2025-2026 offseason thread

bravesnumberone said:
Crossing fingers that Ritchie, Caminiti, Fuentes, Murphy, etc. will be a successful group of MLB starters at some point.
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Since 1990, here is the complete list of SP that the Braves have drafted and who accumulated 10 WAR (per bb-ref) as a member of the Braves:

1. Kevin Millwood

Which is to say, my expectation for any given pitching prospect is low. For a group of them, it is underground.
 
Mediocre return for Nats, imo.

Rosario is a legit 50 SP in A+. The equivalent from us is probably Caminiti. But given he has so much risk, it's not the greatest headliner.

Fien is the equivalent of Southisene. Talented 1st rounder from this past draft, but a long ways away.

Fitz-Gerald is harder to place. Maybe Nacho has similar overall value, but they would probably value Fitz more since he likely has more upside, return though there is more risk.

The other guys are your typical lottery ticket international players types in rookie ball. They're no more valuable than someone like Mario Baez or Juan Mateo for us.

The Rays got a better return for a worse pitcher in Shane Baz.
 
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Carp said:
Mediocre return for Nats, imo.

Rosario is a legit 50 SP in A+. The equivalent from us is probably Caminiti.

Fien is the equivalent of Southisene.

Fitz-Gerald is harder to place. Maybe Nacho has similar overall value, but they would probably value Fitz more since he likely has more upside, return though there is more risk.

The other guys are your typical lottery ticket international players types in rookie ball. They're no more valuable than someone like Mario Baez or Juan Mateo for us.
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I wouldn't trade Caminiti and Southseine for Gore.
 
Metaphysicist said:
Since 1990, here is the complete list of SP that the Braves have drafted and who accumulated 10 WAR (per bb-ref) as a member of the Braves:

1. Kevin Millwood

Which is to say, my expectation for any given pitching prospect is low. For a group of them, it is underground.
Click to expand...
Strider and Schwellenbach will both get there. But yeah the list is lopsided.
 
Metaphysicist said:
Since 1990, here is the complete list of SP that the Braves have drafted and who accumulated 10 WAR (per bb-ref) as a member of the Braves:

1. Kevin Millwood

Which is to say, my expectation for any given pitching prospect is low. For a group of them, it is underground.
Click to expand...
If you used fangraphs, SS#1 is there, and SS#2 is half way there in 38 starts
 
For comparison:

DET: 6 (Verlander, Skubal, Thompson, Moehler, Porcello, Jeff Weaver)

CHW: 5 (Buerhle, Sale, A. Fernandez, Rodon, Sirotka)
COL: 5 (Freeland, Cook, J. Gray, Jennings, Francis)
OAK: 5 (Hudson, Mulder, Zito, Harden, S. Gray)

HOU: 4 (Oswalt, Keuchel, W. Miller, McCullers)
MIL: 4 (Sheets, Woodruff, Gallardo, Burnes)
SF: 4 (Bumgarner, Cain, Linceum, Webb)
TB: 4 (Price, Shields, Snell, Cobb)

BAL: 3 (Mussina, Bedard, Means)
KC: 3 (Greinke, Duffy, Rosado)
LAA: 3 (Jered Weaver, Lackey, Washburn)
LAD: 3 (Kershaw, Billingsley, Buehler)
MIA: 3 (Josh Johnson, Beckett, Jose Fernandez)
MIN: 3 (Radke, Baker, Berrios)
PHI: 3 (Hamels, Nola, Wolf)
PIT: 3 (Skenes, Maholm, Cole)
STL: 3 (Morris, Lynn, Flaherty)
TOR: 3 (Halladay, Stroman, Ricky Romero)
WAS: 3 (Strasburg, Zimmermann, Vazquez)

BOS: 2 (Lester, Bucholz)
CHC: 2 (Wood, Prior)
CIN: 2 (Greene, Abbott)
CLE: 2 (Sabathia, Bieber)
NYM: 2 (DeGrom, Harvey)
SD: 2 (Peavy, Joey Hamilton)
SEA: 2 (Gilbert, Paxton)
TEX: 2 (Helling, Holland)

ARI: 1 (Webb) -- Team didn't exist until 1998, so they get some slack
ATL: 1 (Millwood)
NYY: 1 (Pettite)

In conclusion, we suck at drafting a pitcher and turning him into a good, healthy Brave.
 
msstate7 said:
If you used fangraphs, SS#1 is there, and SS#2 is half way there in 38 starts
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(a) I would never use FG for historical pitching WAR because I live in the real world where Strider has given up 189 ER in his career, not a fantasy world where he has only given up 155.

(b) Soroka was half way there in one season. Hanson was halfway there. Medlen was halfway there. And then their arms (or in Soroka's case, foot) fell off, like so many others.
 
Geez, Hanson only racked up 4.9 WAR in his career? He was at 6.7 after his second year.

Also, who here knew that Mike Minor was worth eight WAR for the Rangers in 2019?
 
Metaphysicist said:
For comparison:

DET: 6 (Verlander, Skubal, Thompson, Moehler, Porcello, Jeff Weaver)

CHW: 5 (Buerhle, Sale, A. Fernandez, Rodon, Sirotka)
COL: 5 (Freeland, Cook, J. Gray, Jennings, Francis)
OAK: 5 (Hudson, Mulder, Zito, Harden, S. Gray)

HOU: 4 (Oswalt, Keuchel, W. Miller, McCullers)
MIL: 4 (Sheets, Woodruff, Gallardo, Burnes)
SF: 4 (Bumgarner, Cain, Linceum, Webb)
TB: 4 (Price, Shields, Snell, Cobb)

BAL: 3 (Mussina, Bedard, Means)
KC: 3 (Greinke, Duffy, Rosado)
LAA: 3 (Jered Weaver, Lackey, Washburn)
LAD: 3 (Kershaw, Billingsley, Buehler)
MIA: 3 (Josh Johnson, Beckett, Jose Fernandez)
MIN: 3 (Radke, Baker, Berrios)
PHI: 3 (Hamels, Nola, Wolf)
PIT: 3 (Skenes, Maholm, Cole)
STL: 3 (Morris, Lynn, Flaherty)
TOR: 3 (Halladay, Stroman, Ricky Romero)
WAS: 3 (Strasburg, Zimmermann, Vazquez)

BOS: 2 (Lester, Bucholz)
CHC: 2 (Wood, Prior)
CIN: 2 (Greene, Abbott)
CLE: 2 (Sabathia, Bieber)
NYM: 2 (DeGrom, Harvey)
SD: 2 (Peavy, Joey Hamilton)
SEA: 2 (Gilbert, Paxton)
TEX: 2 (Helling, Holland)

ARI: 1 (Webb) -- Team didn't exist until 1998, so they get some slack
ATL: 1 (Millwood)
NYY: 1 (Pettite)

In conclusion, we suck at drafting a pitcher and turning him into a good, healthy Brave.
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We traded one away, Wainright.
 
Metaphysicist said:
Since 1990, here is the complete list of SP that the Braves have drafted and who accumulated 10 WAR (per bb-ref) as a member of the Braves:

1. Kevin Millwood

Which is to say, my expectation for any given pitching prospect is low. For a group of them, it is underground.
Click to expand...
A little disingenuous because Fried came up through the Braves’ system and should be considered home grown.

Still, it paints a disheartening picture.
 
Metaphysicist said:
For comparison:

DET: 6 (Verlander, Skubal, Thompson, Moehler, Porcello, Jeff Weaver)

CHW: 5 (Buerhle, Sale, A. Fernandez, Rodon, Sirotka)
COL: 5 (Freeland, Cook, J. Gray, Jennings, Francis)
OAK: 5 (Hudson, Mulder, Zito, Harden, S. Gray)

HOU: 4 (Oswalt, Keuchel, W. Miller, McCullers)
MIL: 4 (Sheets, Woodruff, Gallardo, Burnes)
SF: 4 (Bumgarner, Cain, Linceum, Webb)
TB: 4 (Price, Shields, Snell, Cobb)

BAL: 3 (Mussina, Bedard, Means)
KC: 3 (Greinke, Duffy, Rosado)
LAA: 3 (Jered Weaver, Lackey, Washburn)
LAD: 3 (Kershaw, Billingsley, Buehler)
MIA: 3 (Josh Johnson, Beckett, Jose Fernandez)
MIN: 3 (Radke, Baker, Berrios)
PHI: 3 (Hamels, Nola, Wolf)
PIT: 3 (Skenes, Maholm, Cole)
STL: 3 (Morris, Lynn, Flaherty)
TOR: 3 (Halladay, Stroman, Ricky Romero)
WAS: 3 (Strasburg, Zimmermann, Vazquez)

BOS: 2 (Lester, Bucholz)
CHC: 2 (Wood, Prior)
CIN: 2 (Greene, Abbott)
CLE: 2 (Sabathia, Bieber)
NYM: 2 (DeGrom, Harvey)
SD: 2 (Peavy, Joey Hamilton)
SEA: 2 (Gilbert, Paxton)
TEX: 2 (Helling, Holland)

ARI: 1 (Webb) -- Team didn't exist until 1998, so they get some slack
ATL: 1 (Millwood)
NYY: 1 (Pettite)

In conclusion, we suck at drafting a pitcher and turning him into a good, healthy Brave.
Click to expand...

I’m not doubting the accuracy, but this is mind boggling. Then I immediately remembered Julio Teheran exists, and I think some rechecking needs to happen.

Either way, the more I think about it, the more I realize the Braves top pitchers do seem to flame out just as quickly as they ascended to stardom.

Strider’s days as an impact arm are very possibly over already, and Schwelly literally just broke his elbow. I guess the Braves just can’t have nice things.
 
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