6/1/15: GDT - Atlanta Braves @ Arizona Diamondbacks

chop2chip said:
I feel like the first 51 games of the year has been a constant victory lap for thethe. I can't imagine a soul on earth who would delight in the presence of average more than this good sir.
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Averaging at this point is light years ahead of what was discussed in the offseason. We were basically beaten over the head with the fact that we acquired awful players and wouldn't be a good team for ages. Oh yeah, and we were beyond stupid to suggest this team would be more fun to watch than last year's team. Good times.
 
thethe said:
Averaging at this point is light years ahead of what was discussed in the offseason. We were basically beaten over the head with the fact that we acquired awful players and wouldn't be a good team for ages. Oh yeah, and we were beyond stupid to suggest this team would be more fun to watch than last year's team. Good times.
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AND our minors are looking really good, as is our young pitching, both of which are huge.
 
and hey, just like someone said, a good game or two here or there after a lousy stretch and our offensive numbers are clearly better than last year's team again.
 
Heywood said:
I was very critical of the front office, but I never said we'd be a 90-95 loss team.

Until we fix our bullpen, we're going to have to rely on our starters to give us 7-8 innings every game just to keep us in the game. We look good now because Freddie is hitting homers again (who would've thought hitting for power was useful), but if he goes through another coldspell again... yeah.
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I predicted 71-91 and I'm still there. I'm happy to see the team doing well and while I didn't agree with every move made during the off-season, I was happy to see a blueprint unveiled as opposed to continuing with Wren's hand-to-mouth mentality. It was decided a rebuild shouldn't wait and that the return would be greater if guys were moved now as opposed to later. Can't prove the negative, so no use going down that road.

I like a lot of the guys we did acquire. I didn't think Jace Peterson would play this well, but we're still dealing with a relatively small sample. But, it's obvious the guy can play some. There's been a lot of talk about Maybin and maybe things have come together for him. I usually underplay the importance of coaches, but maybe I'm wrong because Seitzer looks like he knows a few things that are really helping guys.

Starting pitching has been pretty good as well and Grilli and Johnson have been decent too.

All this said, I still think this team could go 0-for-September. Hope I'm wrong. Curious to see what happens at the trade deadline if we are in the hunt for a playoff position.
 
50PoundHead said:
I predicted 71-91 and I'm still there. I'm happy to see the team doing well and while I didn't agree with every move made during the off-season, I was happy to see a blueprint unveiled as opposed to continuing with Wren's hand-to-mouth mentality. It was decided a rebuild shouldn't wait and that the return would be greater if guys were moved now as opposed to later. Can't prove the negative, so no use going down that road.

I like a lot of the guys we did acquire. I didn't think Jace Peterson would play this well, but we're still dealing with a relatively small sample. But, it's obvious the guy can play some. There's been a lot of talk about Maybin and maybe things have come together for him. I usually underplay the importance of coaches, but maybe I'm wrong because Seitzer looks like he knows a few things that are really helping guys.

Starting pitching has been pretty good as well and Grilli and Johnson have been decent too.

All this said, I still think this team could go 0-for-September. Hope I'm wrong. Curious to see what happens at the trade deadline if we are in the hunt for a playoff position.
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Man, you still have us at only 71 wins?
I still think our pitching is going to improve, overall.
 
thewupk said:
with zero power and really bad defense? And that's in year one.
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I acknowledged that he will probably regress over the course of the contract. All I was saying was that if he were to give us this type of production over the length of the contract then we should all be very happy
 
Markakis has had the kind of year so far that provides ammunition to both his detractors and supporters. So far his ISO is 88 points below his career average, but his BABIP is 34 points above his career average. Both are likely to normalize with a bigger sample this season. But it is a somewhat troubling combination because the BABIP is more likely to normalize.

That's not the end of the story. His walk rate is up 3% from the career average and the strikeout rate is up 1% from his career average and 2-3% from recent seasons. The tradeoff is acceptable if it continues. But I wonder a bit why the strikeout rate is up if he has adjusted his hitting style to get more contact and OBP.

As for his defense it is ok. The only issue really is we got spoilt by the guy who preceded him. There was some debate in recent years about whether the defensive data overstated Jason's value. I think having the opportunity to see a competent but not world class guy like Markakis in right answers that question.
 
50PoundHead said:
I predicted 71-91 and I'm still there. I'm happy to see the team doing well and while I didn't agree with every move made during the off-season, I was happy to see a blueprint unveiled as opposed to continuing with Wren's hand-to-mouth mentality. It was decided a rebuild shouldn't wait and that the return would be greater if guys were moved now as opposed to later. Can't prove the negative, so no use going down that road.

I like a lot of the guys we did acquire. I didn't think Jace Peterson would play this well, but we're still dealing with a relatively small sample. But, it's obvious the guy can play some. There's been a lot of talk about Maybin and maybe things have come together for him. I usually underplay the importance of coaches, but maybe I'm wrong because Seitzer looks like he knows a few things that are really helping guys.

Starting pitching has been pretty good as well and Grilli and Johnson have been decent too.

All this said, I still think this team could go 0-for-September. Hope I'm wrong. Curious to see what happens at the trade deadline if we are in the hunt for a playoff position.
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Agreed across the board. I'm still bearish on the team being in WC contention, but I'm pleasantly surprised at the performance so far.

I think it's probably reasonable to credit Seitzer with Not Not's whole-field approach, and it's been frequently remarked that Maybin is a happy disciple of his. That may end up being one of the most valuable moves we made last year.

We have a chance for a .500 (or better) West Coast road trip against some damned good teams. I'll be happy to put the arguments on hold and enjoy it.
 
thethe said:
I acknowledged that he will probably regress over the course of the contract. All I was saying was that if he were to give us this type of production over the length of the contract then we should all be very happy
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He is essentialy a 2 WAR player right now. I don't think I would be all that happy with just that even though it's slightly better than where I thought he would be. But what he would give us in 2015 has never been my issue with Mark. It's that it's a 4 year deal where there is a real chance of him being useless the last year or two.
 
thewupk said:
He is essentialy a 2 WAR player right now. I don't think I would be all that happy with just that even though it's slightly better than where I thought he would be. But what he would give us in 2015 has never been my issue with Mark. It's that it's a 4 year deal where there is a real chance of him being useless the last year or two.
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When we signed him I thought he would average 1.0-1.5 WAR per season over the life of the contract, which was why I thought it wasn't a good signing. As you noted he is on track for 2 WAR this season, which is consistent with what I was expecting given normal aging patterns.
 
thethe said:
It may not end up being a punt year aftetall...
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See...I am right there with this. The Nats injuries and annual DL stints are starting to kick in and I think we can compete with the Mets...this division or wild card is far from a reach for this team. Hopefully we can be contenders at the deadline.
 
Fredi will bring this team to the wild card and people will complain we didn't take the division. Crazy we're only a few games behind the Nats. if we had a competent bullpen that waz even league average we'd be fighting for first in the east.
 
Heywood said:
Fredi will bring this team to the wild card and people will complain we didn't take the division. Crazy we're only a few games behind the Nats. if we had a competent bullpen that waz even league average we'd be fighting for first in the east.
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If we can make it to July in good shape reinforcements for the pen will get here.
 
I still don't trust this offense enough. We're still a negative in differential, which is really never good.

However, if Uribe can hit like he did last year, it will go a long way to solidifying the lineup. Jace seems to be improving steadily. Pitching has been improving steadily as well. I guess we will wait and see what the upcoming month brings.
 
50PoundHead said:
I predicted 71-91 and I'm still there. I'm happy to see the team doing well and while I didn't agree with every move made during the off-season, I was happy to see a blueprint unveiled as opposed to continuing with Wren's hand-to-mouth mentality. It was decided a rebuild shouldn't wait and that the return would be greater if guys were moved now as opposed to later. Can't prove the negative, so no use going down that road.
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I'm not sure what Hart's blueprint was. I remember ahead of the Heyward trade he gave an interview. He in effect said the off-season could go one of two ways. He said the team's chances of contending depended upon its ability to acquire a young cost-controlled starter. He said that was the key. If they could do that they could compete with most of the team as it existed. If not a more radical rebuild would have to ensue.

So he goes out and in fact acquires that young cost-controlled starter in the Heyward trade. But he seemed to change his mind after that about competing in 2015. I think that was a mistake given we had guys like Freeman and Simmons in their prime and under control going forward (providing a good foundation to continue to field a competitive team). The fact the team is competitive this year even with a sub-par supporting cast suggests to me that Hart misjudged our chances for success this year, and I would argue our chances for competing going forward without the radical overhaul he implemented.
 
nsacpi said:
I'm not sure what Hart's blueprint was. I remember ahead of the Heyward trade he gave an interview. He in effect said the off-season could go one of two ways. He said the team's chances of contending depended upon its ability to acquire a young cost-controlled starter. He said that was the key. If they could do that they could compete with most of the team as it existed. If not a more radical rebuild would have to ensue.

So he goes out and in fact acquires that young cost-controlled starter in the Heyward trade. But he seemed to change his mind after that about competing in 2015. I think that was a mistake given we had guys like Freeman and Simmons in their prime and under control going forward (providing a good foundation to continue to field a competitive team). The fact the team is competitive this year even with a sub-par supporting cast suggests to me that Hart misjudged our chances for success this year, and I would argue our chances for competing going forward without the radical overhaul he implemented.
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Hart plan was primarily to ensure that there was a deep pipeline of players ready to help the team in 2017. Once that was accomplished then it was try to be as competitive as possible currently.
 
If we stop dealing after the Heyward trade and try and compete (which I think would have been a huge mistake - the offense would be terrible), we'd have no farm system to speak of, or at least not even close to the really good one we have now. So when this season was over, we'd be depleted when Upton signed elsewhere and there was nothing on the farm.
 
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