2025-2026 offseason thread

UNCBlue012 said:
Robert Suarez is a free agent. With no QO attached. 😁

I honestly think Holmes finds his way back into the rotation. I prefer him in the bullpen because the splits show he's clearly elite the first time or two through the order before turning into a pumpkin. Really, add both to the bullpen and it's in great shape.
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True. I like Robert Suarez too.
 
UNCBlue012 said:
Most people don’t realize the Braves can flip their farm from bottom-10 to almost top-10 with a good draft thanks to the extra picks and bonus pool money. It’s not something fans obsess over, but it’s a big deal when you’re talking trade leverage. That extra capital goes a long way.
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No. Probably not.

I'm not sure the best draft in history ever did that.
 
UNCBlue012 said:
You could say the same about Lopez, but both have been mentioned by the Braves and AA as likely rotation options for now.
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If Holmes and Lopez are truly primary rotation options then AA learned nothing over the last year+, and nobody gets to use the "pitchers are risky" excuse when the rotation falls apart by the break. Pitchers are risky, but there are degrees of riskiness, and those guys are at the extreme top of that riskiness scale. Hell, all the Braves SPs are at/near the top of that scale.
 
Enscheff said:
The difference between Ranger Suarez and someone like Bassitt is not great enough to warrant giving up the 26th pick in the draft.

Hopefully AA is still smart enough to realize that.
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Couldn't say it any better. Bassitt and the pick with extra bonus pool money > Suarez or anybody else
 
Carp said:
I don't believe Buxton has nearly the value you think he does.

He's over 30. And while he does a have a below market contract, anyone trading for him knows that the odds he plays in more than 120ish games in the field is pretty slim. So you're not quite getting the same value out of that contract you would normally expect. And his no trade clause limits the amount of teams you can trade him to without his permission.
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120 games of Buxton in the field is still worth about 5 WAR

You’re absolutely giving up one of your top pitching prospects whether it be Caminiti, Fuentes or Ritchie PLUS others…adding Joe Ryan or Pablo Lopez would be a fairly large package imo

What were you thinking?
 
While it would be dumb to give up the extra pick on a questionable signing, you guys really seem to give way too much of a shit about the #26 pick. I, a man who has spent many hours of my life staring at the Braves draft history on bb-ref, am much more jaded. Braves have spent my whole adult life picking in the 20s, and here's this millennium's results:

2001: #24, Macay McBride (-0.2 career WAR)
2001: #29, Josh Burrus (never made MLB)
2002: #23, Jeff Francoeur (lol, averaged less than 1 WAR a year over his storied Braves career)
2005: #27, Joey Devine (2 career WAR, killed by Chris Burke)
2006: #26, Cody Johnson (never made MLB, worst swing hitch in history)
2011: #28, Sean Gilmartin (1.1 WAR, none with us, dumped for corpse of Ryan Doumit)
2012: #21, Lucas Sims (2.4 career WAR, -0.2 with us)
2015: #28, Michael Soroka (5.7 WAR with us, RIP to my Canadian King)
2019: #21, Braden Shewmake (-0.7 career WAR, currently starring off-broadway in the Slenderman Musical)
2020: #25, Jared Shuster (0.6 career WAR, when combined with Soroka and Shewmake, collectively worth 3/5 of Aaron Bummer).
2021: #24, Ryan Cusick (zero MLB IP, on his fifth organization).

Across 20 years, that's one good season of Mike Soroka, give or take your tolerance for whatever Francouer was doing. 2022 and 2023 got us Murphy and Waldrep, so maybe they break the spell, but I'm not gonna count those chickens.

Even ignoring the Braves' particularly bad track record, general MLB expected surplus value of a #26 pick, is probably like 1-2 WAR. It's not worth crying over that to get someone we actually need.
 
Super said:
Idk how Olson gets replaced for $22m over the next four years. That deal is fine to good.
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Frankly, that really undersells it--this deal is amazing. He's the exact age Freddie was when he signed for $6/162, and he's coming off a 6 bWAR year, tied for 5th in the NL, highest in MLB for 1B. Josh Naylor has had maybe one good season and just signed for 5/$92.5. People are talking about Alonso possibly getting nine figures. Olson at 4/88 through age 35 is about as good as it gets.
 
Metaphysicist said:
While it would be dumb to give up the extra pick on a questionable signing, you guys really seem to give way too much of a shit about the #26 pick. I, a man who has spent many hours of my life staring at the Braves draft history on bb-ref, am much more jaded. Braves have spent my whole adult life picking in the 20s, and here's this millennium's results:

2001: #24, Macay McBride (-0.2 career WAR)
2001: #29, Josh Burrus (never made MLB)
2002: #23, Jeff Francoeur (lol, averaged less than 1 WAR a year over his storied Braves career)
2005: #27, Joey Devine (2 career WAR, killed by Chris Burke)
2006: #26, Cody Johnson (never made MLB, worst swing hitch in history)
2011: #28, Sean Gilmartin (1.1 WAR, none with us, dumped for corpse of Ryan Doumit)
2012: #21, Lucas Sims (2.4 career WAR, -0.2 with us)
2015: #28, Michael Soroka (5.7 WAR with us, RIP to my Canadian King)
2019: #21, Braden Shewmake (-0.7 career WAR, currently starring off-broadway in the Slenderman Musical)
2020: #25, Jared Shuster (0.6 career WAR, when combined with Soroka and Shewmake, collectively worth 3/5 of Aaron Bummer).
2021: #24, Ryan Cusick (zero MLB IP, on his fifth organization).

Across 20 years, that's one good season of Mike Soroka, give or take your tolerance for whatever Francouer was doing. 2022 and 2023 got us Murphy and Waldrep, so maybe they break the spell, but I'm not gonna count those chickens.

Even ignoring the Braves' particularly bad track record, general MLB expected surplus value of a #26 pick, is probably like 1-2 WAR. It's not worth crying over that to get someone we actually need.
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It’s not about who gets picked with the pick. It’s about the extra pool money that allows them to try for better guys.
 
Metaphysicist said:
While it would be dumb to give up the extra pick on a questionable signing, you guys really seem to give way too much of a shit about the #26 pick. I, a man who has spent many hours of my life staring at the Braves draft history on bb-ref, am much more jaded. Braves have spent my whole adult life picking in the 20s, and here's this millennium's results:

2001: #24, Macay McBride (-0.2 career WAR)
2001: #29, Josh Burrus (never made MLB)
2002: #23, Jeff Francoeur (lol, averaged less than 1 WAR a year over his storied Braves career)
2005: #27, Joey Devine (2 career WAR, killed by Chris Burke)
2006: #26, Cody Johnson (never made MLB, worst swing hitch in history)
2011: #28, Sean Gilmartin (1.1 WAR, none with us, dumped for corpse of Ryan Doumit)
2012: #21, Lucas Sims (2.4 career WAR, -0.2 with us)
2015: #28, Michael Soroka (5.7 WAR with us, RIP to my Canadian King)
2019: #21, Braden Shewmake (-0.7 career WAR, currently starring off-broadway in the Slenderman Musical)
2020: #25, Jared Shuster (0.6 career WAR, when combined with Soroka and Shewmake, collectively worth 3/5 of Aaron Bummer).
2021: #24, Ryan Cusick (zero MLB IP, on his fifth organization).

Across 20 years, that's one good season of Mike Soroka, give or take your tolerance for whatever Francouer was doing. 2022 and 2023 got us Murphy and Waldrep, so maybe they break the spell, but I'm not gonna count those chickens.

Even ignoring the Braves' particularly bad track record, general MLB expected surplus value of a #26 pick, is probably like 1-2 WAR. It's not worth crying over that to get someone we actually need.
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Very good points, all.

I still wouldn’t give up the 26th pick to upgrade from Bassitt to Ranger.
 
steveAKAslick said:
120 games of Buxton in the field is still worth about 5 WAR

You’re absolutely giving up one of your top pitching prospects whether it be Caminiti, Fuentes or Ritchie PLUS others…adding Joe Ryan or Pablo Lopez would be a fairly large package imo

What were you thinking?
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I think most people can recognize he's not actually a 5 WAR player, especially at age 32.

Again, the injury history is a problem. As is the no trade clause.

Using fangraphs data on surplus value and prospect future value, I think we can put together a decent idea of what it might cost. I would comfortably expect Buxton to provide roughly 9-10 WAR over the remaining 3 years of his deal. That's roughly 90-100 million in surplus value. Subtract his salary commitments, and you're left with roughly 50-60 million in surplus value (he's got some performance incentives that make this hard to quantify). 50- 60 surplus value is worth roughly one 55 FV player along with a lottery ticket type of prospect. Or two 50 FV types and a lottery ticket type.

FG hasn't updated their prospect list to know exactly how our prospects are valued. But I feel comfortable in saying Ritchie and Murphy will at least be 50 FV types, while Fuentes and Cam might be 55's. My offer for Buxton would be something like Ritchie, Murphy, and a prospect or two ranked outside our top 15.
 
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