2025-2026 offseason thread

Super said:
Lol whatever man. Kim played 48 games last year and was worth 0.3 fWAR. If he gets 3/$45 or more and you don’t believe Murphy would as a free agent, I don’t know what to tell you.

Murphy was worth as much as JTR was last year while playing part time and injured. He’s 3.5 years younger. He put up 5 WAR way back in 2023. You sincerely don’t think teams would expect ~6 WAR out of Murphy the next three seasons?
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I think a player currently on the shelf due a surgery without a firm timeline to return who is coming off consecutive mediocre offensive seasons in which he missed 75+ games each season, probably isn't a good bet to receive a 3 year deal at market rates.

Kim is healthy. He proved his arm is not an issue and is still a great fielder. The only things teams are doing is betting that bat returns to pre-injury form, which there isn't much indication that it won't.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
pretty simple really..

lets say Texas and the Braves are in agreeance to trade Seager for Ritchie and one of the newly drafted SS.. but the Braves say, wait, we need to include MethHead to afford Seager. the Braves are not going to get another prospect for that.. so he didn't add any value to the trade other than salary relief for the Braves.. maybe negative is too hard a word for you.. but he still doesn't add to the deal....
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He adds to the deal by us getting Seager for 16 million per for the next 3 years. Murphy no doubt gets more than 3/45 if he were a FA and didn't have hip surgery.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
depends on how you value Degrom.. do you think he can throw 180+ innings or is he going to be hurt again. but I think taking on Degrom's money would actually make Seager almost free.
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Exactly, and have Degrom pitch very few innings in the regular season. Something even less than what the Yankees used to do with Clemens coming back midseason. He's only here to focus on the most critical high leverage games of the whole year. If he pitches ~100 innings in the regular season and they win 1-2 world series out of the deal, kinda so what - if the team can afford the freight.

The Rangers just might do it.
 
Carp said:
I think a player currently on the shelf due a surgery without a firm timeline to return who is coming off consecutive mediocre offensive seasons in which he missed 75+ games each season, probably isn't a good bet to receive a 3 year deal at market rates.

Kim is healthy. He proved his arm is not an issue and is still a great fielder. The only things teams are doing is betting that bat returns to pre-injury form, which there isn't much indication that it won't.
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$15m isn’t market rate for Murphy.

Murphy has been worth the same amount as Kim the past two years.

You’re the one who made the Kim comparison, but you’re backtracking now because you know Kim will exceed Robert Suarez money. When he does, it’s a solid indication that Murphy would, too.

I’ll say again that teams would run to trade at a minimum a 40 prospect for Murphy. That is not indicative of negative value.
 
Jaw said:
If Murphy was put on waivers he would be claimed. This is silly.
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That's not an accurate assessment of the situation.

There are many players with heavy contracts that would likely get claimed by some team with a lot of money if they were put on waivers. But it's doubtful they would receive the same contract offer if they were a FA right now.

Like Sonny Gray for instance. I'm sure some team would have easily claimed him if he were put on waivers where he cost nothing but cash. If he were a FA however, there is virtually zero chance that someone is going to offer him 40 million for the 2026 season.
 
Super said:
$15m isn’t market rate for Murphy.

Murphy has been worth the same amount as Kim the past two years.

You’re the one who made the Kim comparison, but you’re backtracking now because you know Kim will exceed Robert Suarez money. When he does, it’s a solid indication that Murphy would, too.

I’ll say again that teams would run to trade at a minimum a 40 prospect for Murphy. That is not indicative of negative value.
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No one is back tracking. I compared him to Kim of 2024, who had to settle for 2/29 while coming off a major surgery. And Kim by the way, was coming off of 3 consecutive seasons of very good performance at the time, compared to Murphy who has been mediocre with the bat for 2 consecutive seasons.

I mentioned Kim MIGHT not even get 3/45 now even though he's healthy, but we would see.
 
my dude it's ok to admit you're wrong

a catcher 2 years removed from a 5 WAR season who has put up more WAR even in his down years than robert suarez is not worth less than robert suarez
 
Carp said:
No one is back tracking. I compared him to Kim of 2024, who had to settle for 2/29 while coming off a major surgery. And Kim by the way, was coming off of 3 consecutive seasons of very good performance at the time, compared to Murphy who has been mediocre with the bat for 2 consecutive seasons.

I mentioned Kim MIGHT not even get 3/45 now even though he's healthy, but we would see.
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So you don’t think Murphy would fetch even a 40 prospect in a trade?
 
Carp said:
That's not an accurate assessment of the situation.

There are many players with heavy contracts that would likely get claimed by some team with a lot of money if they were put on waivers. But it's doubtful they would receive the same contract offer if they were a FA right now.

Like Sonny Gray for instance. I'm sure some team would have easily claimed him if he were put on waivers where he cost nothing but cash. If he were a FA however, there is virtually zero chance that someone is going to offer him 40 million for the 2026 season.
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I think someone like DeGrom is another guy. If Texas put him on waivers, a few teams would probably take him.. but no team is giving up anything over a 40fv for him and no team is giving him 2/75 with a 3rd year mutual option..

Texas could add DeGrom to the Seager package and it would probably hurt the return because no one wants to take on that kind of salary for an aging oft injured player.
 
rawwr said:
my dude it's ok to admit you're wrong

a catcher 2 years removed from a 5 WAR season who has put up more WAR even in his down years than robert suarez is not worth less than robert suarez
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reliever WAR is undervalued in comparison to everyday players and even starting pitchers. not a fair comparison

position players (catchers/SS/CF especially) get a defensive boost on dWar already... Murph oWar is less over the last 2 years than Roberts last year total.
 
Lol deGrom is a 37 year old pitcher who’s been injured for way more than two seasons, making 2.5x what Murphy makes. Yeah, totally comparable.
 
Another point on Yaz. He's in like the top 5% of players who pull the ball in the air. For lefties he's leaving a park that's one of the worst for lefties to hit homers in to a park that's in the top 10. Could lead to a bit more production.
 
The entire point of ALL of this, is you said Murphy easily clears 3/45. That's certainly not a sure thing with his injury.

Would Texas take him? Maybe. But he isn't providing any real value to the deal.
 
So should the Braves trade Murph?? Lets ask that question.

reasons for:
he is making 15 million
the addition of Yaz pushes him or Drake to part time player at best
great trade value that a lot of teams covet

reason against:
Drake injury


seems logical that the Braves should trade him and get a good return.. couldn't the Braves find that insurance with a better SS and a middling back up C.... 15 million would go a long way towards achieving that goal.
 
Carp said:
That's not an accurate assessment of the situation.

There are many players with heavy contracts that would likely get claimed by some team with a lot of money if they were put on waivers. But it's doubtful they would receive the same contract offer if they were a FA right now.

Like Sonny Gray for instance. I'm sure some team would have easily claimed him if he were put on waivers where he cost nothing but cash. If he were a FA however, there is virtually zero chance that someone is going to offer him 40 million for the 2026 season.
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Wait what? If you claim a guy off waivers you are exactly taking on that contract. Why would someone do that and not be willing to give the exact same deal in free agency?

But either way, you wouldn’t claim a guy with negative value.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
So should the Braves trade Murph?? Lets ask that question.

reasons for:
he is making 15 million
the addition of Yaz pushes him or Drake to part time player at best
great trade value that a lot of teams covet

reason against:
Drake injury


seems logical that the Braves should trade him and get a good return.. couldn't the Braves find that insurance with a better SS and a middling back up C.... 15 million would go a long way towards achieving that goal.
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I am not in favor of trading players at their lowest value.

I’m not sure who said he has great trade value but I guess it’s straw man time of the discussion. Non-negative trade value != great trade value, just to be clear.

I think he’ll be more valuable to the Braves than whatever they’d get in a trade in this moment. To be clear, again: that does not mean he has negative trade value.

If you don’t think teams would trade a 40 prospect at minimum for him, you’re out of your mind and not thinking logically.
 
Jaw said:
Wait what? If you claim a guy off waivers you are exactly taking on that contract. Why would someone do that and not be willing to give the exact same deal in free agency?

But either way, you wouldn’t claim a guy with negative value.
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Lol claiming off waivers is exactly the same as paying them that contract as a FA…the refusal to admit that saying Murphy has negative value is dumb is leading some into the most illogical conclusions.
 
Jaw said:
Wait what? If you claim a guy off waivers you are exactly taking on that contract. Why would someone do that and not be willing to give the exact same deal in free agency?

But either way, you wouldn’t claim a guy with negative value.
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Because the team has no negotiating power on a waiver deal. They may take a chance because they have the money. That doesn't mean they would be willing to severely outbid everyone else in a free market.

Again, someone would likely claim Sonny Gray for no prospect value. But he isn't getting that contract in FA right now.

Consider Carlos Correa, who was entirely a salary dump by Minny.

There is virtually zero chance he is getting 3/100 on the open market right now with the decline he experienced both with the bat and the glove. Didn't stop Houston from trading for him as a salary dump.
 
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