A totally non overreacting look after 1 week

C

CJC

Mashin' to Mississippi
We are 7 games in. All at home and Sub .500. Some things will iron themselves out by nature of sample size, but some need to be addressed. I'd like to hear your thoughts. Here are mine.

Issues:

1. IF Depth - Riley got HBP in the hand and Albies hit the deck with on in the center of the back in the same game. Both didn't miss time, but it highlighted an issue. Arcia is ok to finish up a game. But if we get a broken hand, a hamstring issue, etc. from ANY of the 4 starters and we have issues. A long term injury puts us in a terrible spot. Arcia is a .600ish OPS guy. Our best IF prospect is probably Shewmake who is also a .600 OPS guy. Gosselin could possible put up near .700 OPS but he's turned in minus DRS lately in the IF.

(Solution: Probably going to have to address this via trade if it becomes an issue. Not sure we have much prospect capital to move)

2. Lineup Construction - We have a DH this year and will for the foreseeable future. The conventional play is to get a Nelson Cruz type to bash and not hurt you in the field. The Rays way is to rotate your multi position guys in and out of DH for "Days off" without sacrificing good at bats. We have rolled Arcia and Dickerson out there at the bottom of the order for every game and I'm not sure why?

(Solutions: Obviously in a month the plan is for Acuna to be in the field with Duvall and Rosario and Ozuna will be the main DH. That's fine. Until then? Heredia should get some OF starts to at least improve the Defense while Ozuna DH's. D'Arnaud should get some DH days especially when we carried 3 C's.)

3. Bench bats in general - Yes. Acuna's return knocks everyone down a notch and improves this situation, but this is an area that needs to improve. Are we going to have to hit for P's in late innings? Not anymore, but we will still get tired players and need to use the bench and DH spot in a proper way to not have 400 Arcia At Bat's this year.

(Solutions: A decent quality Platoon solution via trade. See if Greyson Jenista can be a .750 OPS guy. He's been a low .700s guy in the minor, but has a SSS hot start at age 25 in Gwinnett. Longer? Michael Harris looks to be for real, but he's age 21. Trey Harris was really hurt by not having a 2020. He's old for AA at 26, but hopefully can play well enough to level up given his age and his hitting at A ball in 18-19)

4. Bullpen in non Night Shift situation - A positive is that Jansen/Matzek/Smith don't have 4-5 innings on their arms already mainly due to game situation, but we have over relied on Strider, who I think looks like he can contribute in high leverage, and roster management to eat "ugly" innings with Davidson, etc. There isn't a Tomlin guy to pitch 4 innings in these situations.

(Solution: Roll with Stephens, Thornburg, O'Day - Save Strider for when we need a 5th inning guy or later if the Night Shift is tired. The inning bridge guy can be the loser of the Starter competition. I think Wright and Elder get the 4/5 spots. Ynoa is probably a swingman candidate. Also, AA didn't exactly make it a secret that we made a run at Verlander or other SPs so I think if we find a good value then the move is made to go with a better 3 for a playoff rotation and make Anderson the 4. That would add another piece for this situation. Also, if Soroka can actually be himself, it obviously would help)

Everyone else's thoughts?
 
I don't think Jenista is the answer unless the question is who are we trading at the deadline.

I don't think there is anything that can be done to improve the team w/o a big outlay of money and/or prospects. Not at this point in the season.

Acuna coming back is big.

AA has shown he can improve the team at the deadline.

I think you essentially roll the same lineup out there. Duvall in CF, Ronnie in RF and then whomever in LF. Ozuna DH. Whatever you want to do w/ Catcher out of the two. And then your infield studs.

I'm on record from before the year that Elder is a great 5 and you just leave him there. Hope Wright locks down 4. You'll need spot starts with the compressed schedule and injuries from Strider, davidson, touki, muller.

Let the season play out and the team will win enough to make the playoffs. Nobody cheap is going to better than Duvall/Rosario/Dickerson except maybe Harris. And I think Harris is too young and too low a level to even consider until roster expansion. Waters can't stay on the field.
 
Acuna coming back obviously changes things dramatically. The top four of that lineup will be very good- especially if Ozuna keeps hitting- and you'll get enough production from guys like Ozzie, Duvall, and d'arnaud to fill out the bottom half of the lineup. The bench also gets better with someone like Dickerson sliding out of the lineup- I feel like he's had some bad batted ball luck so far.

Unfortunately, Snit's infatuation with Arcia has been somewhat rewarded in the results. We'll probably continue to see more of him as a consequence.

The rotation has me simultaneously worried (I'm concerned about Anderson and I'm concerned we're going to keep running Ynoa out there for awhile) and optimistic (Wright and Elder both look like legitimate MLB caliber starters). But the SSS of literally one start each makes everything that I just said premature.

In general, I'm going to avoid passing judgement on anything until Ronnie settles into the lineup and we have a larger sample.
 
In short: all the holes we knew were there before the season started are still there.

The good news is this roster is so talented it should be in playoff contention barring absolutely devastatingly bad injury luck.

The only hope for an internal solution is Harris, and I imagine he gets a shot sometime around mid-late June. That gives them a little over 1 month with Acuna back to realize Rosario/Duvall probably aren't going to cut it, and then ~1 month before the deadline to see what Harris can provide. After that AA will have to grab this year's version of Soler/Duvall/Rosario and hope for similar results.

As far as SP goes, I fully expect to "see what they have" until the deadline, at which point AA will be in the mix for all available SPs.
 
Forgot conforto is still out there. If we have correra money then signing conforto makes us much better.

Can’t imagine you five Rosario two years if that had any chance
 
The good news is I feel our biggest weakness is the bench and the other things we need are luxuries. I’m pretty confident we can address that.in season.
 
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