2025-2026 offseason thread

Super said:
Who exactly are you arguing against? Your imagination again?

Who is trying to disprove he has no money…?
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We, as fans, want to disprove AA has no money.

Unfortunately, here are some payroll numbers from RR after dumping these BP arms: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/braves

Estimated Final 2025 Payroll: $214M
Estimated 2026 Payroll: $205M

Estimated 2026 Luxury Tax Payroll: $197M

2026 Tax Thresholds: $244M, $264M, $284M, $304M

It is possible AA has $40M or less to spend, and he very clearly neglected to mention OF as a roster need.

Are we allowed to be concerned yet? Just asking before anyone gets emotional.
 
CJ9 said:
I'm still scarred because we spent the beginning of last year's offseason convincing ourselves that declining d'Arnaud's option and restructuring Lopez and Bummer was because we were preparing to spend a ton of money. But it turned out those moves were made because we just didn't have much of it.

I think it's perfectly reasonable for people to be hesitant with their optimism because today's events feel eerily similar to the way last offseason started.
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Exactly, fans never seem to learn from past realities.
 
Super said:
Here’s my argument, I think it’s pretty simple:

I have no idea if AA has the money I’ve been hoping he has. I am of the opinion that failure to extend Kim, a Boras client, doesn’t necessarily give me any indication either way. Who knows what Boras was asking for to keep Kim out of FA? Extremely possible it was unreasonable.

I am also of the opinion that declining to retain two mid at best relief pitchers for a combined total of $12.5m provides solid indication of nothing other than AA didn’t feel those two were worth it.

At not point have I tried to prove AA does in fact have the money I hope he has. Hope this helps.
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It really isn’t difficult to understand.
 
Just to break it down even further for anyone who has questions. The real concern isn’t whether AA has money but how far the Braves are actually willing to push the luxury tax.

After declining the Kinley ($5.5M) and Pierce Johnson ($7M) options, their 2026 tax payroll sits around $205M. That leaves roughly $39M before the first threshold ($244M) and close to $60M if they’re comfortable moving into the second tier ($264M).

So technically, there’s spending room. The issue is how aggressive ownership wants to be. Crossing into those higher tiers brings heavier tax penalties, and Atlanta’s front office has been cautious about that in the past and they’ve spent big on extensions but avoided repeating the Mets/Dodgers-style luxury tax bills.

If they stay under Tier 1, we’re probably looking at $35–40M of actual flexibility — enough for one big move and a few smaller adds. But if they’re serious about pushing for another ring, they could afford to creep into Tier 2 and spend closer to $55–60M without breaking the system.

So yeah, there’s money — it just comes down to how much they’re willing to pay to win.
 
I highly doubt we are in the business of cost cutting when we made late season additions that we did (Kim, Manoah, Kinley, etc.). And why also wouldn't we have traded guys like Iggy and Pierce at the deadline to be rid of their contracts if money was going to be an issue this off-season?
 
UNCBlue012 said:
Just to break it down even further for anyone who has questions. The real concern isn’t whether AA has money but how far the Braves are actually willing to push the luxury tax.

After declining the Kinley ($5.5M) and Pierce Johnson ($7M) options, their 2026 tax payroll sits around $205M. That leaves roughly $39M before the first threshold ($244M) and close to $60M if they’re comfortable moving into the second tier ($264M).

So technically, there’s spending room. The issue is how aggressive ownership wants to be. Crossing into those higher tiers brings heavier tax penalties, and Atlanta’s front office has been cautious about that in the past and they’ve spent big on extensions but avoided repeating the Mets/Dodgers-style luxury tax bills.

If they stay under Tier 1, we’re probably looking at $35–40M of actual flexibility — enough for one big move and a few smaller adds. But if they’re serious about pushing for another ring, they could afford to creep into Tier 2 and spend closer to $55–60M without breaking the system.

So yeah, there’s money — it just comes down to how much they’re willing to pay to win.
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If what McGuirk said is true, they’ll have to blow past that 1st tier.

Who knows how much we can trust that dude though.
 
The illusion of being a luxury tax paying team came from the nature of all the extensions. They were cheap early, which made the actual payroll much lower than the luxury tax number. That effect is largely unraveled by now, so we are seeing the real payroll number, not the luxury number, becoming the limiting value.

It’s possible AA has something like $20M to spend. I’ll have to cobble together table later.
 
UNCBlue012 said:
After declining the Kinley ($5.5M) and Pierce Johnson ($7M) options, their 2026 tax payroll sits around $205M. That leaves roughly $39M before the first threshold ($244M) and close to $60M if they’re comfortable moving into the second tier ($264M).
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Fangraphs has our tax payroll at $194M FWIW

i will definitely lose a lot of enthusiasm as a fan if AA doesn't make some major moves this offseason, but sometimes you just have to accept that nothing really monumental either way has happened and reserve judgment
 
Enscheff said:
We, as fans, want to disprove AA has no money.

Unfortunately, here are some payroll numbers from RR after dumping these BP arms: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/braves

Estimated Final 2025 Payroll: $214M
Estimated 2026 Payroll: $205M

Estimated 2026 Luxury Tax Payroll: $197M

2026 Tax Thresholds: $244M, $264M, $284M, $304M

It is possible AA has $40M or less to spend, and he very clearly neglected to mention OF as a roster need.

Are we allowed to be concerned yet? Just asking before anyone gets emotional.
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I think you can be concerned for several reasons, none of which include declining to pay tyler kinley $5.5m
 
Enscheff said:
Exactly, fans never seem to learn from past realities.
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Once again, who are you even talking about?

I’m very concerned AA doesn’t have a lot of money. But I’m not stupid enough to believe letting kinley walk gives me any indication one way or another. In fact, I’d be more concerned about AA’s decision making if he thought paying tyler kinley $5.5m was a good idea.
 
UNCBlue012 said:
The team also declined David Fletcher's $8M option, so they've created $20.5M in space.
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Wow. Wow. AA must have no money. Otherwise he would’ve picked up this option, because it’s a sound idea to pick it up. AA better prove he has money before FA begins or I’ll get even more upset.
 
Super said:
Like, deciding to pay tyler kinley $5.5m would’ve eased some concerns, dog? It would’ve done the opposite for me. Bizarro chef today
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Again, logic. You’re almost there actually.

Declining Kinley did not prove he has no money. It also did not prove he has money. As fans we want signs he has money, and declining Kinley was not such a sign. That’s all.

Literally nobody wants Kinley or Fletcher.
 
Enscheff said:
Again, logic. You’re almost there actually.

Declining Kinley did not prove he has no money. It also did not prove he has money. As fans we want signs he has money, and declining Kinley was not such a sign. That’s all.

Literally nobody wants Kinley or Fletcher.
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This has been amongst the dumbest shit I’ve ever read here and that’s really saying something.

So you are acknowledging that declining kinley’s option means nothing either way? Are you off your meds or something?
 
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