2024 Field
- Thread starter Jaw
- Start date
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
If only Kamala and creepy Joe claimed to be filling every arena. Then you'd have a viable comparison.
Trump lies you don't bat an eye.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
You have no sense of humor Nancy.
On the surface that seems worrisome. Until you find out that Selzer partnered with NBC for polling in 2023. Considering this polling is extremely inconsistent with what we're seeing out of swing states like GA and AZ at the moment (which are far more purple, and overall less rural than Iowa), I'm gonna call BS on this one. Also, Emerson polling suggests Trump +10 in Iowa. So one of these is extremely wrong. Odds are that's it's Selzer.
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sturg33
I
Update. Kamala contracts are worth 48 cents tonight. I will sell tomorrow, unless a big spike for her tomorrow.
Nice little 30% gain in 4 days on a 10k bet
Tapate50
Well-known member
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
The person who gets upset about someone making fun of Der Failure calls someone else a snowflake, got to love it.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
That still is a loss for Trump. If Harris performs as well in Iowa as Biden did, then she probably does about as well as Biden did in most midwest states. Trump won Iowa by nearly 10 points in 2016.
The most likely one is NH, which was separated by 2800 votes in 2016. Small chance VA is in play for Repubs.
Tapate50
Well-known member
The 2 most recent polls that don't say Kommiela is winning Iowa, have Trump at +8 and +10..... and yet you think that is a "loss" for Trump?
Trump won Iowa by
The final national polls from most of the big pollsters seem to be in agreement that it is basically even on popular vote. All along I have said that Harris really needs to have roughly a 3 point advantage nationally to win, and I still find that to be true.
Here are my final predictions.
I believe the rust belt is closer than I thought it would be a couple months ago. But still, I think, at the very least, Wisconsin is going to flip red by about 30-40k votes. I also give Trump the slightest edge in PA, as I continue to believe that the Jewish population is going to reject the Dems pretty hard this election cycle. I have MI staying blue by the tightest of margins. But I believe NH is sneakily in play too for Trump and will again be decided by less than 1%. I also think Harris/Walz are going to underperform in MN. They still win, but by less than 5%.
Along the sun belt, I think AZ, GA, and NC will be solidly red this time. I think Trump wins AZ by 3.5 points or better. I think GA goes Trump by 2.5 points and a similar margin for NC, which I thought was in danger a couple weeks ago. NV will be closer and I have Trump winning by a margin of 1% or less, but it could easily be Kamala winning NV. However, as I have said, it is unlikely NV factors into this race regardless who wins it.
And while VA will end up blue, it will be by less than 5%.
Iowa will go Trump by 8 points or better.
Harris wins the popular vote, but by less than 1%. Dems again are triggered by the electoral college. And post incessantly about how the electoral college is outdated and claim that Harris shouldn't certify the election.
Trump 297 - Harris 241 in race that won't be the blowout thethe predicted but also not quite as close as others have stated. And a race that several other (R) nominees likely would have had commanding national lead.
Here are my final predictions.
I believe the rust belt is closer than I thought it would be a couple months ago. But still, I think, at the very least, Wisconsin is going to flip red by about 30-40k votes. I also give Trump the slightest edge in PA, as I continue to believe that the Jewish population is going to reject the Dems pretty hard this election cycle. I have MI staying blue by the tightest of margins. But I believe NH is sneakily in play too for Trump and will again be decided by less than 1%. I also think Harris/Walz are going to underperform in MN. They still win, but by less than 5%.
Along the sun belt, I think AZ, GA, and NC will be solidly red this time. I think Trump wins AZ by 3.5 points or better. I think GA goes Trump by 2.5 points and a similar margin for NC, which I thought was in danger a couple weeks ago. NV will be closer and I have Trump winning by a margin of 1% or less, but it could easily be Kamala winning NV. However, as I have said, it is unlikely NV factors into this race regardless who wins it.
And while VA will end up blue, it will be by less than 5%.
Iowa will go Trump by 8 points or better.
Harris wins the popular vote, but by less than 1%. Dems again are triggered by the electoral college. And post incessantly about how the electoral college is outdated and claim that Harris shouldn't certify the election.
Trump 297 - Harris 241 in race that won't be the blowout thethe predicted but also not quite as close as others have stated. And a race that several other (R) nominees likely would have had commanding national lead.
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