2024 Field

nsacpi said:
https://wapo.st/4erc0nU

The FBI’s 2023 Crime in the Nation Report is based on submissions of reported crime from 16,334 law enforcement agencies, representing the vast majority of the American population. All large police departments that cover regions with more than 1 million residents, including New York and Los Angeles, contributed to the report.

According to the report, violent crime dropped 3 percent between 2022 and 2023, with murder and nonnegligent homicide down 11.6 percent. Reported rape offenses dropped 9.4 percent. Property crime decreased 2.4 percent.

The drop in murders in 2023 was the largest year-over-year decline reported by the FBI in 20 years. In 2022, there were 6.5 murders for every 100,000 people. In 2023, there were 5.7 murders for every 100,000 people.

The FBI has not yet released data for the first half of this year. But figures for 69 U.S. cities compiled by the Major City Chiefs Association show a continuation of the sharp drop in killings seen in 2023, with homicides down 17 percent compared with the same six-month period from the prior year.
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https://www.nraila.org/articles/202...teep-decline-or-another-bidenesque-wild-story

According to the CPRC, one factor contributing to the ostensible dip in violent crime is that almost 40% of local law enforcement agencies are no longer transmitting their information to the national Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) database. In “2021, 37% of police departments stopped reporting crime data to the FBI (including large departments for Chicago, Los Angeles, and New York),” and for other jurisdictions, like Baltimore and Nashville, crimes are being underreported or undercounted. This leaves a large gap; by 2021, the real crime data collected by the FBI represented only 63% of police departments overseeing just 65% of the population. When compared to pre-2021 data, the result is a questionable “decline” in crime.
 
They are despicable. But at least they proudly stand up for what they believe in, unlike today's "right", who simply bends over to whatever is polling best

[tw]1838770600946397242[/tw]
 
Carp said:
https://www.nraila.org/articles/202...teep-decline-or-another-bidenesque-wild-story

According to the CPRC, one factor contributing to the ostensible dip in violent crime is that almost 40% of local law enforcement agencies are no longer transmitting their information to the national Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) database. In “2021, 37% of police departments stopped reporting crime data to the FBI (including large departments for Chicago, Los Angeles, and New York),” and for other jurisdictions, like Baltimore and Nashville, crimes are being underreported or undercounted. This leaves a large gap; by 2021, the real crime data collected by the FBI represented only 63% of police departments overseeing just 65% of the population. When compared to pre-2021 data, the result is a questionable “decline” in crime.
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The comparison I cited was 2023 and 2024 compared to 2022. Not to pre 2021.
 
nsacpi said:
The comparison I cited was 2023 and 2024 compared to 2022. Not to pre 2021.
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It wasn't pre-2021. That was in 2021. And precincts are still not reporting data to the FBI. It isn't required.

This one from 2023:

https://www.themarshallproject.org/2023/07/13/fbi-crime-rates-data-gap-nibrs

"More than 6,000 law enforcement agencies were missing from the FBI’s national crime data last year, representing nearly one-third of the nation’s 18,000 police agencies. This means a quarter of the U.S. population wasn't represented in the federal crime data last year, according to The Marshall Project’s analysis.

The old summary-level data reporting system, retired in 2021, was also revived last year when the FBI announced that it would accept data through it again. It’s unclear how many police agencies took advantage of the opportunity because the participation data is not available yet. But many states, like Illinois, had already planned to phase out the old system.

Reporting has increased compared with 2021, the first year the FBI changed the collection system, with 2,000 more police agencies submitting their 2022 crime records. But the data gap still creates significant challenges for scholars and policymakers to make sense of crime trends"
 
Carp said:
It wasn't pre-2021. That was in 2021. And precincts are still not reporting data to the FBI. It isn't required.

This one from 2023:

https://www.themarshallproject.org/2023/07/13/fbi-crime-rates-data-gap-nibrs

"More than 6,000 law enforcement agencies were missing from the FBI’s national crime data last year, representing nearly one-third of the nation’s 18,000 police agencies. This means a quarter of the U.S. population wasn't represented in the federal crime data last year, according to The Marshall Project’s analysis."
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It isn't difficult to get things like murder rates (per capita). You simply adjust for the populations of the missing jurisdictions.

Pretty much any way you slice or dice the data, we saw a sharp rise in crime in 2021 and 2022 and a significant reversal of that in 2023 and 2024. Violent crime is down and down bigly since 2022.
 
I mean have you learned nothing from the jobs reports that keep getting adjusted down every month? Government agencies are willing to fudge the numbers whatever way they can to make themselves look better and keep their jobs.
 
Carp said:
It wasn't pre-2021. That was in 2021. And precincts are still not reporting data to the FBI. It isn't required.

This one from 2023:

https://www.themarshallproject.org/2023/07/13/fbi-crime-rates-data-gap-nibrs

"More than 6,000 law enforcement agencies were missing from the FBI’s national crime data last year, representing nearly one-third of the nation’s 18,000 police agencies. This means a quarter of the U.S. population wasn't represented in the federal crime data last year, according to The Marshall Project’s analysis."
Click to expand...

It isn't difficult to get things like murder rates (per capita). You simply adjust for the populations of the missing jurisdictions.

Pretty much any way you slice or dice the data, we saw a sharp rise in crime in 2021 and 2022 and a significant reversal of that in 2023 and 2024. Violent crime is down and down bigly since 2022.

Btw the "Marshall Project" link you shared (thank you) shows that participation in data collection has been increasing in the past two years. For example, it notes:

"In 2021, California and Florida were the only two states that were not certified with the FBI’s new data collection system on time, which meant neither state could submit any data at all by the FBI’s deadline. Starting in 2022, both states were certified to submit crime data through the FBI’s new system.

After both states began submitting data, nearly 400 California police agencies were included in the FBI’s crime data last year, which represents half of the state’s agencies. This was a significant jump from 2021, when only a handful of agencies in California that directly submitted their records to the FBI were in the federal database."
 
nsacpi said:
It isn't difficult to get things like murder rates (per capita). You simply adjust for the populations of the missing jurisdictions.

Pretty much any way you slice or dice the data, we saw a sharp rise in crime in 2021 and 2022 and a significant reversal of that in 2023 and 2024. Violent crime is down and down bigly since 2022.
Click to expand...

LMAO, that isn't how data sets work. And you say you are a professor? Yikes. I certainly hope it isn't in math.
 
Carp said:
LMAO, that isn't how data sets work. And you say you are a professor? Yikes. I certainly hope it isn't in math.
Click to expand...

Btw the "Marshall Project" link you shared (thank you) shows that participation in data collection has been increasing in the past two years. For example, it notes:

"In 2021, California and Florida were the only two states that were not certified with the FBI’s new data collection system on time, which meant neither state could submit any data at all by the FBI’s deadline. Starting in 2022, both states were certified to submit crime data through the FBI’s new system.

After both states began submitting data, nearly 400 California police agencies were included in the FBI’s crime data last year, which represents half of the state’s agencies. This was a significant jump from 2021, when only a handful of agencies in California that directly submitted their records to the FBI were in the federal database."
 
nsacpi said:
It isn't difficult to get things like murder rates (per capita). You simply adjust for the populations of the missing jurisdictions.

Pretty much any way you slice or dice the data, we saw a sharp rise in crime in 2021 and 2022 and a significant reversal of that in 2023 and 2024. Violent crime is down and down bigly since 2022.

Btw the "Marshall Project" link you shared (thank you) shows that participation in data collection has been increasing in the past two years. For example, it notes:

"In 2021, California and Florida were the only two states that were not certified with the FBI’s new data collection system on time, which meant neither state could submit any data at all by the FBI’s deadline. Starting in 2022, both states were certified to submit crime data through the FBI’s new system.

After both states began submitting data, nearly 400 California police agencies were included in the FBI’s crime data last year, which represents half of the state’s agencies. This was a significant jump from 2021, when only a handful of agencies in California that directly submitted their records to the FBI were in the federal database."
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It increased marginally. It was still missing 1/3 of the precincts in the country. This isn't hard..
 
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Carp said:
It increased marginally. It was still missing 1/3 of the precincts in the country. This isn't hard.
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If it has been INCREASING wouldn't that bias the comparison between 2023 and 2024 unfavorably with 2022. I don't believe this is insurmountable from a data analysis point of view. But if it is the bias is to make 2023 and 2024 look worse relative to 2022.

The fact of the matter is violent crime has been falling bigly in 2023 and 2024. No matter how you slice or dice the data.
 
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"Many of the largest police departments, like the NYPD and LAPD, are still missing.Some large police departments began to report data to the FBI again in 2022, like the Miami-Dade Police Department. But the two largest police agencies in the U.S., the New York Police Department and the Los Angeles Police Department, are still missing in the federal data."

Hmmm.... Missing the 2 of the highest populated and crime riddled cities in the country in the data..... it's almost like that might make affect data sets.
 
The FBI’s 2023 Crime in the Nation Report is based on submissions of reported crime from 16,334 law enforcement agencies, representing the vast majority of the American population. All large police departments that cover regions with more than 1 million residents, including New York and Los Angeles, contributed to the report.

According to the report, violent crime dropped 3 percent between 2022 and 2023, with murder and nonnegligent homicide down 11.6 percent. Reported rape offenses dropped 9.4 percent. Property crime decreased 2.4 percent.

The drop in murders in 2023 was the largest year-over-year decline reported by the FBI in 20 years. In 2022, there were 6.5 murders for every 100,000 people. In 2023, there were 5.7 murders for every 100,000 people.

The FBI has not yet released data for the first half of this year. But figures for 69 U.S. cities compiled by the Major City Chiefs Association show a continuation of the sharp drop in killings seen in 2023, with homicides down 17 percent compared with the same six-month period from the prior year.
 
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nsacpi said:
If it has been INCREASING wouldn't that bias the comparison between 2023 and 2024 unfavorably with 2022. I don't believe this is insurmountable from a data analysis point of view. But if it is the bias is to make 2023 and 2024 look worse relative to 2022.

The fact of the matter is violent crime has been falling bigly in 2023 and 2024. No matter how you slice or dice the data.
Click to expand...

It was 1 year in a system the FBI phased out and then brought back. Is the FBI still pulling data from this phased out system? 1/3 of precincts not reporting data, particularly in the highest populated cities high crime cities in the country is pretty substantial information missing.
 
Carp said:
"Many of the largest police departments, like the NYPD and LAPD, are still missing.Some large police departments began to report data to the FBI again in 2022, like the Miami-Dade Police Department. But the two largest police agencies in the U.S., the New York Police Department and the Los Angeles Police Department, are still missing in the federal data."

Hmmm.... Missing the 2 of the highest populated and crime riddled cities in the country in the data..... it's almost like that might make affect data sets.
Click to expand...

The 2023 FBI report included ALL large cities including LOS ANGELES AND NEW YORK. As you said this is NOT HARD. Homicide rates are down bigly.
 
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Lots of first time voters so far it seems in VA - Spells doom for Harris as all polling shows low propensity favors Trump.
 
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