a better way
- Thread starter nsacpi
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Can we learn how once incredible systems break due to poor policy?
Do you typically like to conflate technological innovation with government policy?
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
We have lots of technological innovation in this country as well but our outcomes have been worse. American lifespans have shortened relative to Denmark and the Netherlands. Average heights are also shortening relative to those countries. The average white person in this country is getting shorter relative to their western European counterpart.
Yes - outcomes in a far more diverse nation.
Lets see what happens when th enew migrant population gets older in the Netherlands.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
White Americans are getting shorter relative to their western European counterparts. The life expectancies of white Americans have been getting shorter relative to their western European counterparts.
I know I know - You aren't normalizing for early drug induced deaths. The difference in outcome is negligible and not indicative of any great policy differences.
We get your games.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
White people in red states are among the demographic group that has done the worst in recent decades in terms of changes in life expectancy. It is not their skin tone. It is poor health policy. But other policies that have failed to address things like poor educational outcomes and poverty are also at work.
Yeah - Drug abuse is sad but on the right track.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Please compare changes in life expectancy of white people in red states with white people in blue states:
there's a solid body of research on this. Let me pull together what's known, including the race-specific data.
Yes, this is a well-researched question, and the answer is fairly striking. Here's what the evidence shows:
The big picture
Large and growing differences in life expectancy across states have emerged since around 1980, and they partly reflect dramatic changes in state policy environments that have polarized along partisan lines over the same period. PubMed Central
White populations specifically
Clear policy gradients emerge for White populations — life expectancy for white Americans is meaningfully patterned across the liberal-to-conservative policy spectrum, with the liberal state advantage growing over time. Male and female life expectancy could be as much as 2.8 and 2.1 years longer, respectively, under liberal state policy environments. Duke University Press
The gap has grown substantially
The difference between the highest and lowest life expectancy states has grown to 7.0 years — the largest ever recorded. syr
A concrete example
Oklahoma and Connecticut had identical life expectancies (71.1 years) in 1959. But between 1980 and 2019, life expectancy rose by just 2.5 years in Oklahoma (to 76.1), compared to a 5.9-year jump in Connecticut (to 80.8). Oklahoma's policy environment shifted toward conservative, while Connecticut's became more liberal. PRB
What's driving it
Research links more conservative marijuana policies and more liberal policies on environment, gun safety, labor rights, economic taxes, and tobacco taxes to lower mortality. Specifically, gun safety laws were associated with lower suicide risk among men, labor protections were tied to lower alcohol-related death, and tobacco and economic taxes were linked to lower cardiovascular death risk. PRB
What the studies can't fully tell us
Correlation does not prove causation, and many different factors affect who lives and who dies. Researchers try to control for population characteristics (education, income, demographics), but disentangling policy from those background factors is genuinely hard. The American Prospect
Where to find the data yourself
The best public datasets for this are:
The IHME dataset is probably the most useful for your specific question (white life expectancy by state, categorized by political lean), though it starts at 1990 rather than 1980. For pre-1990 white-specific state data you'd need to work with the CDC WONDER raw mortality files, which takes more effort.
there's a solid body of research on this. Let me pull together what's known, including the race-specific data.
Yes, this is a well-researched question, and the answer is fairly striking. Here's what the evidence shows:
The big picture
Large and growing differences in life expectancy across states have emerged since around 1980, and they partly reflect dramatic changes in state policy environments that have polarized along partisan lines over the same period. PubMed Central
White populations specifically
Clear policy gradients emerge for White populations — life expectancy for white Americans is meaningfully patterned across the liberal-to-conservative policy spectrum, with the liberal state advantage growing over time. Male and female life expectancy could be as much as 2.8 and 2.1 years longer, respectively, under liberal state policy environments. Duke University Press
The gap has grown substantially
The difference between the highest and lowest life expectancy states has grown to 7.0 years — the largest ever recorded. syr
A concrete example
Oklahoma and Connecticut had identical life expectancies (71.1 years) in 1959. But between 1980 and 2019, life expectancy rose by just 2.5 years in Oklahoma (to 76.1), compared to a 5.9-year jump in Connecticut (to 80.8). Oklahoma's policy environment shifted toward conservative, while Connecticut's became more liberal. PRB
What's driving it
Research links more conservative marijuana policies and more liberal policies on environment, gun safety, labor rights, economic taxes, and tobacco taxes to lower mortality. Specifically, gun safety laws were associated with lower suicide risk among men, labor protections were tied to lower alcohol-related death, and tobacco and economic taxes were linked to lower cardiovascular death risk. PRB
What the studies can't fully tell us
Correlation does not prove causation, and many different factors affect who lives and who dies. Researchers try to control for population characteristics (education, income, demographics), but disentangling policy from those background factors is genuinely hard. The American Prospect
Where to find the data yourself
The best public datasets for this are:
- IHME (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation) — they published state-level life expectancy by race/ethnicity (White, Black, Hispanic) from 1990–2019, including life expectancy at the state level by racial/ethnic group for each year between 1990 and 2019. Freely downloadable at healthdata.org. Global Health Data Exchange
- CDC WONDER — mortality and life expectancy by race, state, and year going back to 1968.
- U.S. Mortality Database (UC Berkeley) — state-level all-race data back to 1959.
The IHME dataset is probably the most useful for your specific question (white life expectancy by state, categorized by political lean), though it starts at 1990 rather than 1980. For pre-1990 white-specific state data you'd need to work with the CDC WONDER raw mortality files, which takes more effort.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Vermont is the standout American success story — gaining about 7.5 years since 1980, which puts it in the same ballpark as Denmark and the Netherlands in terms of improvement, even though it started lower. Liberal state policies, strong public health infrastructure, and relatively low rates of the "deaths of despair" (opioids, alcohol, suicide) that hit rural America help explain this.
Denmark and the Netherlands both had a well-documented stumble. Denmark experienced virtually no growth in life expectancy from 1980 to 1995, while the Netherlands experienced stagnation starting in the early 1980s and continuing until 2002. The culprits were largely smoking-related causes of death, particularly among older age groups, combined with delayed healthcare spending increases in the Netherlands. Both countries resumed strong gains after those stagnation periods and are now well above 81 years. PRBNCBI
West Virginia and Oklahoma are the alarming cases. Despite starting with life expectancies similar to or slightly above Vermont in 1980, they barely moved — West Virginia gained about 2 years and Oklahoma less than 1. West Virginia experienced a nearly continuous increase in midlife mortality throughout 1999–2017, the largest (33.8%) of any state, driven by the opioid crisis, alcohol, and chronic disease. Oklahoma followed a similar trajectory. PubMed Central
The net result: in 1980, Vermont and Oklahoma were within about 1 year of each other. By 2020, Vermont's residents could expect to live roughly 6 years longer than Oklahomans — a gap that rivals differences between wealthy and poor countries.
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Denmark and the Netherlands both had a well-documented stumble. Denmark experienced virtually no growth in life expectancy from 1980 to 1995, while the Netherlands experienced stagnation starting in the early 1980s and continuing until 2002. The culprits were largely smoking-related causes of death, particularly among older age groups, combined with delayed healthcare spending increases in the Netherlands. Both countries resumed strong gains after those stagnation periods and are now well above 81 years. PRBNCBI
West Virginia and Oklahoma are the alarming cases. Despite starting with life expectancies similar to or slightly above Vermont in 1980, they barely moved — West Virginia gained about 2 years and Oklahoma less than 1. West Virginia experienced a nearly continuous increase in midlife mortality throughout 1999–2017, the largest (33.8%) of any state, driven by the opioid crisis, alcohol, and chronic disease. Oklahoma followed a similar trajectory. PubMed Central
The net result: in 1980, Vermont and Oklahoma were within about 1 year of each other. By 2020, Vermont's residents could expect to live roughly 6 years longer than Oklahomans — a gap that rivals differences between wealthy and poor countries.
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nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
We can add mostly white red midwestern states to the picture. Their performances also lag those of Vermont, Denmark and the Netherlands
Change in life expectancy from 1980 to 2020:
Iowa 3.4 years
North Dakota 3.3
South Dakota 2.6
It is bad policy not skin tone that is causing red states to do so badly.
If you are a white American living in a red state your life is getting shorter relative to white Americans in blue states and relative to Europeans.
Change in life expectancy from 1980 to 2020:
Iowa 3.4 years
North Dakota 3.3
South Dakota 2.6
It is bad policy not skin tone that is causing red states to do so badly.
If you are a white American living in a red state your life is getting shorter relative to white Americans in blue states and relative to Europeans.
Not all 'rural' areas are made the same - You know that though.
Northeast is highly developed even in the rural areas.
Thats what happens when you've been settled by Europeans since the 16th century.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Keep those excuses coming. Iowa could use them.
Is that an excuse or is it the reality of the situation?
I'm a northeast apologist but you're just making awful comparisons right now.