https://static.politico.com/79/e9/eaf701084e77be9afaa85356e3b8/slf-october-memo.pdf
Republican Senate internal polling from early October doesnt look good for them. I like how this polling is done. Really great at providing context to the numbers.
Thethe's favorite "Governor" Karen Lake has an unfavourability rating of 53 in Republicans own polling. She is well on her way to being one of the worst candidates in recent memory. Generic Rep vs Generic Dem is 45 vs 46. There is a clear decline in Republican support in Arizona over the last 2 months. Karen Lake has dropped 1 point a month and Trump has gone from a 4 point lead to even with Harris. No wonder Trump never talks about Karen anymore. He doesnt want that loser rubbing off on him. Both figuarately and literally.
Governor Hogan in Maryland is very popular in a solidly blue state but down 7 points makes him an extreme longshot right now.
In Michigan the Dem Slotkin is leading the Rep Rogers 8 points. Republicans look to be in freefall in the state as it was super close just in August. Republicans had a 5 point lead in the Generic Rep vs Generic Dem polling but that is now tied at 43 a piece. Trump has gone from up 2 to down 3 in 2 months. Slotkin has gone from down 1 to up 8 in that timespan as well. I wouldnt put too much stock in a single poll but you can see Republicans trending downward through several months of polling. Republicans can probably go ahead and put this one in the L column.
In Montana the Rep candidate has a 4 point lead over the Dem Tester. Montana is a Republican stronghold so its a wonder that Tester ever got elected in the first place. Its within the realm of possibilities that Tester wins but not looking good for him right now. Polling in October has it 48/44. That leaves only 8 percent undecided and I find it hard to overcome 4 points out of the remaining 8.
In Nevada its even for Trump vs Harris at 46/46 while the Dem candidate has a 7 point lead at 36/43. Trump has made up 4 points since August to make it even for his race. Theres still 21% undecided so theres a lot of room to make up that 7 point gap in the Senate race potentially.
Trump has a solid 4 point lead in Ohio but again the Senate race heavily favors the Democrat. I dont know if Trump will raise the tide for Rep Senate candidates or if Dem Senate candidates will help Kamala in all these states.
In PA Harris has a slim 1 point lead after having a 6 point lead in August. Dems have a 2 point lead in the Senate race but only 6% undecided. The margins are slim but with so few undecided I think PA looks real good for Kamala right now.
In Texas I wouldnt bet on Cruz losing but there is definitely blood in the water. I think Allred is a much better candidate for Texas than Beto was. Showing only 1 point lead for Cruz. I would certainly cheer that ****stain losing. Theres no question imo that Trumps going to win Texas but right now I would guess he wins 52-48 which continues the trend of Texas turning purple.
Wisconsin is super close for both races. Both races look like a coinflip.
And again, these are Republicans own internal polling. I know for some of you polls you dont like are like garlic to a vampire.