9/27 GDT: Tuesday's Final Ted countdown begins: 6 ...

TheBravos said:
So...I'm still feeling like we missed a big opportunity to get the absolute most for Julio at the deadline. When he's on...he is great. When he isn't....he has not had his "good" stuff more often lately. When the studs come up, he could drop to our 4 or 5 spot, with not near the value. I think the front office has done a great job, but they dropped the ball on Julio. Maybe they just didn't get a good offer, but I find that hard to believe with some of the other deals out there. I think they ask for the moon and never budged. That's all fine, but there was probably a middle ground (very good) trade that could have been had. I guess we'll never know what was offered...maybe it's better that way.
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His value is no lower now than it was at the deadline.
 
smootness said:
His value is no lower now than it was at the deadline.
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In fact you can argue it's higher because it opens up all the teams that he could be traded to. The deadline is usually reserved for those teams trying to make a run. JT will likely be more valued to smaller markets because he's a good pitcher with an extremely team friendly contract. Teams like Boston for example will try and go for pure talent regardless of the financial cost.
 
thewupk said:
If Julio is #4 or #5 in our rotation in 3 years then we are going to the World Series. Also with his contract he is always going to have insane trade value while he is under it. Currently he's sitting at 40 million in surplus value.
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That assumes he doesn't decline from a ~3.2 era pitcher to a ~4.8 era pitcher. If he's a 4.8 era guy and is the Braves #4 then it means little concerning the other pitchers. And his surplus value is only there as long as his performance makes him attractive.

There are all kinds of pitchers who started out great and fell off pretty fast, mostly due to injury. Guys like Minor, Medlen, Jurrjens, Pete Smith, Steve Avery, Pascual Perez, Len Barker, Marty Clary.

Julio's fastball has fallen off from his early years. If it falls even more, he won't be the pitcher he is now and won't have the surplus value he is now.

There is a risk in trading him but also in keeping him.
 
smootness said:
His value is no lower now than it was at the deadline.
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It probably isn't because he made it through the second half in good health. But, his second half consistency took a hit in comparison to his first half. The offseason usually leads to getting back better value but sometimes the deadline finds desperation.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
That assumes he doesn't decline from a ~3.2 era pitcher to a ~4.8 era pitcher. If he's a 4.8 era guy and is the Braves #4 then it means little concerning the other pitchers. And his surplus value is only there as long as his performance makes him attractive.

There are all kinds of pitchers who started out great and fell off pretty fast, mostly due to injury. Guys like Minor, Medlen, Jurrjens, Pete Smith, Steve Avery, Pascual Perez, Len Barker, Marty Clary.

Julio's fastball has fallen off from his early years. If it falls even more, he won't be the pitcher he is now and won't have the surplus value he is now.

There is a risk in trading him but also in keeping him.
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I mean yeah if you expect a 25 year old to suddenly tank then you are right. The first 3 you listed did so because of injury and the first 2 didn't have the track record of Julio either. Sure injury can hit anybody at anytime but given all probabilities of Julios future I think expecting him to be the pitcher he has been through the rest of his contract is the most likely.
 
I think bringing Johnson back would be a good idea. At the very least he'd be a stabilizing influence in a pen that will likely see some turnover. Again, he's been pretty much golden since coming off the DL.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
That assumes he doesn't decline from a ~3.2 era pitcher to a ~4.8 era pitcher. If he's a 4.8 era guy and is the Braves #4 then it means little concerning the other pitchers. And his surplus value is only there as long as his performance makes him attractive.

There are all kinds of pitchers who started out great and fell off pretty fast, mostly due to injury. Guys like Minor, Medlen, Jurrjens, Pete Smith, Steve Avery, Pascual Perez, Len Barker, Marty Clary.

Julio's fastball has fallen off from his early years. If it falls even more, he won't be the pitcher he is now and won't have the surplus value he is now.

There is a risk in trading him but also in keeping him.
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Which thing is not like the others?
 
Horsehide Harry said:
That assumes he doesn't decline from a ~3.2 era pitcher to a ~4.8 era pitcher. If he's a 4.8 era guy and is the Braves #4 then it means little concerning the other pitchers. And his surplus value is only there as long as his performance makes him attractive.

There are all kinds of pitchers who started out great and fell off pretty fast, mostly due to injury. Guys like Minor, Medlen, Jurrjens, Pete Smith, Steve Avery, Pascual Perez, Len Barker, Marty Clary.

Julio's fastball has fallen off from his early years. If it falls even more, he won't be the pitcher he is now and won't have the surplus value he is now.

There is a risk in trading him but also in keeping him.
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Julio, along with all pitchers, should be traded when they have 1-2 years of control remaining. The only exception being if the pitcher needs to prove he is healthy to build his value back up.

For Julio that means he should be traded after the 2018 season, or during the deadline of the 2019 season.
 
thewupk said:
I mean yeah if you expect a 25 year old to suddenly tank then you are right. The first 3 you listed did so because of injury and the first 2 didn't have the track record of Julio either. Sure injury can hit anybody at anytime but given all probabilities of Julios future I think expecting him to be the pitcher he has been through the rest of his contract is the most likely.
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I would say the odds are decent he will continue to be as good for a while. Over the next three years, maybe 60% he's just as good or better, 20% slight decline (loses a mph on his FB, has nagging injuries), 15% steep decline (injury), 5% out of baseball (career ending injury or circumstance). And that's probably pretty close to what you would see with most pitchers of similar track record.
 
Enscheff said:
Julio, along with all pitchers, should be traded when they have 1-2 years of control remaining. The only exception being if the pitcher needs to prove he is healthy to build his value back up.

For Julio that means he should be traded after the 2018 season, or during the deadline of the 2019 season.
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I wouldn't make that a hard and fast rule. I think you should watch a pitcher for signs he may be approaching a decline and move him in advance of the decline if possible. The one time I can see taking a chance that a pitcher would be OK would be when you are close to winning something and would have to replace the traded pitcher with an unknown from outside, essentially trading one unknown for another.
 
I was kind of rooting for the Braves to lose out now that they have secured 63 wins, but hey, I love how this team has fought down the stretch. Now I am hoping for them to finish out with a winning record since June 14th. They need to go 3-2 to do it. That would also match their record from last season.
 
Enscheff said:
Julio, along with all pitchers, should be traded when they have 1-2 years of control remaining. The only exception being if the pitcher needs to prove he is healthy to build his value back up.

For Julio that means he should be traded after the 2018 season, or during the deadline of the 2019 season.
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If only it were this simple.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
And pitchers more than anyone. It's why you can't just assume pitching performance into the future, especially if certain trends appear such as declining velocity, reduced K/9, increased BB/9, etc.
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But that wouldn't apply to Julio. His K/9 is his best in 3 years and BB/9 is the best of his career.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
That was more of a general pitching observation than specific to Julio. But he has lost fastball velocity. Maybe that is by design, maybe not.
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It's been a few ticks. He's average 91.0 this year. 91.6 last year and 91.3 the year before. I don't see any red flags there. But maybe I don't know what I'm looking at.
 
thewupk said:
It's been a few ticks. He's average 91.0 this year. 91.6 last year and 91.3 the year before. I don't see any red flags there. But maybe I don't know what I'm looking at.
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I think it's a "watch" item. If he gets below 91 my concern level would go up.

To date, I have wanted Teheran traded because I thought his overall value would bring back more in return for a rebuilding team and mean more than his performance value to that same team over the period of his contract.

That is different than me saying that Teheran needs to be traded because he's about to implode and lose all or most value. I don't see that yet. But young pitchers are combustible and should be watched closely. I think being overly comfortable with the assumption of future good performance is a recipe for folly.
 
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