4/21/21: Braves @ Skanks - Run it back

Needed this one after the anemic performance last night. Good bounceback.

If the Hawks can pull out a win in Madison Square Garden, the NY tabloid back pages tomorrow can say something along the lines of "Atlanta Turns the Tables--Torches NY!"
 
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Just read an interesting post on other site: despite everything we are only 1.5 games out of first ... whole team hurt, replay BS, extra inning BS, nobody hitting but Ronnie and Freddie, etc etc, but yet ... only 1.5 back. We coming ....
 
Small sample size example...
Riley's splits are absurd.

.174 at home/.310 away.
.182 during the day/.300 at night.

Why? He's 5/8 with 3BB and 2 HBP in the last 3 games. All at night. All on the road.

That said, Riley's K% is down around 20% and his BB% is up around 10% so far in 2021. Reason for optimism?
 
OcalaBrave said:
Small sample size example...
Riley's splits are absurd.

.174 at home/.310 away.
.182 during the day/.300 at night.

Why? He's 5/8 with 3BB and 2 HBP in the last 3 games. All at night. All on the road.

That said, Riley's K% is down around 20% and his BB% is up around 10% so far in 2021. Reason for optimism?
Click to expand...

You can tell that Riley is really trying to cover his weaknesses. The problem, at least so far, is that covering his weaknesses caused a bunch of issues in the power department. If he can somehow find the balance there, he will be a decent player. I want that for him, mainly because you can tell how much work he is putting in. Also because he got punched by a baseball last night.
 
Dalyn said:
You can tell that Riley is really trying to cover his weaknesses. The problem, at least so far, is that covering his weaknesses caused a bunch of issues in the power department. If he can somehow find the balance there, he will be a decent player. I want that for him, mainly because you can tell how much work he is putting in. Also because he got punched by a baseball last night.
Click to expand...

They Heyward'd my boy!
 
OcalaBrave said:
Small sample size example...
Riley's splits are absurd.

.174 at home/.310 away.
.182 during the day/.300 at night.

Why? He's 5/8 with 3BB and 2 HBP in the last 3 games. All at night. All on the road.

That said, Riley's K% is down around 20% and his BB% is up around 10% so far in 2021. Reason for optimism?
Click to expand...


Nope. But there is reason to believe
 
OcalaBrave said:
Small sample size example...
Riley's splits are absurd.

.174 at home/.310 away.
.182 during the day/.300 at night.

Why? He's 5/8 with 3BB and 2 HBP in the last 3 games. All at night. All on the road.

That said, Riley's K% is down around 20% and his BB% is up around 10% so far in 2021. Reason for optimism?
Click to expand...

Yep. 4 days ago, his home and away splits were almost identical.
 
Smith's main problem early on has been the walks. He still has a 2.46 FIP and he's got a 14.6 K/9. In all likelihood, his walk rate will eventually settle down and we'll forget these past 3 weeks ever happened.
 
Carp said:
Smith's main problem early on has been the walks. He still has a 2.46 FIP and he's got a 14.6 K/9. In all likelihood, his walk rate will eventually settle down and we'll forget these past 3 weeks ever happened.
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His biggest problem is his slider is either really good or nonexistent. He had a fantastic one to grab the K last night but otherwise, it was terrible.
 
thewupk said:
So despite our "offensive issues" the Braves are 3rd in the NL in runs and wOBA.
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And that's a cold stretch - quite possibly the longest of the season.

There's simply no way Ozuna, Ozzie, d'Arnaud, and Dansby continue to be this cold/unlucky. Everyone's spoiled because this team didn't have more than two guys go cold at the same time during a once-in-a-lifetime 60 game season. A 20 game hot stretch all of a sudden makes this the best offense in baseball again. This stretch kinda screams Snitker to me - he talks a lot about riding the hot hand, but when you look closely he's just talking. He's going to play "his guys" (as in Markakis, etc.) and let them hit their way out of slumps/bad luck. Neither Ozuna or Dansby has had a day off yet, d'Arnaud has played 17 times, and Ozzie has played in 16 of the 18 games.
 
OcalaBrave said:
Small sample size example...
Riley's splits are absurd.

.174 at home/.310 away.
.182 during the day/.300 at night.

Why? He's 5/8 with 3BB and 2 HBP in the last 3 games. All at night. All on the road.

That said, Riley's K% is down around 20% and his BB% is up around 10% so far in 2021. Reason for optimism?
Click to expand...

This is the reason for optimism for Riley: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/a...t=2019&end=2021&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=

His contact rate in the zone continues to trend up, and his swing rate at pitches out of the zone continues to trend down. That is exactly the type of improvements he needed to make.

Others are right when they suggest he seems to have become too focused on contact, as evidenced by his career low 84.7 mph EV and his career low 8.3% HR/FB rate. However, if he can somehow manage to combine his improving bat skills with his old 90+ mph average EV, he will be the hitter everyone hoped he would become.

I wouldn't bet against him, and until Harris is promoted, Riley is the most interesting player to watch on this team.
 
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clvclv said:
And that's a cold stretch - quite possibly the longest of the season.

There's simply no way Ozuna, Ozzie, d'Arnaud, and Dansby continue to be this cold/unlucky. Everyone's spoiled because this team didn't have more than two guys go cold at the same time during a once-in-a-lifetime 60 game season. A 20 game hot stretch all of a sudden makes this the best offense in baseball again. This stretch kinda screams Snitker to me - he talks a lot about riding the hot hand, but when you look closely he's just talking. He's going to play "his guys" (as in Markakis, etc.) and let them hit their way out of slumps/bad luck. Neither Ozuna or Dansby has had a day off yet, d'Arnaud has played 17 times, and Ozzie has played in 16 of the 18 games.
Click to expand...

Bold for emphasis. I agree that a lot of Braves fans don't realize just how "lucky" pretty much the entire lineup was for the entire 2020 season. The Braves offense pretty much had an unsustainable hot stretch that just so happened to fall right on the 60 games the season covered. Replicating that was never going to happen in 2021 over 162 games.
 
Enscheff said:
This is the reason for optimism for Riley: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/a...art=2019&end=2021&rtype=mult>1=15&dStatArray=

His contact rate in the zone continues to trend up, and his swing rate at pitches out of the zone continues to trend down. That is exactly the type of improvements he needed to make.

Others are right when they suggest he seems to have become too focused on contact, as evidenced by his career low 84.7 mph EV and his career low 8.3% HR/FB rate. However, if he can somehow manage to combine his improving bat skills with his old 90+ mph average EV, he will be the hitter everyone hoped he would become.

I wouldn't bet against him, and until Harris is promoted, Riley is the most interesting player to watch on this team.
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Agreed on all accounts. I mean, after 2019, Riley essentially had to adjust for better recognition and to increase his contact rates because pitchers figured him out quickly. If he continues to draw walks at this rate (or close to it), pitchers will have to really challenge him in the zone more and he can choose to sit on a fastball or a breaking ball in the zone and the raw power should come from there.
 
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