2025-2026 offseason thread

Only one person above mentioned this - but at the time with the new bigger bag, the pitch clock, and the limited number of throws that could be made to first rule…… everyone was freaking out about stolen bases would be exploding - we had to improve there immediately and it was widely considered (by me especially) that Murphy would be a much better weapon against the SB than Bill. The SBs are obviously higher, but not incredibly so….

Said differently in short, Murphy was, in part, acquired to help us adapt to the new rule and I thought it was brilliant at the time…
 
Enscheff said:
This is not accurate. Anyone who bothered to do any research understood his 850 OPS over 376 PAs in 2022 was mostly legit. He was, at absolute worst, a cheap 800+ OPS DH who could spend some time at C, and hasn't meaningfully improved offensively other than cutting out some Ks that didn't affect his overall results.

The fact the Brewers were able to immediately turn him into a positive behind the plate speaks more towards a deficiency in the Braves development system than anything else.
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so you expected him to go from a 2 WAR player in 2022 to a nearly 6 WAR player in 2023?
 
NYCBrave said:
so you expected him to go from a 2 WAR player in 2022 to a nearly 6 WAR player in 2023?
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to be fair on that 2 war number... he only started as catcher in 50 some odd games that year.. So double that to 100 and that alone is a 2 war bump on his total (assuming all things remain the same, which is an unknown) so assuming his .800+ OPS was real.. even small increases in his defense and more playing time would make a 4-5 win projection very reasonable
 
Metaphysicist said:
In 2023, ZIPS projected Wild Bill as a 1.7 WAR player and Murphy as a a 3.8 WAR player. That’s the “objective” starting point.

When healthy, Murphy has played as expected. Contreras has beat his projection handily. If you saw that coming, congrats, nobody cares.
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That’s fair. But Zips uses historical performance and performance curves along with comps to build a projection. It is a model that will never assume more playing time or starting time at a position. It would assume he would play the same number of games as always while being a DH/catcher. It would have never predicted a jump because it assumed WC was going to be used like the Braves used him.

I think it is fair a lot of fans thought Murph was going to be better. But a GM’s job is to be better than fans and actually apply logic when evaluating a trade. WC inputs offensively were elite. As good as the Braves have been at developing catchers, they should have assumed he would also get better defensively as well.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
It is a model that will never assume more playing time or starting time at a position. It would assume he would play the same number of games as always while being a DH/catcher. It would have never predicted a jump because it assumed WC was going to be used like the Braves used him.
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Wrong. Dan Szymborski uses predicted depth charts when running the sim. Those numbers have the two within about 50 PA of each other.
 
Yeah, it's beyond awesome for only a year. Fills a huge need, gives additional flexibility for Dubón to play all over. Absolutely pumped. Also, Alex has spent like $60M this offseason. 👀
 
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