2024 Field

thethe said:
You're entitled to the wrong belief if millions of urban voters 'don't show up' that it has to do with Kamala and not being fake ballots.
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If the election is close, would you concede that it’s evidence to the contrary that “millions of fake votes” were cast
 
chop2chip said:
If the election is close, would you concede that it’s evidence to the contrary that “millions of fake votes” were cast
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'close' doesn't matter - its the vote counts in urban areaas.

Thats been my contention since late November of 2020.

Its not going to be close either way.
 
msstate7 said:
From someone that loves to gamble, there's never a sure thing unless you're in congress
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I love to gamble too, and there are no sure things, but when I believe the expected value of a bet is positive and there’s a real edge to exploit, I’m going to make a play.

If thethe thinks Trump is even 80% likely to win (which is low estimate given his rhetoric), then fair odds of a Trump bet would be -400. If books are offering -125 (which is roughly a 55% implied chance), then that’s a once in a lifetime opportunity. Not saying thethe or anyone else should stake their net worth on it (feel free to use the Kelly criterion as a starting point), but it’s clearly a smash play.
 
sturg33 said:
Buying stocks is gambling
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Gambling is a defined outcome at a point in time.

Investing is understanding a companies vision and believing in their ability to execute it in the long term.

Gamblers are always so touchy when you call gambling out for what it is.
 
thethe said:
'close' doesn't matter - its the vote counts in urban areaas.

Thats been my contention since late November of 2020.

Its not going to be close either way.
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If it’s million of fake urban votes, this election won’t even be remotely close.

I understand that’s your prediction, so I’m not sure why you won’t concede
 
chop2chip said:
If it’s million of fake urban votes, this election won’t even be remotely close.

I understand that’s your prediction, so I’m not sure why you won’t concede
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You don't concede anything unconditionally. Thats just silly talk.

Again, this won't even matter because what I've been saying for years is playing out in front of our eyes.
 
Florida early voting is looking like an absolute devastation for Democrats.

Shame they cheated us all with the census.
 
acesfull86 said:
I love to gamble too, and there are no sure things, but when I believe the expected value of a bet is positive and there’s a real edge to exploit, I’m going to make a play.

If thethe thinks Trump is even 80% likely to win (which is low estimate given his rhetoric), then fair odds of a Trump bet would be -400. If books are offering -125 (which is roughly a 55% implied chance), then that’s a once in a lifetime opportunity. Not saying thethe or anyone else should stake their net worth on it (feel free to use the Kelly criterion as a starting point), but it’s clearly a smash play.
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Yep. I couldn't pass up the value of Kamala at 37 cents a few days ago. Free money
 
thethe said:
Gambling is a defined outcome at a point in time.

Investing is understanding a companies vision and believing in their ability to execute it in the long term.

Gamblers are always so touchy when you call gambling out for what it is.
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Lol "touchy"

Simply pointing out that you are risking your money on something you can't control, with the hopes it will make you more money. Its safer gambling but still gambling
 
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Is this true - Never know who the **** is a bull**** artist on social anymore.
 
zitothebrave said:
Desantis won florida by 20 points 2 years ago. If Trump doesn't win florida he's truly incompetent.
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Nobody is questioning whether Trump is going to win.

Thats been obvious since he won in 2016 and started the big turn to make FLorida red with RDS finishing the job.

Its about how much the WHOLE electorate might move and even in a red state like FLorida you can start to learn things.
 
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