AA Under the Radar; Could a Blockbuster be coming?

rico43

rico43

<B>Director of Minor League Reports</B>
One thing has been consistent since AA became Braves' GM; none of his personnel moves have been tipped off, or even expected. Sure, much was speculated about Hamels coming to Atlanta, but that falls under the category of logical fit.

We're hearing that Josh Donaldson is getting too pricey for the Braves, and possibly so is Bumgarner. But if his $100 demand can be fit in the budget, there's a move that hasn't even been floated that I'd like to be consider.

Look at it this way: if Bumgarner does join Hamels atop the rotation, there is no need for Newcomb to be part of the rotation, and there are plenty of lefties in the pen. So, suddenly, he's quite expediable. So let's make a package that includes Newcomb, Tooki Toussaint, one of either Riley or Camargo and one of either Waters or Contreras. For what?

Good question. Consider that the Reds are rumored to be moving Castillo, and the team is shopping for a corner outfielder and needs arms. I think that package might well be enough to secure Eugenio Suarez.

Why Suarez? First of all, he's only 27. Second, dude hit 49 homers and even though he led the league in striking out, he drove in over 100 runs for the second straight season. Third, he's a countryman of Acuna's. Fourth: he's a bargain, under contract through 2025 -- 20:$9.25M, 21:$10.5M, 22:$11M, 23:$11M, 24:$11M, 25:$15M club option ($2M buyout).

I'm not gonna bang the drum too loudly over this, but we keep hearing about all the currency the Braves have in the farm system. Maybe it won't take that much; certainly would not give more.
 
Reds aren't moving Suarez IMO - he's the only offense they had last year, and they overpaid for Moose to help him.

Suarez is their version of Freeman - that guy that everybody says is one of the most underrated players in the game, yet even then he's still underrated.

Where did you see they're considering moving Castillo??? Maybe before they signed Moose - now they're dead-set on contending, and Touki or Newk would be their #5 at the very best. Contreras may not be as good as Tyler Stephenson, and is further away.

Change the offer to Waters, Riley, Wright, and Anderson and they might not hang up the phone.
 
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rico43 said:
One thing has been consistent since AA became Braves' GM; none of his personnel moves have been tipped off, or even expected. Sure, much was speculated about Hamels coming to Atlanta, but that falls under the category of logical fit.

We're hearing that Josh Donaldson is getting too pricey for the Braves, and possibly so is Bumgarner. But if his $100 demand can be fit in the budget, there's a move that hasn't even been floated that I'd like to be consider.

Look at it this way: if Bumgarner does join Hamels atop the rotation, there is no need for Newcomb to be part of the rotation, and there are plenty of lefties in the pen. So, suddenly, he's quite expediable. So let's make a package that includes Newcomb, Tooki Toussaint, one of either Riley or Camargo and one of either Waters or Contreras. For what?

Good question. Consider that the Reds are rumored to be moving Castillo, and the team is shopping for a corner outfielder and needs arms. I think that package might well be enough to secure Eugenio Suarez.

Why Suarez? First of all, he's only 27. Second, dude hit 49 homers and even though he led the league in striking out, he drove in over 100 runs for the second straight season. Third, he's a countryman of Acuna's. Fourth: he's a bargain, under contract through 2025 -- 20:$9.25M, 21:$10.5M, 22:$11M, 23:$11M, 24:$11M, 25:$15M club option ($2M buyout).

I'm not gonna bang the drum too loudly over this, but we keep hearing about all the currency the Braves have in the farm system. Maybe it won't take that much; certainly would not give more.
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Yeah I’m sorry Rico, but Newk, Touki, and Camargo have little to no trade value, unless they’re thrown into a package with Pache and Anderson. No one wants our AAAA rejects.
 
Newk and Touki probably each have somewhere between 10-15 million in surplus value presently. May be you could argue Newk has closer to 20 million in surplus value being that he's had some success both as a starter and reliever. Camargo has barely any surplus value now that he's arb eligible. He was a non-tender candidate for a reason. He'd have to repeat 2018 in order to gain much value.

The point is, while they have value, those guys are most certainly secondary pieces at this point. I can't imagine anyone trading a franchise level player with lots of control for a package consisting of mostly secondary pieces and 1 good but not great prospect. Now, a package consisting of Newk, Touki, Waters, and Riley would be a decent offer in general as that package is likely worth around 90 million or more in surplus value and Suarez has roughly 100 million or more in surplus value.

The main issue is the Reds aren't trading Suarez. They are looking to add quality players to their team, not take away. Senzel is the one piece you could argue they might part with, but I imagine it would have to be for an established star with lots of cheap control. Certainly we don't have anyone that fits that mold that we are willing to trade. Closest thing is Ender, but I doubt they have much of interest in parting with Senzel in a deal where Ender is the headliner.
 
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Response to Ricos post. Not sure about rumors to move Castillo but all else checks about Reds. Moose is better at 3d, need pitching bad, want to contend, so I am going to play along with the block buster idea and change the package a bit. Braves get Castillo and Saurez.
Send to Reds: Folty, Fried, Wright, Waters, Camargo and Riley. But only RIley after/if AA signs Ozuna or other cOF. Money wise the trade packages are a wash, leaves room for that cOf or a 5th starter
 
I think the big move is coming. 40 man crunch and where we are in the win cycle. We are less able to let guys play and figure it out.

I think AA wants to upgrade big time at 2 of 3B, SS and OF not named Acuna. Sign one and trade for the other.

There are a ton of options to do that, but it's tough if you want to hang onto Pache, Waters and Anderson.

The reds do have pieces I like. I would think they would be interested in Ender, but maybe they think Senzel can really play CF. I think Winker is a useful piece for us. Not a JD replacement piece but a guy that makes us better.

I think the Marlins' Brian Anderson is the sneaky move. He'll cost a lot b/c he's controlled until 2024. But he can play 3B or OF. Marlins are going to contend for 3 years at least. The Braves and Marlins know what the marlins like for prospects given all of the realmuto discussion. Marlins would have to think outside the box and move him early. But he's not a draw there. They've tried to trade guys with a couple years of control and not gotten much. Riley, Muller and Wright? I think they'd want at least one of the big 3.
 
Brian Anderson...very interesting target.

I'm guessing the Marlins are too dumb to realize they won't be contending soon enough for Anderson to help them, but he would be an excellent reason to fleece those morons.
 
Enscheff said:
Brian Anderson...very interesting target.

I'm guessing the Marlins are too dumb to realize they won't be contending soon enough for Anderson to help them, but he would be an excellent reason to fleece those morons.
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Anderson would be a terrific pick up since he would give us the flexibility to play him in spots other than 3rd base if either Riley or Camargo decide to become competent players.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
I would be onboard for an Anderson trade. It would be a steep price though. Even with the fish being dumb.
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He's projected for 2.2 wins next year, but I think it'd be fair to valuate him at 3 wins for all four of his remaining contract years to get to 12 wins. He'll probably make around 40 million in arbitration, so 96-40=56 million dollar valuation on him. Given the Marlins are dumb, I would offer them a package in the 40-45 million dollar range on the off chance that they would bite. They seem to value those high risk high reward types of prospects. The types of guys with big flashy tools, but questions surrounding their hit tool. So maybe they would overvalue a guy like Riley and take a package of him plus a 45 FV arm or a 40 FV bat.
 
Arenado anyone? Has Opt out after 21 and is owed $35M/pretty much every year....

N/M see it now in the other thread. Responses about like I thought.
 
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Horsehide Harry said:
Arenado anyone? Has Opt out after 21 and is owed $35M/pretty much every year....

N/M see it now in the other thread. Responses about like I thought.
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Yeah he has an opt out, not the club. That means if he sucks outside of Coors, tough crap. AA has shown he won't do a long term contract like that so why in the world would he trade big prospects to acquire an awful long term contract?? If he was going to go that route, he'd be just giving Rendon that money and keeping the prospects.
 
PawPawMaxwell said:
Response to Ricos post. Not sure about rumors to move Castillo but all else checks about Reds. Moose is better at 3d, need pitching bad, want to contend, so I am going to play along with the block buster idea and change the package a bit. Braves get Castillo and Saurez.
Send to Reds: Folty, Fried, Wright, Waters, Camargo and Riley. But only RIley after/if AA signs Ozuna or other cOF. Money wise the trade packages are a wash, leaves room for that cOf or a 5th starter
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Working on your idea, the Reds need plenty of OF help, and assuming they don't want Duvall back, I can see the Braves making them eat Inciarte's contract in return for getting a boatload of prospect. Still think Contreras is a valid bargaining chip also.
 
PawPawMaxwell said:
Response to Ricos post. Not sure about rumors to move Castillo but all else checks about Reds. Moose is better at 3d, need pitching bad, want to contend, so I am going to play along with the block buster idea and change the package a bit. Braves get Castillo and Saurez.
Send to Reds: Folty, Fried, Wright, Waters, Camargo and Riley. But only RIley after/if AA signs Ozuna or other cOF. Money wise the trade packages are a wash, leaves room for that cOf or a 5th starter
Click to expand...

It was a legit reporter on Twitter refer Castillo.
 
Arenado carries roughly zero surplus value. He could make sense depending on how much cash the Rox are willing to eat for a prospect like Riley.
 
Enscheff said:
Arenado carries roughly zero surplus value. He could make sense depending on how much cash the Rox are willing to eat for a prospect like Riley.
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Hmm. Maybe have the Rox kick in 40- 50 million total and the Braves split that over 20 and 21s payroll to basically cover Freeman’s contract. Now you have your long term 3rd baseman and have payroll in check for the next 2 years.
 
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