polls. There is going to be an earthquake come Election Day.
Tapate50
Well-known member
But but Trump wants to be president forever!!
Runnin
Well-known member
They know they are losing badly in the states they need to win so knowing your opponents strategy and potential dirt it’s important.
Not even sure if you’re legitimately asking this question.
acesfull86
Well-known member
I think a candidate knows he’s in trouble when he labels the other side as a bunch of communists, then turns around six weeks before the election and finds himself campaigning to cap interest rates charged by private companies.
Trump wins with 275 EV in this scenario.
We are going to find out now won’t we.
Capping interest rates will result in more risk adverse policies for credit card companies. Non credit worthy people won’t get credit and bury themselves. Credit worthy people may be more inclined to take out more credit. Not sure the overall impact of a policy like that. I’d be interested to see real life impact of something like that because I can see both sides.
Yup - assuming no polling error.
Yep. As they did before with oversampling dems there is a deliberate effort to spike the polls in favor of Harris
It’s not hard to see when you look under the hood. But there are influencers on the right that poison the well so lots of people just don’t get it.
Yeah, I don't see Harris taking North Carolina.
There was a pollster out there (I don't remember the name) who said Trump has 60% chance of attaining 312.
acesfull86
Well-known member
As for the minor detail as to whether it’s constitutional?
I have no sympathy for predatory practices by private companies. Debtors are not innocent either but people are stupidly and make awful decisions that have negative impacts to the rest of us.
Trumps floor is 312 at this point. Major things can happen in between where I think that margin will grow.