Acuna and batting order position

Yeah, Minter face planting really hurts. Just another example of BP arms being volatile.

The best option for a RHH OFer may actually be Riley if he gets going again and makes an adjustment. He handled LF defensively much better than anyone could have hoped.
 
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Carp said:
Your post clearly shows Acuna with a 35 point advantage batting in the 1 hole.

Chalk one up for the mouth breathers.
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Wait...that number doesn't count - just the other ones.

Just mouth-breathing here, but I'll betcha Acuna doesn't swipe 33 bases hitting in front of Freeman either - Snitker wouldn't let him run that often in that spot.

Make the argument that Snit SHOULDN'T put up a stop sign all anyone likes, he's the one making that decision (so far). His "old-schoolness" leads him to ignore the numbers in 95% of his decisions - what on earth makes someone think he wouldn't tie Ronald to 1B to make sure he's not distracting his best hitter when he's at the plate?
 
clvclv said:
Wait...that number doesn't count - just the other ones.

Just mouth-breathing here, but I'll betcha Acuna doesn't swipe 33 bases hitting in front of Freeman either - Snitker wouldn't let him run that often in that spot.

Make the argument that Snit SHOULDN'T put up a stop sign all anyone likes, he's the one making that decision (so far). His "old-schoolness" leads him to ignore the numbers in 95% of his decisions - what on earth makes someone think he wouldn't tie Ronald to 1B to make sure he's not distracting his best hitter when he's at the plate?
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Isn’t acuna stealing bases in front of FF anyway. It is one spot difference. I don’t think a base stealer is really a distraction is a thing.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
Isn’t acuna stealing bases in front of FF anyway. It is one spot difference. I don’t think a base stealer is really a distraction is a thing.
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clv should review the data and let us know who was as at bat when Acuna attempted to steal a base. I expect a report on my desk by close of business.

So ordered.
 
clvclv said:
Wait...that number doesn't count - just the other ones.

Just mouth-breathing here, but I'll betcha Acuna doesn't swipe 33 bases hitting in front of Freeman either - Snitker wouldn't let him run that often in that spot.

Make the argument that Snit SHOULDN'T put up a stop sign all anyone likes, he's the one making that decision (so far). His "old-schoolness" leads him to ignore the numbers in 95% of his decisions - what on earth makes someone think he wouldn't tie Ronald to 1B to make sure he's not distracting his best hitter when he's at the plate?
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:facepalm:
 
clvclv said:
Wait...that number doesn't count - just the other ones.

Just mouth-breathing here, but I'll betcha Acuna doesn't swipe 33 bases hitting in front of Freeman either - Snitker wouldn't let him run that often in that spot.

Make the argument that Snit SHOULDN'T put up a stop sign all anyone likes, he's the one making that decision (so far). His "old-schoolness" leads him to ignore the numbers in 95% of his decisions - what on earth makes someone think he wouldn't tie Ronald to 1B to make sure he's not distracting his best hitter when he's at the plate?
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I think my post flew over your head.
 
Some quick numbers to illustrate the point:

The Braves have scored a total of 344 runs on 218 HRs. That means they hit a HR with 0.58 runners on base, on average.

Acuna has hit 36 HRs: 23 with 0 men on, 11 with 1 man on, 1 with 2 men on, 1 with 3 men on...average of 0.44 runners on base.

Freeman has hit 38 HRS: 22 with 0 men on, 12 with 1 man on, 4 with 2 men on, 1 with 3 men on...average of 0.61 runners on base.

Donaldson has hit 34 HRS: 21 with 0 men on, 6 with 1 man on, 7 with 2 men on, 0 with 3 men on...average of 0.59 runners on base.

Are we starting to see the problem batting Acuna lead off?

Moving him from #2 to #1 gains him ~17 PAs over the course of a season, which is roughly 1 extra HR out of him. Problem is, the cost of that 1 extra HR is ~0.15 runners on base for each HR he hits. Multiply that 0.15 by the 40+ HRs he is going to hit each year, and that's 6+ runs left on the table simply due to the fact he is hitting so many solo HRs. That's half a win the Braves could gain with nothing more than the swipe of a sharpie.

Fact of the matter is someone else needs to be hitting in front of the Acuna/Freeman/Donaldson trio. There are several high-OBP low(er)-ISO options to choose from on this roster.
 
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Acuna: 642 total PAs
0 on: 393 PAs (61.2%)
Men on: 249 PAs (38.8%)

Freeman: 619 total PAs
0 on: 350 PAs (56.5%)
Men on: 269 PAs (43.5%)

Donaldson: 578 total PAs
0 on: 328 PAs (56.7%)
Men on: 250 PAs (43.3%)

Acuna's batting position is costing one of the top 3 power hitters on the team about 10% of his chances to bat with men on base. If he were batting 2nd he would have about ~15 fewer total PAs, yet still came to bat ~272 times with men on base...which is ~23 more times than he has so far this season.

I'm pretty sure it's better to have Acuna batting with men on base more often than the extra 15 PAs batting lead off has gained him in 2019.
 
Enscheff said:
Some quick numbers to illustrate the point:

The Braves have scored a total of 344 runs on 218 HRs. That means they hit a HR with 0.58 runners on base, on average.

Acuna has hit 36 HRs: 23 with 0 men on, 11 with 1 man on, 1 with 2 men on, 1 with 3 men on...average of 0.44 runners on base.

Freeman has hit 38 HRS: 22 with 0 men on, 12 with 1 man on, 4 with 2 men on, 1 with 3 men on...average of 0.61 runners on base.

Donaldson has hit 34 HRS: 21 with 0 men on, 6 with 1 man on, 7 with 2 men on, 0 with 3 men on...average of 0.59 runners on base.

Are we starting to see the problem batting Acuna lead off?

Moving him from #2 to #1 gains him ~17 PAs over the course of a season, which is roughly 1 extra HR out of him. Problem is, the cost of that 1 extra HR is ~0.15 runners on base for each HR he hits. Multiply that 0.15 by the 40+ HRs he is going to hit each year, and that's 6+ runs left on the table simply due to the fact he is hitting so many solo HRs. That's half a win the Braves could gain with nothing more than the swipe of a sharpie.

Fact of the matter is someone else needs to be hitting in front of the Acuna/Freeman/Donaldson trio. There are several high-OBP low(er)-ISO options to choose from on this roster.
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65-34 since Acuna was moved into the leadoff spot - please provide a more important number. I'll help you with the math so you don't need to consult FanGraphs - that's a .65656566 winning percentage (2/every 3 for those not consulting their calculators).

I'll be mouth breathing for a bit with unbelievable expectation.

For all that's holy, PLEASE change the lineup.
 
clvclv said:
65-34 since Acuna was moved into the leadoff spot - please provide a more important number. I'll help you with the math so you don't need to consult FanGraphs - that's a .65656566 winning percentage (2/every 3 for those not consulting their calculators).

I'll be mouth breathing for a bit with unbelievable expectation.

For all that's holy, PLEASE change the lineup.
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:facepalm:
 
It would be foolish, dumb, stupid and an unnecessary gamble to move him out of the leadoff spot this season.
 
Yeah, it made perfect sense to move him to the 1 spot when he was struggling, but makes zero sense to move him out of the 1 slot when he’s struggling.

The correct place for Acuna to bat is second, and I just showed how many runs it is costing the Braves not having him there.
 
Enscheff said:
Yeah, it made perfect sense to move him to the 1 spot when he was struggling, but makes zero sense to move him out of the 1 slot when he’s struggling.

The correct place for Acuna to bat is second, and I just showed how many runs it is costing the Braves not having him there.
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Let me preface this by saying your analysis is always on point. But one thing I noticed you never take into account is the mental aspect of the game. Not saying there is anything to it here, but to me there has to be some reason he's hitting first that we are not aware of.
 
NYCBrave said:
Let me preface this by saying your analysis is always on point. But one thing I noticed you never take into account is the mental aspect of the game. Not saying there is anything to it here, but to me there has to be some reason he's hitting first that we are not aware of.
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Because he was moved there last year and made an adjustment that started his hitting. But the batting position was clearly the reason he is a good hitter not the adjustment or his talent. Sure he likes to lead off but that isn’t a reason to bat him lead off.

We have said this many times. The lead off spot is proven to see the fewest runners on base per at bat than any other batting position. So naturally let’s have one of our top three hit there.
 
NYCBrave said:
Let me preface this by saying your analysis is always on point. But one thing I noticed you never take into account is the mental aspect of the game. Not saying there is anything to it here, but to me there has to be some reason he's hitting first that we are not aware of.
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Sure, there’s a mental part to the game that’s undeniable. That’s the managers job: to frame these things to players in ways that help them adjust mentally.

No closer is used to the 9th until he pitches in the 9th, but that’s only because players have been taught that the 9th is special. If the situation was framed as the BP Ace being used against the best part of the opposing lineup because they want best vs best, that will then be the special case...just like the opening starter of a series or season.

Frame the move as a way to get Acuna’s potent bat in position to contribute the most. Realize he hits the same regardless of lineup position, slumps and all.

If Snit can’t be a good tactician or a good communicator, what’s the point of employing him?
 
Enscheff said:
Sure, there’s a mental part to the game that’s undeniable. That’s the managers job: to frame these things to players in ways that help them adjust mentally.

No closer is used to the 9th until he pitches in the 9th, but that’s only because players have been taught that the 9th is special. If the situation was framed as the BP Ace being used against the best part of the opposing lineup because they want best vs best, that will then be the special case...just like the opening starter of a series or season.

Frame the move as a way to get Acuna’s potent bat in position to contribute the most. Realize he hits the same regardless of lineup position, slumps and all.

If Snit can’t be a good tactician or a good communicator, what’s the point of employing him?
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The argument for Snit is what it has always been (to the extent it is an valid argument): he has a good clubhouse and the team seems to consistently outperform expectations (and the underlying numbers) during his tenure.

This other stuff...clearly not going to change. That's too bad. I'd like some things to be different, but you can see it's not gonna be.
 
We've seen a few cases where the FO clearly stepped in and corrected some of Snit's worst decisions. For example, playing the correct platoon match ups in the OF has a much larger impact on team performance, and we saw the lineups change immediately after Snit's "we have everyday players" comment.

Granted, flipping Albies and Acuna in the 1-2 spots isn't going to be a huge deal, which is likely why the FO lets it go. However, a correct move can be a correct move even if the overall impact is small. Those small improvements add up over 162 games, and if the race was closer those few extra runs could be the difference between October baseball and no more baseball.
 
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