Adonis Garcia, Best Case Scenario?

J

jimsnores

Mashin' to Mississippi
With the experiment of sending Olivera to the outfield, some are speculating that Garcia will be the starting third baseman next year. I just checked the stats from the Venezuelan Winter League, and he's hitting well there. Is there a possibility that his MLB OPS last year (.790) wasn't a fluke, and that maybe Seitzer helped him figure something out? Early scouting reports for Olivera suggest that he could be a plus defender in left with some work. If Garcia could repeat or better his performance and improve a little with the glove and Olivera really is the .280 hitter with 20 plus dingers that the Johns promise, the lineup might not be as bad as expected.

Is that like hoping that Folty turns into Max Scherzer, with Miller pitching like first half 2015 Miller and Teheran pictching like second half 2015 :banana:Teheran all at the same time, or is it not such a stretch?

(Wouldn't it be nice if all five of those things did happen?)
 
Garcia hitting 20-25 homers seems like a plausible prediction. The defense was what concerned me, so that report is pretty encouraging.
 
rico43 said:
Garcia hitting 20-25 homers seems like a plausible prediction. The defense was what concerned me, so that report is pretty encouraging.
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That is an extremely optimistic prediction. First, he likely won't get enough ABs anyway. But even if he did, it's likely last year was a bit of an aberration in terms of power.

He has 15 career AAA HR in 872 AB. And 21 career minor league HR in 1,114 AB.

FWIW, I also think a similar prediction for Olivera is optimistic. My guess is he hits more like 15.
 
I just ran into John Hart at Honeybaked Ham and had a discussion about this.

Basically he told me they envision Adonis to be a Scott Rolen-Travis Fryman type player at third with a tinge of Tony Batista offensively.

"Look, when we look at it, what we see is a guy that has tremendous upside and power at the dish, a cleanup type hitter like Tony Batista and a gold glove caliber defender like Rolen and Fryman. Look, everyone thinks that the Olivera move to the outfield was due to the fact that he can't play in the infield, that's not true, in fact that's not true at all, he's a plus defender but with Adonis's development, we see a guy that can help us win, and win now. And the best part about it is, after seeing Olivera in the outfield, wow brings back shades of Griffey Jr, so now when you look at our roster, we got filled 2 needs right off the bat. And look, when you look at it, not only did we fill those needs, we filled those needs with 2, I say 2 elite talents that have tremendous upside"
 
rico43 said:
Garcia hitting 20-25 homers seems like a plausible prediction. The defense was what concerned me, so that report is pretty encouraging.
Click to expand...

Yea that's way too optimistic in my opinion. The guy is nothing more then a AAAA player or bat off the bench
 
emk418 said:
Yea that's way too optimistic in my opinion. The guy is nothing more then a AAAA player or bat off the bench
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Well last year was the first time he's ever been given a chance in the Majors at all... had a career minor league OPS of .790... 20-25 homers is likely a little too optimistic, but I think assuming he's just a AAAA guy or only a bench guy is a little short sighted. He earned a shot last year and is still largely an unknown. He at least looks like he could be a useful platoon player if his defense can get up to passable.
 
Seriously guys...

Garcia is 30 years old and has hit 21 HRs in almost 1200 MiLB PAs, yet some of you think he can hit 20+ at the MLB level in a single season? Your argument is, "he hasn't been given a chance"? Now some of you think he will outperform Olivera?

Players like Garcia are precisely why the Braves are going to be terrible next year. He doesn't belong on a MLB roster other than as the 25th man.
 
Millwood1Hitter said:
I just ran into John Hart at Honeybaked Ham and had a discussion about this.

Basically he told me they envision Adonis to be a Scott Rolen-Travis Fryman type player at third with a tinge of Tony Batista offensively.

"Look, when we look at it, what we see is a guy that has tremendous upside and power at the dish, a cleanup type hitter like Tony Batista and a gold glove caliber defender like Rolen and Fryman. Look, everyone thinks that the Olivera move to the outfield was due to the fact that he can't play in the infield, that's not true, in fact that's not true at all, he's a plus defender but with Adonis's development, we see a guy that can help us win, and win now. And the best part about it is, after seeing Olivera in the outfield, wow brings back shades of Griffey Jr, so now when you look at our roster, we got filled 2 needs right off the bat. And look, when you look at it, not only did we fill those needs, we filled those needs with 2, I say 2 elite talents that have tremendous upside"
Click to expand...

Very impressive memory you have there.
 
zbhargrove said:
Well last year was the first time he's ever been given a chance in the Majors at all... had a career minor league OPS of .790... 20-25 homers is likely a little too optimistic, but I think assuming he's just a AAAA guy or only a bench guy is a little short sighted. He earned a shot last year and is still largely an unknown. He at least looks like he could be a useful platoon player if his defense can get up to passable.
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That's a reasonable assessment. In my original post, my question was intended to ask if it were possible not likely that Garcia might be more than he would seem to be, based on his minor league record. The very question presumes that it is not the most likely scenario. It's the off season, and one where optimism is not the prevailing mood for those of us who are Braves fans. I just thought it would be fun to dream. To some extent, such an outcome for Garcia wouldn't be unprecedented.

In 2008 and 2009, respectively, Jose Bautista hit 15 and 13 homers, respectively, in 424 and 404 at bats, respectively. In 2010, he hit 54, and his continued slugging showed that it wasn't a Brady Anderson PED type fluke. While I am in no way suggesting that Garcia will become Joey Bats, I did think it would be fun to ask the question, is it possible that he could at least become more than ever expected?
 
Given his age and the uncertainty about his defense I'd say the best case scenario is flipping him to some team for a top prospect and a young left-handed MLB starter with a ~3.30 ERA.

Erm, Happy Thanksgiving everybody.

But in all seriousness, anyone remember that fluky good year Jorge Campillo put up back during some other miserable season? I kind of see Adonis' 2015 as that. Would love to be pleasantly surprised.
 
Assuming that many of you actually failed to watch that death march towards October, but I base my optimism on Garcia on the fact that he hit with power to all fields, and some of his earliest production was in those rare moments when he gave the Braves a lead. You know, those old school intangibles that don't show up in modern moneyball calculation.
 
rico43 said:
Assuming that many of you actually failed to watch that death march towards October, but I base my optimism on Garcia on the fact that he hit with power to all fields, and some of his earliest production was in those rare moments when he gave the Braves a lead. You know, those old school intangibles that don't show up in modern moneyball calculation.
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But at the same time, he lit it up in September and the old saying goes "Never judge a guy on his April or September." I see him as a solid 350 AB guy who can log time at 3B and OF (maybe some 2B as well) in addition to pinch-hitting. I don't see 15 HRs as outside the realm of possibility, but more likely in the dozen range. He doesn't look like he's going to draw many walks, so he's going to have to hit for a pretty decent average to see the field consistently.
 
He really showed an ability to barrel the ball, and a few of his HR went to CF, so I'm not sure the power was a total fluke. Still, I'm afraid his inability to take a walk will compromise his utility as a full-time guy once pitchers get a book on him. I'm probably more bullish on him than most but he doesn't scream full-time starter to me. Maybe 12-15 HR with the requisite ABs, and his defense might not keep him on the field consistently.
 
I mean, I'm skeptical, but I see literally no reason we shouldn't give him a full season to sink or swim. If we have the ability to acquire a good young third baseman, Garcia shouldn't stop us from doing that, but if one of those isn't hanging around...what the hell, why not? Worst case scenario, he sucks, in which case...what, we're not going to be very good? Heaven forfend.

There's a non-zero chance he ends up a Brooks Conrad type- late inning power, iffy defense at a couple positions, over-qualified to be a bench player but stretched as a starter. There's a much greater chance he proves he's not an MLB player, but, again, we're going to have plenty of those. What do we have to lose?
 
nsacpi said:
His ML numbers were most likely a small sample fluke.
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I have to agree with Julio on this.. his power is not a fluke.. it is not like Murphy hitting a hot streak or a slap hitter pulling 10 balls that barely cleared the fence... he showed sustainable power that will not knock your socks off, but can't be called a fluke.. My worry and is a legitimate worry is his walk rate. that WILL be exposed eventually. couple that with his defense and he will have a bad year. Now if he shows improved patience, he should have an ok year...
 
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