Albies

BeanieAntics said:
I lol'd... Anyway, back to Albies. I'm usually pretty conservative with my expectations of prospects, but damn he has looked good. Kind of a weird side note: I've seen bWAR and fWAR come to different conclusions about players, but they are way apart on Albies. .7 bWAR and a 1.4 fWAR. Thought it was kind of odd
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there has been a convergence. bWAR now 1.3 and fWAR 1.6

let's call it 1.5 in a third of a season

doesn't imply that 4.5 is likely next year, but pretty impressive
 
nsacpi said:
there has been a convergence. bWAR now 1.3 and fWAR 1.6

let's call it 1.5 in a third of a season

doesn't imply that 4.5 is likely next year, but pretty impressive
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Sometimes it takes awhile for certain defensive numbers to catch up. At one point UZR had Albies as +3 runs while DRS had him at 0 runs. That's pretty significant in such a low amount of games. Now it's +3 for UZR and +2 for DRS.

Albies looks like the real deal defensively. Real deal defenders up the middle can be WAR machines with even a little bit of offense.
 
thethe said:
Can we all just agree the braves should sign him to a 10 year mega deal?
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yes. 10/100 right now like I said before. 10 million every year. Spend the money on him and not some washed up starter. He still gets to be a free agent at 30.
 
Southcack77 said:
I can tell you that I would in his shoes.

I think it would actually be dumb to offer it.
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$10 million in 5-6 years is going to be worth very little in regard to MLB contracts. He will make $10 million/year before he even hits FA, and his FA deal will easily surpass that total. Why would he take it?

You can say you would take it, but the bottom line is, you're not a 20-year-old baseball phenom with a real chance to make quite a bit more than that over the next 10 years. That's where Albies is. It's easy for fans to say, 'It's guaranteed money, why not take it?' Well, because the odds of him making a lot more than that over that span are pretty good.

You realize that if he just turns into a 2 WAR player, that would still be a huge steal for his age 27-30 years? And that would be if he is kind of a bust of sorts.
 
This is what Ender signed for after a 3.7 win season. He would have hit free agency after 2020.

Ender Inciarte cf
5 years/$30.525M (2017-21), plus 2022 option

5 years/$30.525M (2017-21), plus 2022 club option
signed extension with Atlanta 12/23/16 (avoided arbitration)
$3.5M signing bonus
17:$2M, 18:$4M, 19:$5M, 20:$7M, 21:$8M, 22:$9M club option ($1.025M buyout)
 
nsacpi said:
This is what Ender signed for after a 3 win season. He would have hit free agency after 2020.

Ender Inciarte cf
5 years/$30.525M (2017-21), plus 2022 option

5 years/$30.525M (2017-21), plus 2022 club option
signed extension with Atlanta 12/23/16 (avoided arbitration)
$3.5M signing bonus
17:$2M, 18:$4M, 19:$5M, 20:$7M, 21:$8M, 22:$9M club option ($1.025M buyout)
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Ender signed away seasons that don't tend to pay well in arbitration. Albies is going to have a lot more of his value wrapped up in offensive numbers that will pay better in arbitration.

As I wrote here: http://www.chopcountry.com/forums/showthread.php?t=7384

an Albies extension signed this offseason probably looks like...

Offer him 6/25 (which includes a $2M signing bonus) with 1-3 option years valued at $15M each tacked on at the end, each with a $5M buyout. That guarantees Albies $30M, gets him some cash up front he never got when he signed, and allows him to still become a FA before his age 30 season (how young he is depending on how many options the Braves get him to agree to).

If they wait until next offseason the cost goes up.
 
smootness said:
$10 million in 5-6 years is going to be worth very little in regard to MLB contracts. He will make $10 million/year before he even hits FA, and his FA deal will easily surpass that total. Why would he take it?

You can say you would take it, but the bottom line is, you're not a 20-year-old baseball phenom with a real chance to make quite a bit more than that over the next 10 years. That's where Albies is. It's easy for fans to say, 'It's guaranteed money, why not take it?' Well, because the odds of him making a lot more than that over that span are pretty good.

You realize that if he just turns into a 2 WAR player, that would still be a huge steal for his age 27-30 years? And that would be if he is kind of a bust of sorts.
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He's a 20 year from an impoverished country that didn't get much money to sign and has less than half a season of major league experience.

The braves have no obligation to pay him anything and it's entirely possible thatthey might suddenly discover he can't hit a slider.

There is no need for them to take on risk or immediate payroll for a player that is years away from arbitration.

I think it would be dumb.
 
Southcack77 said:
He's a 20 year from an impoverished country that didn't get much money to sign and has less than half a season of major league experience.

The braves have no obligation to pay him anything and it's entirely possible thatthey might suddenly discover he can't hit a slider.

There is no need for them to take on risk or immediate payroll for a player that is years away from arbitration.

I think it would be dumb.
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Did I say the Braves had an obligation to pay him or that they would?

I just said I doubt he takes that offer. I might or might not if I were in his shoes, but I think he will end up making significantly more than that.
 
smootness said:
Did I say the Braves had an obligation to pay him or that they would?

I just said I doubt he takes that offer. I might or might not if I were in his shoes, but I think he will end up making significantly more than that.
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What Enscheff posted is probably right. Maybe a little more money. And I'd do that deal. I LOVE team options. Don't care if you go out to his age 35 season with a 30 million team option. Options give us control but keep us off the hook.

My offer is more of a thought exercise. These things always escalate. Right now the Braves have some money to spend (IMO) and nobody worth spending it on (IMO). I think 5 years from now we will have young guys we want to keep and the money will be tighter. So I would pay more now to avoid having to pay it later.

As far as 10/100....I'd put that fat 100 million in front of a guy that signed for 100K and make him turn it down. Yes he could be a 4 win player and that would be peanuts, that's the only reason we would consider guaranteeing that much money. But right now he's 20 and getting 500K. He's on a slow escalation. That's a lot of money for most people but if he wants to really live it up while he's young, single and famous then 10 million vs 500K now might make a lot of sense. 10 year deal still gets him out at 30. He's still as small speed guy. Speed is the first thing that goes with age and injury. He's not a power guy and that is still what arbitration rewards.

I say the same thing with Dansby. If I'm him I want my 10 million now as I court models and actresses. If I hit then I'll be underpaid. If I'm underpaid the fans will love me. IF I'm a successful athlete, loved by my fans, and a good looking white boy I will make so much money off the field that I really don't care. If I suck I have 100 million dollars. Sign me up.
 
smootness said:
Did I say the Braves had an obligation to pay him or that they would?

Jose Altuve is going to make about 25 million dollars, I think, in his first six years as a professional assuming nothing changes before free agency.
Ozzie Albies would make 50 million dollars over the same time frame in this hypothetical.

While Altuve certainly might do better than 5/75 million on his next deal, Jose Altuve is Jose Altuve. And maybe he doesn't.

I don't know Albies story. Maybe he is independently wealthy. But maybe his family's net worth is whatever he has left over from whatever portion of the signing bonus actually went to him. If he comes from poverty, singing a 100 million dollar guaranteed contract that will leave you a free agent at 30 would be in my view something you have to consider very strongly. Particularly when he hasn't yet proved himself to be an all star any more than Dansby Swanson proved himself one last summer.

I'm guessing that an agent would not let him sign that long of a deal, though I'm sure he'd rush to guarantee some pre-arb dollars. The contract isn't realistic most probably.

But in this particular situation I think it would be a entirely sensible thing to do to sign the deal if you are the player and crazy to offer that deal if you are the team.
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10/100 is interesting as a thought experiment. It isn't anything that's even remotely plausible though.

Albies will not sign an extension that locks him up past his age 29 season. The Braves are not going to give $100M to a 20 year old with a couple months of MLB PAs.

The most probable extension revolves around the Braves making Albies filthy rich by assuming the risk of guaranteeing his arbitration years in exchange for 1-3 FA option years at a fairly significant discount, while still allowing him to reach FA before he turns 30 so he can shoot for a 9 figure contract that sets up his family for the rest of time.

$30M for an MLB team is a lot less important than $30M for a guy that isn't already rich...which is why these extensions ever happen at all.
 
Southcack77 said:
He's a 20 year from an impoverished country that didn't get much money to sign and has less than half a season of major league experience.

The braves have no obligation to pay him anything and it's entirely possible thatthey might suddenly discover he can't hit a slider.

There is no need for them to take on risk or immediate payroll for a player that is years away from arbitration.

I think it would be dumb.
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Except the possible benefit of locking him up for a few years beyond arbitration at a bargain price. That could be hugely beneficial. Is there risk in extending a player so young and inexperienced? Of course there is. But that is where your internal scouting comes in. If you really believe in Ozzie, I think you do everything you can to lock him up long term for as cheaply as possible. Enscheff's deal looks really good to me
 
Southcack77 said:
Jose Altuve is going to make about 25 million dollars, I think, in his first six years as a professional assuming nothing changes before free agency.
Ozzie Albies would make 50 million dollars over the same time frame in this hypothetical.

While Altuve certainly might do better than 5/75 million on his next deal, Jose Altuve is Jose Altuve. And maybe he doesn't.

I don't know Albies story. Maybe he is independently wealthy. But maybe his family's net worth is whatever he has left over from whatever portion of the signing bonus actually went to him. If he comes from poverty, singing a 100 million dollar guaranteed contract that will leave you a free agent at 30 would be in my view something you have to consider very strongly. Particularly when he hasn't yet proved himself to be an all star any more than Dansby Swanson proved himself one last summer.

I'm guessing that an agent would not let him sign that long of a deal, though I'm sure he'd rush to guarantee some pre-arb dollars. The contract isn't realistic most probably.

But in this particular situation I think it would be a entirely sensible thing to do to sign the deal if you are the player and crazy to offer that deal if you are the team.
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He is going to completely blow that out of the water. And he signed an extension in 2013.

Eduardo Nunez isn't anything close to what Albies will likely be, and he got $4.4 million in his last arbitration season. Didi Gregorius, who is only now roughly as valuable as Albies could be immediately, got over $5 million in the 2nd of 4 arbitration years for him. Consider that by the time Albies hits arbitration, it'll be 3 more years down the road with a further increase in the market, and he likely will have shown sustained value already, and I could pretty easily see him getting something like $6-7 million in his first year of arbitration, with it increasing to 10+ by the time he hits FA. So if he's looking at this intelligently, he'd only be making more money in the first 4-5 years and only significantly more in the first 3, and he'd be making way, way less in the final 4 and could push himself into the territory in which he starts to decline. A guy like him at 30 isn't getting near what he would if he hit the FA market at 26.

I just don't think the guarantee would be enough to get him to sign it. I probably wouldn't if I were him.
 
Southcack77 said:
smootness said:
Did I say the Braves had an obligation to pay him or that they would?

Jose Altuve is going to make about 25 million dollars, I think, in his first six years as a professional assuming nothing changes before free agency.
Ozzie Albies would make 50 million dollars over the same time frame in this hypothetical.

While Altuve certainly might do better than 5/75 million on his next deal, Jose Altuve is Jose Altuve. And maybe he doesn't.

I don't know Albies story. Maybe he is independently wealthy. But maybe his family's net worth is whatever he has left over from whatever portion of the signing bonus actually went to him. If he comes from poverty, singing a 100 million dollar guaranteed contract that will leave you a free agent at 30 would be in my view something you have to consider very strongly. Particularly when he hasn't yet proved himself to be an all star any more than Dansby Swanson proved himself one last summer.

I'm guessing that an agent would not let him sign that long of a deal, though I'm sure he'd rush to guarantee some pre-arb dollars. The contract isn't realistic most probably.

But in this particular situation I think it would be a entirely sensible thing to do to sign the deal if you are the player and crazy to offer that deal if you are the team.
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See, this is precisely what I mean when I say folks have no clue how these contracts will be valued.

Altuve will make about 4x that 5/75 contract you mentioned.

Altuve's deal starts at Cano's 10/240 and goes up from there based on inflation. Altuve will be a year younger than Cano was, and will have posted even more WAR by then.

Altuve will sign for almost $300M in his next contract. Anyone saying something as silly as 5/75 for Altuve (even hypothetically) has zero clue how to value players, and is probably also equally mistaken when valuing Albies.
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