8/31 - Braves @ Red Sox, #MyAce Edition

When Albies gets back, and assuming he's healthy, Riley basically becomes the worst hitter in the starting lineup, give or take a Duvall against righties and assuming Inciarte is more or less stapled to the bench in big games. You can win games if a guy like Riley is your worst hitter -- if nothing else he always has the ability to run into a ball and hit it a long way, so he's never going to be completely hopeless. You just don't want to stack Riley, Camargo and Inciarte on top of each other at the bottom of the lineup -- that's when you have totally hopeless innings.
 
Riley xBA .264 v .228
Riley xwOBA .348 v. .310

Exit velocity is slightly up to 90.9 v. 89.4

Launch Angle is 9.5 v. 20.6.

GBs way up, fly balls/line drives down.

Swinging much less inside and outside the zone. Making more contact inside and outside the zone.

Looking more like a fringe major league power hitter than his own special case of bad.
 
msstate7 said:
Babip is still just .286, so he was due some good luck.
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Yup, and I mentioned back when he was really scuffling that his .204 BABIP was hugely unlucky and unlikely to continue.

Lo and behold...his luck turned and his BABIP has regressed to something normal.
 
Southcack77 said:
Riley xBA .264 v .228
Riley xwOBA .348 v. .310

Exit velocity is slightly up to 90.9 v. 89.4

Launch Angle is 9.5 v. 20.6.

GBs way up, fly balls/line drives down.

Swinging much less inside and outside the zone. Making more contact inside and outside the zone.

Looking more like a fringe major league power hitter than his own special case of bad.
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Or...

A RHH Jake Lamb
 
Enscheff said:
Again, you are quoting stats that have zero predictive value. How a guy hits with runners on or in scoring position has zero relevance compared to their overall line. While it makes for exciting outcomes, analysis has shown over and over there is no predictive value to it.

Again...again, I have stated Riley has made progress...several times...in exactly the areas I said he needed to make progress. Anyone can check his 15 day rolling Z-Contact% and O-Swing% charts to see real improvements in 2020. I've posted this info several times now. He has improved from worst in MLB in both categories to well below average. Those improvements have allowed him to become something approximating an MLB average hitter. Only time will tell if he can continue to improve, but right now folks are quoting stats like OPS over a handful of PAs that are meaningless noise in a stat like OPS that takes much longer to stabilize.

Of course he looks great the last 14 days...he's rocking an insane .440 BABIP. How many times are unsustainable numbers like that going to continue fooling people around here? Just like he wasn't going to maintain the .200 BABIP that was plaguing him early, he won't sustain this crazy .440 value now.

So again....again, Riley is currently the worst player of the real starting position players, and he is probably above replacement level. When that's the case, the team is good. The Braves have massive gaping holes in the rotation, so it didn't make sense to spend resources to fix a position manned by a replacement level player when the existing SPs are below replacement level.
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Uhhh... that post wasn't intended as a swipe at you. In response...

1. Historical trends are generally considered predictive. You jumped me last time for providing stats as evidence of an apparent repeatable pattern of Riley's initial struggles at a level followed by sustained success. Based upon that pattern, I suggested we could predict that Riley might just need ABs to adjust and feel comfortable in Atlanta. May prove true or not.
2. Quoting OPS is not intended to suggest Riley's next month will be like August. OPS is evidence of production at the plate for the last month. Maybe I'm the only one that finds his OPS in August encouraging. Maybe everyone on here except me expected Riley to have 1 more homer and 1 less RBI than Freddie at this point in the season and don't see that kind of production from Riley as surprising. Maybe it is all luck. None of it changes the fact that over the last month Austin Riley has been a very important part of the everyday lineup in Atlanta.
3. I didn't bring up his last 14 days. Instead, I brought up his work all season with runners on. I'll grant you sample size on the hitting with runners on, but there have always been some players that come through in the clutch and some that don't. I'd rather see a young player doing damage with runners on than freezing up. Riley was better at the plate with runners on last year as well. Again, looking for trends as being indicators, Riley doesn't appear to freeze up when he's got a chance to put points on the board.
4. Your "predictive stats" say he has improved some where improvement was absolutely necessary. Maybe that is why he's been successful. If Riley walks more, won't his statcast xBA (I'm guessing a predictive stat") be higher? Maybe stated differently, don't the predictive stats take into account historic trends by changing as Riley improves?
5. You say based upon your "predictive stats" Riley as he currently exists is probably above replacement level. How many starting 3B in MLB are above replacement level? His average exit velocity is 8th among 3b; he's 9th among 3b in hard hit %; and 5th among 3B in Brls/PA%; and 4th in Brls/BBE%. Even with his swing and miss, he's 19th in % swing hard hit. And he's 23.

We seem to be in agreement 3B isn't a problem that needs to be at the top of the solution list. In two years he could be at the top of the list... or the bottom. That's why baseball is fun.
 
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striker42 said:
He really is on that Jake Lamb trajectory. Another year or two of progression and he could be a 2.5-3.0 WAR player for a couple years. That's a useful piece if not a star.
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The interesting thing to note when you think of the Jake Lamb trajectory. As a lefty hitter, Lamb was pretty much unplayable against lefties. So maybe you get the opposite for Riley, a righty hitter who mashes lefties. The only problem is this year he has scarcely ever faced a lefty. Riley has only 23 PA against them, which is about 1/5 of his total PA. Part of the issue is I think we've only faced about 3 left handed starting pitchers all season.
 
striker42 said:
He really is on that Jake Lamb trajectory. Another year or two of progression and he could be a 2.5-3.0 WAR player for a couple years. That's a useful piece if not a star.
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A cost controlled 2.5-3 WAR Riley would be great IMO. That would be a very good piece to have as guys like Ronnie get more expensive.

Jake Lamb is interesting. If he's Jake Lamb I hope it is pre 2018 Lamb. Guy fell off a cliff after that.
 
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