2025-2026 offseason thread

so to that, you guys think AA is going to add another expensive SS to the team pushing Dubon to the bench as well. So the braves, after spending a few 100K on the bench the last 15 years, is all of a sudden have 20 million riding the bench 70% of the time...

gotcha.
 
Carp said:
The salary is still a hurdle for most teams. 6/186 is right around the range he would probably get in FA given that he's already 31 and will be 32 to shortly after the start of the season. And he's not exactly the picture of health, missing an average of 40+ games over the last 3 years. Maybe he gets 200 million but it's certainly not a lock at his age and injury history.

Again, the Devers trade (and somewhat the Stanton trade) should be the baseline for this sort of trade.
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On the other hand, the Phillies just agreed to pay Kyle Schwarber, a guy with no position who has hit as well as Seager once in his career, $30 million through age 38.

If Seager were a FA this offseason he'd be looking at 6/240 or more
 
cajunrevenge said:
First he counts for 9.5 million against the luxury cap, He is a lifetime .820 OPS vs RHP. .826 last year. He had career bests in walks/strikeouts and exit velocity. Keep in mind his home park in SF is one of the worst hitters parks. He is also a better defender than Acuna/Profar. Combine Yas with a lefty masher like Miguel Andujar and they can combine to post a .850 OPS.
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the cap means nothing to the Braves right now.. it real salary now. They are fast approaching all time highs and haven't addressed pitching still. Like I said, this is probably it for the offense unless we see a trade of some type that gets rid of an extension player.. Just my thoughts personally.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
sure.. I agree. But the Braves are NOT going to add another expensive bat to the mix.. Do we even think that twit2.0 can handle what the Braves have right now without cue cards..
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It's obvious that AA is setting up a roster to take advantage of platoon splits. I'm guessing AA took Weiss to the side and reminded him of the run in 2021 when snit did what was advised. I think Weiss is being hired with the understanding he's there to keep the clubhouse happy, but he will be advised on how to make the in-game decisions
 
rawwr said:
On the other hand, the Phillies just agreed to pay Kyle Schwarber, a guy with no position who has hit as well as Seager once in his career, $30 million through age 38.

If Seager were a FA this offseason he'd be looking at 6/240 or more
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I think that might be a bit high. I have a feeling teams would probably cap out at 35..especially at 6 years. But even looking at your 40 million figure, he is only accumulating 9 million surplus value per year or basically 1 war of value per year or 6 war total. that is not a huge haul of prospects to cover that.
 
msstate7 said:
It's obvious that AA is setting up a roster to take advantage of platoon splits. I'm guessing AA took Weiss to the side and reminded him of the run in 2021 when snit did what was advised. I think Weiss is being hired with the understanding he's there to keep the clubhouse happy, but he will be advised on how to make the in-game decisions
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I hope this is true. or at least let Hugh Hefner handle the pitching changes and twit2.0 can only have to focus on the lineup and offense subs.
 
msstate7 said:
It's obvious that AA is setting up a roster to take advantage of platoon splits. I'm guessing AA took Weiss to the side and reminded him of the run in 2021 when snit did what was advised. I think Weiss is being hired with the understanding he's there to keep the clubhouse happy, but he will be advised on how to make the in-game decisions
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We need more to play the platoon game. It might look okay when everyones healthy but we probably wont even make it to opening day healthy.
 
rawwr said:
On the other hand, the Phillies just agreed to pay Kyle Schwarber, a guy with no position who has hit as well as Seager once in his career, $30 million through age 38.

If Seager were a FA this offseason he'd be looking at 6/240 or more
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Maybe. It's hard to say. What Bichette ultimately gets will have a lot of bearing towards that assumption, seeing as he is only 27 (28 shortly after the season starts). Teams have been shy towards giving mega contracts with lots of years to players already well into their 30s.

Either way, 6/186 is not especially cheap, even if it's likely on the lower end of potential salaries he could theoretically get as a FA.
 
I absolutely think AA will add another big bat to the team at SS. Dubon will be the super sub on the INF and Yaz will be the OF equivalent. We needed depth bad after the past couple of years and AA finally realized it. Dubon won't be the starting SS going into ST. The upgrade will have to be quite a bit better than Dubon to make the cost make sense though. Seager makes so much sense it's crazy. The Rangers need to cut money and we need a SS. The Rangers smartest move would be to trade him this offseason before he ages another year that could tank his value. Sean Murphy won't be traded imo but I do think Ritchie would have to be in it bc other teams are gonna be involved.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
I think that might be a bit high. I have a feeling teams would probably cap out at 35..especially at 6 years. But even looking at your 40 million figure, he is only accumulating 9 million surplus value per year or basically 1 war of value per year or 6 war total. that is not a huge haul of prospects to cover that.
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At 180 million, he doesn't have much surplus value, if any on the FG scale. I think generously, you might expect him to generate 20 fWAR over his remaining contract. It's probably going to be closer to 15, but we'll call it 20 to be generous. His 180 million contract counter acts most of that value.

Granted, most teams will value that production on the front end pretty highly, so the surplus model isn't the going to be super accurate here. But if they get anything better than 1 top 50ish prospect and some lottery tickets, or 2 borderline top 100 prospects and some lottery tickets, I would be really surprised. My trade package might be a little light but I was basing it off the Devers trade. The point remains that they aren't likely to be get a huge prospect haul here.
 
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Carp said:
At 180 million, he doesn't have much surplus value, if any on the FG scale. I think generously, you might expect him to generate 20 fWAR over his remaining contract. It's probably going to be closer to 15, but we'll call it 20 to be generous. His 180 million contract counter acts most of that value.

Granted, most teams will value that production on the front end pretty highly, so the surplus model isn't the going to be super accurate here. But if they get anything better than 1 top 50ish prospect and some lottery tickets, or 2 borderline top 100 prospects and some lottery tickets, I would be really surprised.
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I never feel the surplus/war scale works well with superstars.. So I was just using what some might think he would get in the open market today.

so if he would actually get 6/240.. you would be saving 50 million over 6 years right now. that is about 9 million a year in savings.. That amount of savings is not worth much more than what you said.. a fringy top prospect and a few lottery tickets.. or a fringy top prospect ready for MLB action and some filler.
 
I have long had a man crush on Seager. So obviously I would be for it. I would think Murphy has to be in it. AA doesnt sound too high on Waldrep. Thats a good starting point imo. Elder is out of options and went to college at Texas. I think he has some value even if barely existent. Throw in Daysbel because their pen sucks and Lodise for good measure. I think thats a solid offer.
 
cajunrevenge said:
I have long had a man crush on Seager. So obviously I would be for it. I would think Murphy has to be in it. AA doesnt sound too high on Waldrep. Thats a good starting point imo. Elder is out of options and went to college at Texas. I think he has some value even if barely existent. Throw in Daysbel because their pen sucks and Lodise for good measure. I think thats a solid offer.
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I am all onboard with Seager too.. I think your package is probably enough to do it.. not sure if Daysbel does anything.. but Waldrep alone is pretty good. Murphy balances money and gives them hopefully a good catcher..SS lottery ticket and maybe a pitching lottery ticket to replace Daysbel.

left out Elder.. he is a nice piece that might help the package.. he doesn't have a ton of value, but he isn't a cast off either.
 
and I would love for the Yaz signing signal that the Braves are about to go crazy on spending and going to add more to the offense. having another big bat at SS would be incredible. I just don't see it based on what has happened in the past. It is too big of a jump to realistically expect.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
Murph has negative trade value.. horrible 2025 and was injured to finish the year.. no one is giving any value for Murph at this point.
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All the more reason to keep him. Esp if we take him at his word: he says the hip has been bothering him for last few seasons intermittently. If this is true, there's potential we see the 5 fWAR monster of 2023 again
 
bravesfanMatt said:
so to that, you guys think AA is going to add another expensive SS to the team pushing Dubon to the bench as well. So the braves, after spending a few 100K on the bench the last 15 years, is all of a sudden have 20 million riding the bench 70% of the time...

gotcha.
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This also is the team reportedly trying to sign multiple high end closers. People need to rethink how the Braves spend money. They will spend but not in terms of big long term contracts. 3 years 60 million deal goes south its a setback. a 7 year 300 million contract goes bad and its an albatross. They prefer to pay more for less long term risk,
 
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