6/7 GDT: A's game 1

AJonesATL said:
Curious what advanced hitting metrics say on Lindor. I know he has been really good all things considered, but still hard to believe he's 28, basically hasn't broken above a 750 ops since 2019 and has a $340mm contract. Reminds me just a touch of Heyward, where earlier in his career his offense was better and then with the defense, etc. he was putting up some great WAR seasons but ended up being a bust of a contract. Not saying Lindor will be a bust and he's overall been good this year, but when you give him that type of deal, you need more.
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Your intuition is right. He’s a really good player who needs to be at 4 WAR to break even which he did last year and will do it again this year. However, with these mega contracts teams pay a heavy price with expectation that the contract will be bad at the backend but that they will get enough surplus value on the front end to justify it.

It’s funny to think that the player most comparable to him right now might be Dansby.
 
AJonesATL said:
Curious what advanced hitting metrics say on Lindor. I know he has been really good all things considered, but still hard to believe he's 28, basically hasn't broken above a 750 ops since 2019 and has a $340mm contract. Reminds me just a touch of Heyward, where earlier in his career his offense was better and then with the defense, etc. he was putting up some great WAR seasons but ended up being a bust of a contract. Not saying Lindor will be a bust and he's overall been good this year, but when you give him that type of deal, you need more.
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Not great offensively: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/francisco-lindor-596019?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb
 
chop2chip said:
It’s funny to think that the player most comparable to him right now might be Dansby.
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Ooof. You're not wrong, but that comparison makes the contract look pretty bad. No way Bae sniffs $300m in FA.
 
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