AJC: Braves Could Go Into Rebuild Mode, Aim Toward 2017

[Jay212033]

Don't rebuild just reload. Here's how we could make that happen.

Trade Justin Upton, Jordan Walden and David Hale to the Cardinals for Carlos Martinez and Jon Jay

Trade Dan Carpenter and Aaron Northcraft to the Tigers for Alex Avila

Trade BJ Upton to the Cubs for Edwin Jackson

Trade Chris Johnson to the Yankees for Jose Ramirez

Sign Hanley Ramirez - 6 yrs/150 mil

Extend Jason Heyward - 8 yrs/160 mil

Lineup:

Jose Peraza/Tommy La Stella - 2B

Jon Jay - CF

Freddie Freeman - 1B

Hanley Ramirez - 3B

Jason Heyward - RF

Evan Gattis - LF

Alex Avila - C

Andrelton Simmons - SS

Bench:

Christian Bethancourt - C

Jose Peraza/Tommy La Stella - 2B

Ramiro Pena - IF

Todd Cunningham - OF

Cedric Hunter - OF

Rotation:

Julio Teheran - RHP

Minor Minor - LHP

Carlos Martinez - RHP

Alex Wood - LHP

Edwin Jackson - RHP

Bullpen:

Jose Ramirez/Juan Jaime - LRP

Anthony Varvaro - MRP

James Russell - MRP

Luis Avilan - LOOGY

Shea Simmons - SUP

Chase Shreve - SUP

Craig Kimbrel - CP

 

[yeezus]

Rebuilding can be hard and lead to prolonged failure. This would be so, so stupid.

 

[jpx7]

If Hart knows (and I think he does) that there is no realistic way to extend either Justin or Heyward, then this team has exactly one more year in 2015 to win anything.

How could he know that when—at least where Heyward is concerned—he reportedly hasn't even initiated extension discussions?

 

[goldfly]

so, we won the division a year ago

have yet another Fredi collapse this year

and we are in rebuild mode for 3 years now?

get the whole front office out of here

 

[Tapate50]

How could he know that when—at least where Heyward is concerned—he reportedly hasn't even initiated extension discussions?

That answer was most likely " We are a year from FA, lets just see how that plays out".

Isn't that pretty logical?

 

[JohnAdcox]

Who rebuilds one of the youngest teams in baseball with talent like Teheran, Heyward, Justin, Gattis, Wood, Kimbrel, Freeman, Simmons, etc etc? What a joke.

First, I agree with you, but the answer to your question is: the team that has gauged the agents of, say, Justin and Jason, heard that the extension thing isn't going to happen, and is getting mind-blowing (i.e. Teixeira or even JD Drew level) offers from other clubs. In that case, assuming (and it's a big assumption) the offers really are mind-blowing, you have to at least ask the question, especially if you're testing the waters so far doesn't suggest you can plug the gaping holes at 3rd and center and in the rotation with the cash and parts you have.

That said, I want to win now. And, well, pretty much all the time. But I can understand why you'd at least ask the question.

 

[jpx7]

That answer was most likely " We are a year from FA, lets just see how that plays out".

Isn't that pretty logical?

Considering I believe it's pretty unlikely the Braves successfully obtain players anywhere near as productive as Heyward and Upton in these supposed trades, I actually don't think it's all that logical. Hart, Schuerholz, and Cox need to do everything the organization can to retain those guys—not just fall back on to Suspenders' favorite old saw: the economics of baseball stink.

 

[Millwood1Hitter]

Considering I believe it's pretty unlikely the Braves successfully obtain players anywhere near as productive as Heyward and Upton in these supposed trades, I actually don't think it's all that logical. Hart, Schuerholz, and Cox need to do everything the organization can to retain those guys—not just fall back on to Suspenders' favorite old saw: the economics of baseball stink.

I wrote this this morning in another thread:



Pretty hard to tweak when again almost 1/3, that's right 1/3 of our projected payroll budget will be tied up in dead weight in Uggla and BJ, and a complimentary player in CJ. It's not an easy fix, and then combine that with the pending FA of Justin Upton and Heyward on the horizon, it makes things really iffy going forward and projecting what we can and can't do.

If one of Heyward or Justin would step up to the plate and sign an extension for slightly below market value, I believe the decesion would be much easier for the FO to decipher in which direction to take and fill the necessary gaps.

But the fact of the matter is, even if we tweak things and fill those needs in the interim, if we we're to lose both Justin and Jason to FA after the season the long term consequences could be devestating, even more so from the perspective that I'm sure the organization wants to make sure that we can a competitive team to put onto the field in 2017, which is not too far away, and even draft picks at that point in time would do no good.

From my perspective, if we aren't gonna be able to move most of BJ's contract (highly unlikely) and one Justin/Heyward don't get an extension done, it may just be easier to get MLB type talent that is ready or close to being ready and contribute in the near short term. Now not one of those players acquired may be of the caliber of either Heyward or Justin, but multiple pieces that are quality slightly above average players to fill multiple needs would be a direction to take, all the while taking the money saved and spending it in FA or acquiring talent shortly thereafter to fill needs may outyield the benefits of keeping those stars. And if that is the case we will still be able to build around some of the untouchables who should still be in their primes and quality players with the likes of Freeman, Simmons, Tehran, Wood, Kimbrel, etc and field a competitive team right about the same time that the new stadium opens.

And that very well may be the case, that we don't acquire ONE player the caliber of Upton or Heyward....but by all accounts then if that is the case, we won the Teixera sweepstakes....but in reality we got raped. The Rangers didn't acquire one player the caliber of TEX, but they did acquire an all-star caliber slick fielding SS, a young high upside arm that became their closer, and a middle of the rotation starter all under control for league minimum for a few seasons that allowed them to spend and fill holes at other areas of need and build a contender.

I'm not disagreeing with you, but it is something to take into consideration. What if we get a haul and say a young controllable pitcher, a quality 3B, and an outfielder for one of them and free up a ton of salary.

 

[AerchAngel]

I wrote this this morning in another thread:

Pretty hard to tweak when again almost 1/3, that's right 1/3 of our projected payroll budget will be tied up in dead weight in Uggla and BJ, and a complimentary player in CJ. It's not an easy fix, and then combine that with the pending FA of Justin Upton and Heyward on the horizon, it makes things really iffy going forward and projecting what we can and can't do.

If one of Heyward or Justin would step up to the plate and sign an extension for slightly below market value, I believe the decesion would be much easier for the FO to decipher in which direction to take and fill the necessary gaps.

But the fact of the matter is, even if we tweak things and fill those needs in the interim, if we we're to lose both Justin and Jason to FA after the season the long term consequences could be devestating, even more so from the perspective that I'm sure the organization wants to make sure that we can a competitive team to put onto the field in 2017, which is not too far away, and even draft picks at that point in time would do no good.

From my perspective, if we aren't gonna be able to move most of BJ's contract (highly unlikely) and one Justin/Heyward don't get an extension done, it may just be easier to get MLB type talent that is ready or close to being ready and contribute in the near short term. Now not one of those players acquired may be of the caliber of either Heyward or Justin, but multiple pieces that are quality slightly above average players to fill multiple needs would be a direction to take, all the while taking the money saved and spending it in FA or acquiring talent shortly thereafter to fill needs may outyield the benefits of keeping those stars. And if that is the case we will still be able to build around some of the untouchables who should still be in their primes and quality players with the likes of Freeman, Simmons, Tehran, Wood, Kimbrel, etc and field a competitive team right about the same time that the new stadium opens.

And that very well may be the case, that we don't acquire ONE player the caliber of Upton or Heyward....but by all accounts then if that is the case, we won the Teixera sweepstakes....but in reality we got raped. The Rangers didn't acquire one player the caliber of TEX, but they did acquire an all-star caliber slick fielding SS, a young high upside arm that became their closer, and a middle of the rotation starter all under control for league minimum for a few seasons that allowed them to spend and fill holes at other areas of need and build a contender.

I'm not disagreeing with you, but it is something to take into consideration. What if we get a haul and say a young controllable pitcher, a quality 3B, and an outfielder for one of them and free up a ton of salary.

Thanks, now we have to relive that nightmare and the JD "China doll" Drew trade to a lesser extent.

 

[jpx7]

I'm not disagreeing with you, but it is something to take into consideration. What if we get a haul and say a young controllable pitcher, a quality 3B, and an outfielder for one of them and free up a ton of salary.

I think trading one of Gattis, Heyward, or Upton makes some sense; I'd advocate for Gattis, because he'd play better in the AL, the Braves have an internal replacement, his key value (power) is the clearest dearth around the big leagues, and his being under control for the next four seasons make his bringing back a legitimate "haul" much more likely than the single-year contracts of Upton and Heyward. Naturally, Gattis is the one Hart claims he's keeping (to play out-of-position, no less)—but maybe this is all just posturing to leverage the best possible deal for Gattis from another team.

But what I'm criticizing is this notion of trading the best two of those three players—Upton and Heyward—and expecting that the players acquired for them somehow produce, in whatever volume and combination, as much or more by 2017. I just don't think that's as likely—nor as smart—as is being suggested.

 

[Millwood1Hitter]

I think trading one of Gattis, Heyward, or Upton makes some sense; I'd advocate for Gattis, because he'd play better in the AL, the Braves have an internal replacement, his key value (power) is the clearest dearth around the big leagues, and his being under control for the next four seasons make his bringing back a legitimate "haul" much more likely than the single-year contracts of Upton and Heyward. Naturally, Gattis is the one Hart claims he's keeping (to play out-of-position, no less)—but maybe this is all just posturing to leverage he best possible deal for Gattis from another team.

But what I'm criticizing is this notion of trading the best two of those three players—Upton and Heyward—and expecting that the players acquired for them somehow produce, in whatever volume and combination, as much or more by 2017. I just don't think that's as likely—nor as smart—as is being suggested.

But if the feeling is that going forward, we will not be able to reach an agreement with Upton or Heyward long-term, and lose both to FA after the season it could be disastrous going forward to when we have to aim to be and field a competitive team when the new stadium opens. That right then and there could set this organization back a decade.

 

[thewupk]

If you could tell me that the Braves would sign an impact bat via FA going into 2017 then I wouldn't be against trading either Heyward or Upton or even both to improve our weak spots and stock up on the farm. But the Braves track record for that isn't very good. I'm trying to think of big time bats the team has gotten and the only one I can think of is the Big Cat. Every other one is via trade and the times they have tried it's been a bust (BJ). Maybe Hart is better at that then Wren.

 

[thewupk]

But if the feeling is that going forward, we will not be able to reach an agreement with Upton or Heyward long-term, and lose both to FA after the season it could be disastrous going forward to when we have to aim to be and field a competitive team when the new stadium opens. That right then and there could set this organization back a decade.

I think the worst thing to do is keep both guys and not go for it this year. Either they should keep the core and do their best to make to fix what is currently wrong with the team and go for it or trade them to get the most you can for them and aim for 2017. I think Hart understands this. Hopefully it pans out.

 

[AerchAngel]

so, we won the division a year ago

have yet another Fredi collapse this year

and we are in rebuild mode for 3 years now?

get the whole front office out of here

That is too easy. It isn't the manager or coaches fault, it is the players.

 

[AerchAngel]

I think trading one of Gattis, Heyward, or Upton makes some sense; I'd advocate for Gattis, because he'd play better in the AL, the Braves have an internal replacement, his key value (power) is the clearest dearth around the big leagues, and his being under control for the next four seasons make his bringing back a legitimate "haul" much more likely than the single-year contracts of Upton and Heyward. Naturally, Gattis is the one Hart claims he's keeping (to play out-of-position, no less)—but maybe this is all just posturing to leverage he best possible deal for Gattis from another team.

But what I'm criticizing is this notion of trading the best two of those three players—Upton and Heyward—and expecting that the players acquired for them somehow produce, in whatever volume and combination, as much or more by 2017. I just don't think that's as likely—nor as smart—as is being suggested.

If it means BJ is going with him, I am all for it, if not, keep him, he is CHEAP. J-Hey and J-UP isn't. They can keep both if Gattis goes with BJ and hope Cock Jock (CJ) is shipped with them.

 

[Heyward]

I can see it both ways.

I can understand trading Gattis, bad back, power hitter (under control for 4 years, etc)

Big value to AL teams.

BUT, if we're trading Heyward/JUp just to make a trade then its stupid.

And if we're gonna "rebuild", we have to trade Kimbrel too, he has ZERO value on a team rebuilding.

If they bring in a haul then i guess i'd be for it.

We'll see but i have a bad feeling about this.

Like i said, not even trying to extend at least one of them is stupid, sure they could say no but maybe they'd accept if the money is right.

 

[Dalyn]

First, I agree with you, but the answer to your question is: the team that has gauged the agents of, say, Justin and Jason, heard that the extension thing isn't going to happen, and is getting mind-blowing (i.e. Teixeira or even JD Drew level) offers from other clubs. In that case, assuming (and it's a big assumption) the offers really are mind-blowing, you have to at least ask the question, especially if you're testing the waters so far doesn't suggest you can plug the gaping holes at 3rd and center and in the rotation with the cash and parts you have.

That said, I want to win now. And, well, pretty much all the time. But I can understand why you'd at least ask the question.

I agree in regards to Justin and Jason. But the other guys are already signed long term and even if you unload Justin AND Jason you have enough quality players to field a competitive team (not to mention the riches received from trading those two). No need to rebuild. It makes no sense.

 

[Enscheff]

I think the worst thing to do is keep both guys and not go for it this year. Either they should keep the core and do their best to make to fix what is currently wrong with the team and go for it or trade them to get the most you can for them and aim for 2017. I think Hart understands this. Hopefully it pans out.

This is exactly right. In order to seriously compete next year, this team needs to acquire an OFer with a .340+ OBP to replace BJ, acquire a LHed hitter to platoon with CJ at 3B, and acquire at least 1 legit middle of the rotation SP that can throw ~200 innings of ~3.5 FIP quality. And that is assuming nobody from the MLB roster is lost.

That is a lot to acquire when your team has no money and very few prospects to trade.

I would argue this team can not truly compete if any of Gattis, Heyward or JUp are traded, so if one is moved they all may as well all be moved.

If the team can't fix all the problems listed above without touching the MLB roster then they can't realistically compete in 2015, so may as well look towards 2017.

 

[jpx7]

And if we're gonna "rebuild", we have to trade Kimbrel too, he has ZERO value on a team rebuilding.

Agreed. I'm not seeing what Dalyn is seeing: if this team trades both Heyward and Upton this off-season, I don't envision them realistically competing for either of the NL Wild Cards in 2015, and I'd be skeptical regarding 2016 (and even 2017) as well. They're just very unlikely to receive players that good, and that ready to contribute—even in a "sum is a greater than a single player" sense—for two players, however phenomenal (and both Upton and Heyward are fairly phenomenal players at this moment) that are a year away from free-agency. The very fact that scares the Braves from keeping them for 2015 will scare other teams in acquiring them, and that mitigates the strength of the return, which undermines the intelligence and value of trading them in the first place. Maybe one of them goes in a strategic transaction that bolsters the team immediately, and thus more than compensates for the lost production in one area by enhancing several others; but that scenario playing out in the case of both is much less likely, in my estimation.

Which leads back to this point: if they want to punt on the next few years, don't half-ass it. Trade Kimbrel and Gattis, too, and anyone whose age and/or contract doesn't make sense on the roster of a team in a two-to-three-year rebuild—which means guys like Walden and Carpenter, and maybe even Minor mid-season if he rebounds.

 

[Tapate50]

Considering I believe it's pretty unlikely the Braves successfully obtain players anywhere near as productive as Heyward and Upton in these supposed trades, I actually don't think it's all that logical. Hart, Schuerholz, and Cox need to do everything the organization can to retain those guys—not just fall back on to Suspenders' favorite old saw: the economics of baseball stink.

So you assume they have a choice? They can't force anyone to sign anything?

I guess I'm not seeing where this is so one sided as you. Could entirely be my poor reading comp bc today has been a bear.