AcuñaMania

nsacpi said:
It is not much appreciated around here, but in his first six seasons Heyward had four seasons with a WAR in excess of 4.5, 3 in excess of 5 and two in excess of 6. I would the thrilled if Acuna did something like that.

From your past comments, I know you see Heyward in a more hazy light than I do, but during those first six years (which are the ones that really matter since after those six years most players get paid market rate) Heyward was a tremendously productive player.
Click to expand...

Folks would do well to look at how good Heyward was during his A+/AA/AAA tour as a 19 year old. The 1.066 OPS he posted in AA was on the back of a .360 BABIP...40 points lower than the BABIP Acuna has been rocking for his 1.000 OPS.

Are folks going to say Acuna is faster and hits the ball harder than a young Heyward?

And yes, folks should be doing back flips if Acuna produces 27 WAR over his first 6 years of control like Heyward did.
 
Super said:
I know he was. I loved Heyward and I miss watching him play (at least defensively).
His offense was always a little frustrating to me, outside of his rookie year & 2012. He's only 28 so he could still rebound, but it's very possible he's finished as a productive offensive player. His WAR was usually up there for his defense, and maybe WAR is right, but I'm not sure.
I hope and think Acuna will be more consistent offensively and for a longer period of time.
Click to expand...

Most likely though Acuna will be viewed as a disappointment. Due to the haze of high expectations.
 
Enscheff said:
Folks would do well to look at how good Heyward was during his A+/AA/AAA tour as a 19 year old. The 1.066 OPS he posted in AA was on the back of a .360 BABIP...40 points lower than the BABIP Acuna has been rocking for his 1.000 OPS.

Are folks going to say Acuna is faster and hits the ball harder than a young Heyward?

And yes, folks should be doing back flips if Acuna produces 27 WAR over his first 6 years of control like Heyward did.
Click to expand...

Yep... I posted many pages ago that Acuna's numbers are less impressive than Heyward's at the same age, and Heyward is seen as an "average hitter"
 
sturg33 said:
Yep... I posted many pages ago that Acuna's numbers are less impressive than Heyward's at the same age, and Heyward is seen as an "average hitter"
Click to expand...

People used the word average in a peculiar way. Anyone not a really outstanding hitter it would seem would fit into the average category.

It is what I call the haze of high expectations. Haze is a view obscured by smoke. But not all types of smoke affect our ability to see equally. There are some who are more disposed toward particular types of haze.
 
Super said:
I know he was. I loved Heyward and I miss watching him play (at least defensively).
His offense was always a little frustrating to me, outside of his rookie year & 2012. He's only 28 so he could still rebound, but it's very possible he's finished as a productive offensive player. His WAR was usually up there for his defense, and maybe WAR is right, but I'm not sure.
I hope and think Acuna will be more consistent offensively and for a longer period of time.
Click to expand...

i just think you need to be careful not to get too high on Acuna...that's all...sorry to be so blunt but I think it could lead to impaired judgment and slow reaction times
 
nsacpi said:
i just think you need to be careful not to get too high on Acuna...that's all...sorry to be so blunt but I think it could lead to impaired judgment and slow reaction times
Click to expand...

thanks dad, i will temper my expectations (that i have not stated).
 
sturg33 said:
Yep... I posted many pages ago that Acuna's numbers are less impressive than Heyward's at the same age, and Heyward is seen as an "average hitter"
Click to expand...

But Heyward produced his best offensively his rookie year and regressed from there. Acuna could go the way of Heyward or the way of Freeman offensively. He could just as easily not even be as good as Heyward was the year or two before becoming a free agent. Heyward is a peculiar case because it was completely reasonable to expect more offensive production from him based on pretty much everything.
 
This is why Acuna is not #1:

Philbert
10:28 Of everyone with at least 50 PA at A+ in their age-18 season between 2006 and 2016, the best wRC+ is 117. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is currently at 174 in 173 plate appearances.

Jeff Sullivan
10:28 A teenager with power, and more walks than strikeouts. He's an absurdity
 
smootness said:
But have you looked at his batted ball profile? I don't understand why on some arguments you guys seem to ignore the data you usually prefer. 'I don't think there's any way he can do that because not many players do, and he's not good enough.' That doesn't seem like a good enough answer to me. Since when is a 'he's not good enough' opinion satisfactory for you when discussing something like BABIP?
Click to expand...

I haven't and when I get home I will look at it
 
smootness said:
That's certainly fair enough.

Is this 4% number all major league position players, or just starters? If it's just starters, then on average you still have one every 3 teams. If it includes all players, it's probably higher, more like one every 2. Either way, I don't think it's insane to think that the top prospect in baseball, who has plenty of speed and has sustained a very high BABIP in the minors, could be one of those guys.
Click to expand...

4% of players since 2000 who have enough qualified plate apperances(800 plus players) had the 340 babip mark or higher for that period. That's a good enough sample for me but extending it out may yield different results.
 
Enscheff said:
Yes, we do. Scroll down to "Batted Ball": http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa877503&position=OF

He doesn't have the profile of a guy that sustains a super high BABIP. He hits too many FBs, and far too many IFFBs to sustain a BABIP over about .320.

Look at Jeter's batted ball profile...that's what is needed to sustain a BABIP over .340.

Acuna is getting lucky, just like CJ did when he batted .321 and won a batting title. He is unlikely to get lucky at the MLB level over an extended period of time. He will settle in around .300-.320 just like everyone else, and when he does, he won't be within shouting distance of the 1.000 OPS he is posting in AAA...more like low .700s in 2018.
Click to expand...

Ok, sorry, thewupk said we didn't have a way of measuring that for minor leaguers.

And Jeter is not the only guy you can look at. Check out Freeman's batted ball profile. He has far higher FB rates than Jeter, yet he also sustains a very high BABIP. Acuna seems to have progressed to the kind of LD rate you want, and his IFFB rate has come down significantly while his HR/FB rate has jumped.

Go check out Trout's batted ball profile in the minors. You would look at that and say he just got stupid lucky in the minors. Yet he continued to post extremely high BABIP numbers in the majors while his batted ball profile improved. But he still posts a high FB rate.
 
Enscheff said:
This is why Acuna is not #1:

Philbert
10:28 Of everyone with at least 50 PA at A+ in their age-18 season between 2006 and 2016, the best wRC+ is 117. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is currently at 174 in 173 plate appearances.

Jeff Sullivan
10:28 A teenager with power, and more walks than strikeouts. He's an absurdity
Click to expand...

I love Vlad Jr. and listed him as one of 2 guys I would be ok with having ahead of Acuna at this point. But no one has him listed at #1, and I'm not sure how many have him ahead of Acuna. So when you say this is why Acuna isn't #1, what do you mean? On your list?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top