8/26... Rockies game 2

Enscheff said:
That's the thing...they haven't done it with anyone. They have literally taken the least optimal path in almost every major decision they have made.

It should be concerning to everyone, even folks that aren't intelli-Braves.
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We don't disagree they could have done many things better, We just realize the team isn't going to be run the way we want and moved on. You just harp on it over and over.
 
sturg33 said:
Albies BAPIP is on .303... so doesn't seem to flukey

114 wRC+
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his results are starting to normalize



Major league strikeout rate at 15.6%. This matches his results in AA and AAA last year, but a bit less than his 20.1% rate in AAA this year. For 2018, I would expect him to come in around 16%.

Walk rate is 7.8%, a bit above his AAA rate of 6.3% but in line with what he did last year. I think he will be around 7% in 2018.

BABIP is .303, still a bit on the low side of what he did in the minors. I would project a .320 BABIP for 2018.

ISO is .235. This is the one number that is significantly at odds with his minor league data. I would project it to normalize to something around .160 next year.
 
nsacpi said:
his results are starting to normalize

Major league strikeout rate at 15.6%. This matches his results in AA and AAA last year, but a bit less than his 20.1% rate in AAA this year. For 2018, I would expect him to come in around 16%.

Walk rate is 7.8%, a bit above his AAA rate of 6.3% but in line with what he did last year. I think he will be around 7% in 2018.

BABIP is .303, still a bit on the low side of what he did in the minors. I would project a .320 BABIP for 2018.

ISO is .235. This is the one number that is significantly at odds with his minor league data. I would project it to normalize to something around .160 next year.
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There are currently 426 MLB players with 75 or more ABs in 2017. Albies ranks #55 xwOBA-xOBA with a -0.045 mark.

This means that based on his batted ball profile, he would be expected to have a .312 wOBA. He actually has a .357 wOBA.

Albies is currently getting lucky based on his batted ball profile.

However, I don't expect his batted ball profile to remain as it is. I expect his LD% to increase and his FB% to decrease (it is already down to 44.8% from over 50%). This will allow him to sustain production around his current level as his luck starts to change.

For reference, here are the Braves who have been lucky/unlucky:

1 Ender Inciarte 0.274 - 0.329 -0.055
2 Ozzie Albies 0.312 - 0.357 -0.045
3 Johan Camargo 0.295 - 0.336 -0.041
4 Kurt Suzuki 0.336 - 0.375 -0.039
5 Freddie Freeman 0.406 - 0.438 -0.032
6 Matt Adams 0.342 - 0.362 -0.020
7 Brandon Phillips 0.311 - 0.330 -0.019
8 Danny Santana 0.247 - 0.260 -0.013
9 Tyler Flowers 0.352 - 0.365 -0.013
10 Nick Markakis 0.330 - 0.338 -0.008
11 Matt Kemp 0.363 - 0.355 0.008
12 Dansby Swanson 0.299 - 0.289 0.010
13 Adonis Garcia 0.305 - 0.280 0.025
14 Jace Peterson 0.305 - 0.263 0.042
15 Rio Ruiz 0.307 - 0.251 0.056
 
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