Adonis Garcia--the Hitter

nsacpi

nsacpi

Expects Yuge Games
Let's put aside the fielding for the moment and try to figure out what we're seeing out there as a hitter.

The strikeout rate so far this year is 18.3% in 71 plate appearances, close to the 17.7% we saw last year in 198 plate appearances. In 2014 and 2015 in AAA, the strikeout rate was a little under 13%. So I think this part of Adonis we have a pretty good idea. Over the next year or two he projects to have a strikeout rate in the 17-18% range in the majors.

The walk rate so far this year is 8.5%. This is quite a bit higher than what he showed last year (2.5%) and from what we would expect from his AAA numbers in 2014 and 2015. From the times I've seen him this year, he does appear to have improved his knowledge of the strike zone. I suspect most of the improvement he's shown this year can be sustained. So lets say a 7% walk rate is what we can expect from him going forward.

ISO this year is .063. I think there is more than a hint there that the spike to .220 last year was mostly fluke. Including his AAA data, I'd say we can expect an ISO in the .100-.120 range going forward.

BABIP this year is .370 versus .290 last year. Going forward I think he is a .300-.310 BABIP hitter.

If I am correct about this, it all comes out to a wOBA of about .305 or about 5% below league average.

One last thought. I think if he is willing to accept that he is not a power hitter, he could get the strikeout rate below 15% and become a league average or slightly above average hitter. I know power is sexy and that this Braves team could use a little of it. But I suspect Garcia would be a better hitter if he forgets last year's power surge and comes to view himself as a doubles hitter who might get 5-10 home runs in a full season.
 
He's not a bad hitter at all. If he could improve his walk rate, then the guy would be awesome. I'm sure he'll fetch a lot at the deadline. ;)
 
nsacpi said:
One last thought. I think if he is willing to accept that he is not a power hitter, he could get the strikeout rate below 15% and become a league average or slightly above average hitter. I know power is sexy and that this Braves team could use a little of it. But I suspect Garcia would be a better hitter if he forgets last year's power surge and comes to view himself as a doubles hitter who might get 5-10 home runs in a full season.
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This is the part that's been interesting to me this year with Adonis. I had him figured for a low-OBP slugger, and he's hitting more like a RH version of Markakis. Not sure he can keep it up, but it's been a bright spot to watch him hit this year.
 
Garcia has been good, we've faced some tough teams and good pitchers for most part and he's hit over .300 batting clean-up. I also expect more than 5-10 homers out of him even with the best approach. I expect once we hit the weaker part of our schedule and/or face a few bad pitchers in a row, then Garcia, Freeman and even Markakis will hit some homers. Of course playing in Colorado could do wonders too, lol.
 
I want to talk about Garcia's defense in LF because last year in 10 games with Atlanta he had an assist and 1 DRS. Plus in 37 games in the minors over multiple seasons he had no errors in left field. I watched him play in Gwinnett there about the same amount of games as he did Atlanta and he was good there. Which brings me to Bowman who keeps saying he stinks everywhere using him not doing good at third which he has the least experience. Bowman stated this in his latest piece about Garcia's defense: "The Braves know that they are weakening themselves at whichever position they place Adonis Garcia on the field. But instead of continuing to make Garcia a potential liability at third base on a daily basis, they will soon begin providing him some starts in left field."

To sum it up, I'll grant Garcia is bad at third but how can we say someone who has never made an error in LF in the minors or Majors, who actually had a 1 DRS there, is bad there? Shoot just the season before the Yankees had him playing some CF too and he only made three errors there, but I'd guess his range wasn't up to par and wouldn't suggest playing him there. But his range in left field was good and obviously he has a good arm. It seems crazy to call someone bad at position he's done so well at playing in the minors and even Majors though only in a ten game sample as far as Majors.
 
nsacpi said:
Why not give him a 50 game tryout in left.
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I don't know what they're waiting for, I didn't say anything about him playing third due to Olivera. But ever since Olivera has been out of the picture I'd been looking to put him back in LF. But instead we see infielder Peterson out there? Granted Peterson has been good there but he's going to be pretty much average or better everywhere he plays. IOW, he has that Infante/Prado potential defensively. Bottom line: I believe Peterson at third and Garcia in LF makes a lot more sense.

Correction on my above post: I said Garcia made three errors in CF with the Yankees, it was only one. I think I was looking at his assist numbers there. But that just makes him look better in the OF, not worse. Again, I am not suggesting trying him in CF regardless as I don't think he has enough range for it. LF makes a lot of sense is my argument and I seriously doubt he's bad there, not saying he'll do great. But average defensively would suffice and I expect that from him in LF.
 
Braves1976 said:
I don't know what they're waiting for, I didn't say anything about him playing third due to Olivera. But ever since Olivera has been out of the picture I'd been looking to put him back in LF. But instead we see infielder Peterson out there? Granted Peterson has been good there but he's going to be pretty much average or better everywhere he plays. IOW, he has that Infante/Prado potential defensively. Bottom line: I believe Peterson at third and Garcia in LF makes a lot more sense.

Correction on my above post: I said Garcia made three errors in CF with the Yankees, it was only one. I think I was looking at his assist numbers there. But that just makes him look better in the OF, not worse. Again, I am not suggesting trying him in CF regardless as I don't think he has enough range for it. LF makes a lot of sense is my argument and I seriously doubt he's bad there, not saying he'll do great. But average defensively would suffice and I expect that from him in LF.
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What does Garcia playing LF tell us about Hectors future? Seems to me that if Garcia is moving to LF then the Braves are expecting Hector to miss most of the season.

By the way it makes more sense for Jace to play 3rd. Therefore he won't be playing 3rd
 
JxnMissFan said:
What does Garcia playing LF tell us about Hectors future? Seems to me that if Garcia is moving to LF then the Braves are expecting Hector to miss most of the season.

By the way it makes more sense for Jace to play 3rd. Therefore he won't be playing 3rd
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If you've been following the Olivera thread it all looks but certain they're trying to flip Hector.
 
JxnMissFan said:
What does Garcia playing LF tell us about Hectors future? Seems to me that if Garcia is moving to LF then the Braves are expecting Hector to miss most of the season.

By the way it makes more sense for Jace to play 3rd. Therefore he won't be playing 3rd
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I think Garcia is in LF because the team thinks he's less of a defensive liability there then he is at 3B.
 
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