7/21 MINORS THURSDAY FINAL: Walkoff slam in Danville!
- Thread starter rico43
- Start date
Someone at the time he got sent down the first time posted a quote from him saying he had gotten something screwed up with his mechanics and just needed to get it fixed. I'd imagine going back and forth to Atlanta again right after that and dealing with different coaching staffs (and a new staff that hadn't worked with him before at AAA) just made that worse. The fact he suddenly started walking folks all over the place and his calling card is being a control pitcher is kinda a telling sign. I know someone else said they watched him in person (Tyree I think) and he was nibbling a lot as well. SO sounds like a combo of mechanical issues and some confidence issues. I'm sure he'll get it together again sometime. My only concern is the AAA coaching staff seems to be a little iffy at the moment.
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
My counter to the basic argument is that there are a lot of ways to build an offense. Freeman has to be more consistent, but if we can get one more middle-of-the-order guy to pair with him, guys like Dustin Peterson could fit quite easily. Everyone seems to think that LF is the only place where a bopper can play ergo, that can't be Peterson. I would like to see Peterson play some RF (he has played some CF) and 3B (his original position) so he could become a 300 AB multi-position guy at the big league level and give him more development time. That's at least a year (more likely two) away, so let's let him develop.
Peterson doesn't scream "athleticism," so he's probably not going to ever be in the top tier of minor league prospects. And that's okay as long as one keeps their head and lets things play out.
The issue there is if he's playing LF (and isn't making a big jump to be a low to mid .800 OPS guy), we have to find a 20-25 HR guy to play at 3B, and those are exceptionally hard to find. Now if you are talking about him replacing one of Mallex or Ender, then sure he works fine regardless. But if we are putting him in LF with those two we will need a huge bat at 3B or we will likely have one of the bottom 25% offenses in baseball even with Albies and Swanson. And even the Mets are struggling to be a playoff team with a top 3 pitching staff and bottom 5 offense. Given that we are unlikely to be close to the Mets pitching until guys like Allard, Fried, and Soroka get up to the majors in 2019 we will need a big jump in offense to compete. And plugging in Peterson in LF and a decent 3B isn't going to make that happen I don't think.
The talk about Dustin not fitting is revolving around him not fitting into our current lineup because we only have two spots to fit a bat, LF and 3B (C as well, but there are no prime years Buster Poseys or McCanns for us to sign or trade for to plug in there). Now if it's him and Ender or Mallex or a him in a platoon with Mallex he'd work very well I think.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
It will take some time for this to play out. My guess is Dustin will play in AAA next year and part of 2018. When he comes up it will most likely be as a bench or platoon player. I think he has a chance to be more than that. But he isn't the kind of prospect that you pencil in as a starter. You do that with guys like Albies and Swanson. Not Peterson and Ruiz.
I mean, I do think it makes you a little low on him. Diaz was strictly a platoon guy and put up a .744 OPS in AA at age 24. Diaz may end up being a good comp for him, but I think he clearly has a higher ceiling than that.
I'm not quite sure why people keep limiting him to a platoon guy. Yes, he has hit very well against lefties this year, but he has also put up a .276/.327/.414 line against righties. He actually hit better against righties than lefties in 2015.
I like how you bring up the worst year Diaz had in the minors there smootness, ignoring that he posted OPS around .900 in A+ ball, AA the next year, and in AAA. Diaz showed a bunch of pop all throughout the minors, which Peterson has not. The main comparison for me was Diaz was a guy who in his peak with us could post a mid .750ish OPS against righties and rake lefties. I think that is Peterson's likely upside, and would put him in the high .700s OPS overall and make him around a 2 WAR player.
Now is there a chance he manages to start posting .800 OPS against righties at some point and becomes much better than that, sure. But he's going to have to hit for much more power against righties than he's shown so far to get there.
I wasn't attempting to point out his worst year in the minors, I was just discussing his first year in AA, as that is where Peterson is. It's the best comparison. And again, Diaz was 24 that year, 23 the year before in A+, etc. He was 3 years older than Peterson at the same stage. That is very important. And it wasn't Diaz's worst year. That was two years prior, when he put up a .691 OPS...in his first year in A+. He clearly benefited greatly from a second year at each level, which Peterson hasn't had the luxury of.
Peterson is on pace for around 12 HR this year. Diaz did have 17 in his second year in A+ but then he had 10 his first run through AA, 13 the following year, and then got to 21 at age 26 in AAA. That was also the first time he had an ISO of .200 or better.
Peterson's ISO this year is about .150. Diaz's was .115 his first year in A+, jumped to .180 his second year in A+, dropped back down to .134 his first year in AA, then was .175 the next year. Peterson is not getting the second year at the level as Diaz did. I just don't see this 'bunch of pop' Diaz showed.
We are being very aggressive with Peterson for a reason. Again, I see Diaz as more of a floor for Peterson than a realistic projection, and it certainly isn't his ceiling.
Peterson is developing pretty rapidly. His BA and OBP have increased each of the last 3 years, even while he was moving up levels. His SLG has also increased overall, though it did dip slightly last year before this year's significant improvement. His ISO also dipped last year but has increased overall. His K rate has improved at each level, and his BB rate improved a lot last year before taking a slight step back so far this year.
So he is improving his ability to hit, get on base, while hitting with more power and striking out less...all while moving up a level every year.
yeezus
It's OVER 5,000!
And being young for his level (right?).
Diaz had multiple years where he posted mid .800s OPS over his first 4 years in the majors, and was basically a 2-2.5 WAR guy when healthy his first 4 years with us. I think the main person being discounted here is Matt Diaz, he was a pretty solid piece when he was with us.. I don't think by any stretch that Peterson's floor is a 2 WAR guy in the majors, I think that's a positive outcome for him.
Technically very young for his level, in reality about in the middle of the typical range for good prospects at the level.
Good prospects tend to be 18-19 at A ball, 19-20 in A+, 20-22 in AA, or at least that's certainly the way it seems.
It may not be his literal floor, but I do believe he's pretty likely to end up being better than Diaz. I know Diaz was valuable for us; he had a clear role and was very good in that role. He was also 28 before he got his first real taste of consistent time in the majors. I think Peterson has a very good chance to be better than Diaz was when he's 28.
Pretty much nailed this. He's young for the level technically, but right on target as far as being successful as a prospect goes.
The one thing he has shown that is a big plus is the consistent improvement, if that continues he has a shot. I think he has a good chance to hit righties much better than Diaz, but on the flip side the chances of him raking lefties the way Diaz did are small. He has a chance to be better for sure, but based on the numbers he's posting so far it's not really likely. Now if he starts getting more lift and becomes more of a HR hitter than a line drive hitter then that kicks him up a notch of course. Be interesting to watch him in AAA next year.
Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
Newcombe and Ruiz have to be close.
Ruiz b/c we want a 3b upgrade so bad. Newcombe b/c we gave up Simba and he walks ppl.
I think that trade ceased to be polarizing at the point we traded for Swanson. I don't think people care about the Simba side of the equation quite so much anymore, particularly since he hasn't set the world on fire on the Angels.
Southcack77
Well-known member
There is the one guy that has him as a aaaa player before he's gotten out of aa.
Slightly above average lf is easily a possibility and would be helpful.
I'm not too worried about specific of spots as I don't think any of current starters plus mallex are written in pen.