8/31 - Braves @ Red Sox, #MyAce Edition
- Thread starter UNCBlue012
- Start date
CrimsonCowboy
Moderator
Agreed, as long as they don't hurt his development by throwing him in the deep end before he is ready. Don't want to damage his confidence.
Southcack77
Well-known member
The Braves don't think he can hit MLB pitching yet.
(He'll probably never hit much honestly)
goldfly
<B>if my thought dreams could be seen</B>
Southcack77
Well-known member
No, it looked like giving a below average hitter whose value is almost entirely defense based an unnecessary guarantee for a season that was clearly in his decline.
I can't imagine what they projected he'd make on the open market at that age with that diminishing skill set, but they missed.
It was a bad move when it was make. Not an egregious one as these things go, but it will be costly nonetheless.
jpx7
Very Flirtatious, but Doubts What Love Is.
lol I know. It's a running joke that Chip mentions the remote nature of both broadcasting and (especially) score-keeping multiple times every broadcast.
jpx7
Very Flirtatious, but Doubts What Love Is.
It's hard to know. Normally he'd have a lot under his belt in the minors this year, and he's very young. The only thing I've read about him is that he's very pull happy and it could be an issue. He is still developing as a hitter. Of course his defensive value could make him worth it. There is really no way to evaluate prospect progress this year.
OcalaBrave
Spring Training Invitee
77 AB in August produced a .875 OPS. I've got him at a 31% K rate in August. Not great, but only slightly above Dansby and Ozuna (28%).
En might need to correct my understanding of the statcast charts, but his swing take profile shows positive approach in the heart, waste and chase boxes. It's the shadow of the plate where he needs to improve. Within the shadow he goes after inside and low more often than league average. I wonder what happens if he simply got a little closer to the plate so the inside pitch wasn't as inviting to turn on.
I also think I understand the statcast model to ding Riley for his lack of walks. Kid is 23 and until recently looked like one of the easier outs in the lineup. Wouldn't we expect pitchers to be more careful/stop challenging him once he proves himself dangerous? When that happens, wouldn't we expect the walks to go up? The most exciting thing about Riley is he is coming through when it counts. .849 OPS with Runners on; 1.026 with runners in scoring position and 1.313 with 2 out and runners in scoring position so far this season. As a result, on the season, Riley has 1 less RBI than Freddie.
He has work left to do without a doubt, but I see a bunch of reasons to believe Riley is worth allowing to round into form. Braves did it with Swanson and that seems to have worked out OK.
Southcack77
Well-known member
Riley has made really significant progress across the board, which kind of explains why he's an average hitter vs a well below average hitter in 2019.
I think he actually has put himself in the realm of having swing profile comps. Kole Calhoun, 2019 Puig, Franmil Reyes. Seems like his next task is cut down on the balls he swings at in the zone.
I think he actually has put himself in the realm of having swing profile comps. Kole Calhoun, 2019 Puig, Franmil Reyes. Seems like his next task is cut down on the balls he swings at in the zone.
Again, you are quoting stats that have zero predictive value. How a guy hits with runners on or in scoring position has zero relevance compared to their overall line. While it makes for exciting outcomes, analysis has shown over and over there is no predictive value to it.
Again...again, I have stated Riley has made progress...several times...in exactly the areas I said he needed to make progress. Anyone can check his 15 day rolling Z-Contact% and O-Swing% charts to see real improvements in 2020. I've posted this info several times now. He has improved from worst in MLB in both categories to well below average. Those improvements have allowed him to become something approximating an MLB average hitter. Only time will tell if he can continue to improve, but right now folks are quoting stats like OPS over a handful of PAs that are meaningless noise in a stat like OPS that takes much longer to stabilize.
Of course he looks great the last 14 days...he's rocking an insane .440 BABIP. How many times are unsustainable numbers like that going to continue fooling people around here? Just like he wasn't going to maintain the .200 BABIP that was plaguing him early, he won't sustain this crazy .440 value now.
So again....again, Riley is currently the worst player of the real starting position players, and he is probably above replacement level. When that's the case, the team is good. The Braves have massive gaping holes in the rotation, so it didn't make sense to spend resources to fix a position manned by a replacement level player when the existing SPs are below replacement level.
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Ding ding ding.
Once again, folks are being fooled by an unsustainable BABIP during a "hot streak". In this case it's Riley's .440 value the last 14 days.
This may be jumping the gun, but I think he will be a MUCH better player than Arenado after watching the last 14 days. Amiright??
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
Funny that Riley BABiP is so high the past 14 days. It seems like he has had some of the worst luck with guys catching his rockets/homers more than anyone.
msstate7
Well-known member
Last night for sure... he easily could've had 4 hits
So you'd say overall he is about where he should be?