I’ve come to the conclusion that my favorite part of the “widespread and irrefutable evidence of voter fraud” argument is how short-sighted they have to think some Republican state officials must have been, while also helping puppeteer a massive conspiracy against their own party. Even if they hate Donald Trump, there’s no benefit to the Republican Party and Brian Kemp to actually hide evidence of voter fraud by the Democrats. Donald Trump winning still gives them an advantage over the next 2-4 years as they can spend less time preparing for countering the Democrats policy.
2024 Field
- Thread starter Jaw
- Start date
I’ve come to the conclusion that my favorite part of the “widespread and irrefutable evidence of voter fraud” argument is how short-sighted they have to think some Republican state officials must have been, while also helping puppeteer a massive conspiracy against their own party. Even if they hate Donald Trump, there’s no benefit to the Republican Party and Brian Kemp to actually hide evidence of voter fraud by the Democrats. Donald Trump winning still gives them an advantage over the next 2-4 years as they can spend less time preparing for countering the Democrats policy.
I'm not sure why you guys keep harping on national polls. Why do we have to go over this everyday?
Trump wins 1 of PA, WI, or MI and he there is probably 90% likelihood he wins the election. Harris is losing GA and AZ by a decent margin and NC still shows strong Trump support overall. The only path Harris is pull the entire Rust belt or pull NC should she lose one of the rust belt states.
Harris is doing better. That's absolutely true. But she's still polling significantly worse than the last 2 Dem candidates.
Trump wins 1 of PA, WI, or MI and he there is probably 90% likelihood he wins the election. Harris is losing GA and AZ by a decent margin and NC still shows strong Trump support overall. The only path Harris is pull the entire Rust belt or pull NC should she lose one of the rust belt states.
Harris is doing better. That's absolutely true. But she's still polling significantly worse than the last 2 Dem candidates.
chop2chip
Well-known member
Silver has Harris with bigger leads on those 3 states then Trump has in GA and AZ
The point is that there are reasons to question if the polling has improved to a point where Donald Trump’s real level of support is being gauged. You cannot compare apples to apples, particularly compared to 2016, because polling firms have been studying why they missed for almost a decade now.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
The Real Clear Politics average ahead of the 2020 elections versus the actual (in parenthesis)
AZ Biden +0.9 (Biden 0.3)
GA Trump +1.0 (Biden 0.2)
MI Biden +4.2 (Biden 2.8)
NV Biden +2.4 (Biden 2.4)
NC Trump +0.2 (Trump 1.3)
PA Biden +1.2 (Biden 1.2)
WI Biden +6.7 (Biden 0.6)
Current RCP averages:
AZ Trump 1.6
GA Trump 1.7
MI Harris 1.7
NV Harris 0.2
NC Trump 0.1
PA Harris 0.7
WI Harris 1.0
AZ Biden +0.9 (Biden 0.3)
GA Trump +1.0 (Biden 0.2)
MI Biden +4.2 (Biden 2.8)
NV Biden +2.4 (Biden 2.4)
NC Trump +0.2 (Trump 1.3)
PA Biden +1.2 (Biden 1.2)
WI Biden +6.7 (Biden 0.6)
Current RCP averages:
AZ Trump 1.6
GA Trump 1.7
MI Harris 1.7
NV Harris 0.2
NC Trump 0.1
PA Harris 0.7
WI Harris 1.0
Or put another way, while polling isn’t exact, in any election before 2016 you’d look at Harris’ lead and reasonably consider her the front runner. Donald Trump and his base remain roughly the same as it’s always been, but the question is if the polling is closer to reality than the past two cycles. Because that’s not answerable now, I wouldn’t just blindly go one direction or the other. But many have dug their heels in.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I think some of the 2022 races might be informative. Among other thangs they illustrate some changes to the political environment post-Dobbs. But also the damage of election denialism to the GOP.
An interesting example would the the governor's race in Arizona. Lake led in most of the polls (was up 3.5 in the final RCP average). But lost by 0.7%.
I think NC and AZ will be interesting tests of the twin maga formation, with Trump-Robinson and Trump-Lake appearing in the top two races in those states. AZ also has a ballot initiative about abortion. I think that NC and AZ are the states where the Dems are most likely to outperform their polling due to polls not fulling capturing voter enthusiasm and motivation. Lots of Nikki Haley voters will stay home or vote for Harris plus some will come out to vote against absurd candidates like Robinson and Lake.
An interesting example would the the governor's race in Arizona. Lake led in most of the polls (was up 3.5 in the final RCP average). But lost by 0.7%.
I think NC and AZ will be interesting tests of the twin maga formation, with Trump-Robinson and Trump-Lake appearing in the top two races in those states. AZ also has a ballot initiative about abortion. I think that NC and AZ are the states where the Dems are most likely to outperform their polling due to polls not fulling capturing voter enthusiasm and motivation. Lots of Nikki Haley voters will stay home or vote for Harris plus some will come out to vote against absurd candidates like Robinson and Lake.
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RCP doesn't. And again, I point out everyday Harris realistically has to have a 3 point lead or better to be considered an actual lead in the rust belt. The polls were off by at least 4 points or more nearly all of those states the last 2 elections.
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nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
In 2020, the final RCP averages were off by 6.1% in Wisconsin. Otherwise, they were within 2% of the actual outcomes in all the key swing states.
Still makes you wonder how asleep at the wheel the NC Democratic Party is that this was so clearly out there and it took the Republicans throwing up a Hail Mary for it to come out. Unless they found it and sat on it because he’s such a bad candidate. And while I’d understand the politics of it, I just ****ing hate that (high) possibility.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
No one was asleep at the wheel. Just that Robinson had all of the norm-busting attributes that maga loves. He had a respectable opponent in the primary and still won 80% of the vote. Of course, non-maga folks (who often go along) are finding him a bridge too far. It is a pattern we've seen a lot. The crazies who dominate the GOP primaries nominate one of their own. And then the normie folks at some point decide that's a bit too crazy to digest. The interesting thing is it sometimes takes a really yuge helping of crazy before the normies gag and say that's too much.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
the yute are gonna save 'merica...again
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/22/...e_code=1.Mk4.CfGG.t_yzwXWuzqfr&smid=url-share
When the Michigan State University College Democrats held their weekly meetings last spring at a sprawling residential hall on campus, organizers were lucky if they could get more than 30 students to show up.
There was little enthusiasm for President Biden, the presumptive nominee whom many students regarded as too old. Laticia Martinez, a junior who is the group’s vice president, said she ultimately would have supported Mr. Biden but felt a sense of “guilt” when weighing her choices.
“I didn’t want to not vote, but it’s so hard to get behind someone who I really just didn’t feel was speaking for me,” she said. “Pretty much at that point, it was the lesser of two evils.”
But the club’s first meeting of the semester this fall drew nearly 200 students, reflecting what undergraduates say has been a surge in Democratic enthusiasm on campus since Mr. Biden dropped out and Vice President Kamala Harris became the nominee. Now Democratic candidates up and down the ticket in Michigan are hoping to capitalize on that shift to bolster their bids.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/22/...e_code=1.Mk4.CfGG.t_yzwXWuzqfr&smid=url-share
When the Michigan State University College Democrats held their weekly meetings last spring at a sprawling residential hall on campus, organizers were lucky if they could get more than 30 students to show up.
There was little enthusiasm for President Biden, the presumptive nominee whom many students regarded as too old. Laticia Martinez, a junior who is the group’s vice president, said she ultimately would have supported Mr. Biden but felt a sense of “guilt” when weighing her choices.
“I didn’t want to not vote, but it’s so hard to get behind someone who I really just didn’t feel was speaking for me,” she said. “Pretty much at that point, it was the lesser of two evils.”
But the club’s first meeting of the semester this fall drew nearly 200 students, reflecting what undergraduates say has been a surge in Democratic enthusiasm on campus since Mr. Biden dropped out and Vice President Kamala Harris became the nominee. Now Democratic candidates up and down the ticket in Michigan are hoping to capitalize on that shift to bolster their bids.
Runnin
Well-known member
They sat on the latest porn forum news for a while so they could release when Robinson would have no chance at dropping out. The Dems were not "asleep at the wheel". Robinson is toast. They just wanted him to be tied to the Felon and the GOP.
This idea that the Felon outperforms his poll numbers is probably not a thing anymore. It hasn't happened since Jan. 6 and the Roe backlash but we shall see. Remember the midterms??? If this election truly is a "turnout" election like they are saying, Harris and the Dems should ride a big blue wave of women and youth into power. They have all the enthusiasm, the money advantage and the big ground game. Meanwhile the Felon and his niece are skimming money into his pocket and offshore accounts and running their campaign on the cheap. Texas, Iowa and Florida are getting dangerously close to flipping blue. It would be funny if in the end no one even needed Pennsylvania.
Not necessarily casting doubt on the forecast, but when the official account posting these numbers is also actively posting Pro-Trump messages and boosting Trump supporters, I wouldn’t get too invested in their model.