5/13: GDT at Marlins

wowbobwow said:
from what I see it changes game to game, like it does for almost everyone. His breaking stuff, at times, is truly elite. My view on Folty is that his stuff is elite when he's throwing his fastball 94-96, but it's actually pretty average (at times, worse than average) when he's 98-100
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There was at least one start where his offspeed stuff looked better than his fastball. He was dropping them into the zone in spots and that’s the sort of zone you hope he hits for a season or two. Or a postseason, though that would be scary to deal with.
 
Newk is due regression?...well yeah...he hasn’t given up a dang run in how many games??

This is his first full year....let’s repeat that....this is his first full year. Folty has been given much more time and is older. I’m impressed by Newk and not going to nit pick him. At the end of the year we will see. I think he will land around a high 2/low 3 guy. For his first full year...that is great.

With his size for a lefty and great stuff...he just doesn’t have to be perfect. He just has to not walk a ton of people and he’s going to be a good to great pitcher. His biggest problem to me is going deeper into games.

If he “does” happen to keep this up by the end of the year...he is what he is. A TOR starter. Go look back at some of these present day TOR starters and look at their stats from their first full year in the bigs. Nine out of ten of these guys just don’t come in and dominate.
 
It's not just his 1st year, he's got a track record in the minors that tells us the walk rate is unlikely to improve.
 
Enscheff said:
That profile resulted in a 3 win pitcher over 200 IP. Newk is pacing for ~180.

A 2.5-3 win pitcher is great, but that’s not what folks pimping Newk have in mind.
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it's also his 2nd season, 1st full.
so yeah, i don't think he's necessarily a finished product. crazy.
 
Super said:
it's also his 2nd season, 1st full.
so yeah, i don't think he's necessarily a finished product. crazy.
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Funny when people act like a 24 year old is a finished product, with no way of improving. I don’t know if it’s for real or not, but there is just as good of a chance (and that is improving each game he keeps this up), that he has improved...as there is that he hasn’t.

I would rather sit back and enjoy this with a wait and see attitude, than spending my time crunching numbers to prove otherwise.

Newk can go six innings and give up no runs, and if you didn’t know and just listened to some of the guys on this board....you would think he was giving up five runs a game.

At this point, I give Newk and better chance than Folty, and I would NOT have said that last year. With what we gave up to get him...let’s ALL hope this is him. It would sure take some of that sick feeling away.
 
TheBravos said:
Funny when people act like a 24 year old is a finished product, with no way of improving. I don’t know if it’s for real or not, but there is just as good of a chance (and that is improving each game he keeps this up), that he has improved...as there is that he hasn’t.

I would rather sit back and enjoy this with a wait and see attitude, than spending my time crunching numbers to prove otherwise.

Newk can go six innings and give up no runs, and if you didn’t know and just listened to some of the guys on this board....you would think he was giving up five runs a game.

At this point, I give Newk and better chance than Folty, and I would NOT have said that last year. With what we gave up to get him...let’s ALL hope this is him. It would sure take some of that sick feeling away.
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he's already improved from last season.
better BB/9, better K/9, higher GB%, better HR/9. teams legitimately cannot square him up. never been able to, either.
 
Super said:
he's already improved from last season.
better BB/9, better K/9, higher GB%, better HR/9. teams legitimately cannot square him up. never been able to, either.
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That’s just the deal. Even when he doesn’t have great stuff...they still can’t hit him. Most guys get LIT UP when that happens. He keeps throwing strikes ...he’s a TOR.
 
I don’t think anyone is saying he CAN’t Improve. But the data tells us he is likely not to improve. He will have seasons with a better BB/9 rate and we will all be dancing. Then he will follow it up with another 5 per year and we will all be like what the hell man. He is most likely a guy that will always be a what if. Now he can bust the mold and kill it. Great for us. But just because someone recites data doesn’t mean they hate Newk.

Improve his BB/9 rate. That is what I was saying improve. I think he will improve in other areas as he gains experience.
 
striker42 said:
Sean Newcomb is Gio Gonzalez. High K rate, low HR rate, with his BB rate determining how good he is in a given year. Gio is a 3 WAR a year guy with the occasional peak year where he's better.

No one should be upset for Newk to be Gio Gonzalez.
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i would be very happy if he could throw 175+ innings of solid ball consistently. only one season in gio's career where he didn't do it.
newcomb does K more guys than gio does/did tho.
 
Newk also throws a little harder than gio. Not sure how the pitches grade out but newks stuff is top notch.

I'm seeing gio as a floor now
 
I enjoy watching him pitch.

He just seems to lose pitches. The mechanics are repeated and he just gets out of synch....maybe it's the height.

To me it's all about the non-competitive pitches. I think he can be effectively wild if he's around the zone. He still throws too many that are 12+ inches wide of the plate. If he can make batters think about all of his pitches then he'll get the couple of extra bad swings and misses he needs to turn a walk into a K.

I thought he had a couple questionable walks. I didn't think the Marlins seemed overly aggressive. I'm sure there is a swing rate number that can used to objectively determine aggressiveness.

I like where he is. I still think we have a team of 3/4 starters. If he is going to be a stud he's got to get the walks down and the innings up. I love the gb% and the K%.
 
Russ2dollas said:
I enjoy watching him pitch.

He just seems to lose pitches. The mechanics are repeated and he just gets out of synch....maybe it's the height.

To me it's all about the non-competitive pitches. I think he can be effectively wild if he's around the zone. He still throws too many that are 12+ inches wide of the plate. If he can make batters think about all of his pitches then he'll get the couple of extra bad swings and misses he needs to turn a walk into a K.

I thought he had a couple questionable walks. I didn't think the Marlins seemed overly aggressive. I'm sure there is a swing rate number that can used to objectively determine aggressiveness.

I like where he is. I still think we have a team of 3/4 starters. If he is going to be a stud he's got to get the walks down and the innings up. I love the gb% and the K%.
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At this time its not that hard to imagine a scenario where Newk becomes a TOR type starter. Even with some control hiccups he is consistently going 6 innings. He was a 3 sport star in a north eastern school. THe age may indicate otherwise but he is not that far along on his developmental curve. We will see improvements the next 2 seasons and even small improvements from where he is right now bodes real well for his future.
 
I have consistently comp'd Newk to Oliver Perez.

What do you think Pirates fans were saying about him during and after his 2004 season?
 
Russ2dollas said:
I enjoy watching him pitch.

He just seems to lose pitches. The mechanics are repeated and he just gets out of synch....maybe it's the height.

To me it's all about the non-competitive pitches. I think he can be effectively wild if he's around the zone. He still throws too many that are 12+ inches wide of the plate. If he can make batters think about all of his pitches then he'll get the couple of extra bad swings and misses he needs to turn a walk into a K.

I thought he had a couple questionable walks. I didn't think the Marlins seemed overly aggressive. I'm sure there is a swing rate number that can used to objectively determine aggressiveness.

I like where he is. I still think we have a team of 3/4 starters. If he is going to be a stud he's got to get the walks down and the innings up. I love the gb% and the K%.
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This. Reducing the non-competitive might take his starts to 7 innings instead of 6.
 
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