Alex Wood...

50PoundHead said:
There was a logic to the deal, but just because something is logical doesn't make it good. I think it was Kant (and I paraphrase) who said something like "the insane man argues logically from an erroneous premise." Braves thought Olivera would be a productive RH bat which they needed to take the next step. They were dead wrong, but a lot of baseball was wrong when they were wooing Olivera and tempting him with one of those giant Publishers Clearinghouse checks. And when the return hinges on one guy with no back-up in the deal (unless one considers the draft choice the back-up), the downside can be severe and rapid. Moral of the story is you don't roll the dice on guys like Olivera. There were too many question marks.
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If we had gotten Olivera for a couple B level prospects, it wouldn't be as big of a deal. The issue is that we gave up a pretty well regarded prospect in Peraza and a terrific young lefty in Wood for a guy with no history of success in the majors, who is on the wrong side of 30, and who hadn't really played much in the last few years. The thing that made no sense was spending so much.

But here's the real thing that I can't get past. After watching Olivera for just a couple games I got the distinct impression that he was a marginal major leaguer who wouldn't even be able to maintain that as his skills were eroding. His bat was slow and getting slower. He couldn't catch up to fastballs if he waited and if he guessed and started his swing early he was susceptible to off speed. Then there was the fact that it was painfully obvious he couldn't handle third.

So I wonder that if this was clear to me after watching him for just a few games, how is it that our scouts missed it? The only answer I can think of is that the reports we were using were written from watching old tape of him in Cuba and putting too much stock in his one day showcase. I would be surprised if we actually scouted Olivera when he was playing in the Dodger's minor leagues.
 
striker42 said:
If we had gotten Olivera for a couple B level prospects, it wouldn't be as big of a deal. The issue is that we gave up a pretty well regarded prospect in Peraza and a terrific young lefty in Wood for a guy with no history of success in the majors, who is on the wrong side of 30, and who hadn't really played much in the last few years. The thing that made no sense was spending so much.

But here's the real thing that I can't get past. After watching Olivera for just a couple games I got the distinct impression that he was a marginal major leaguer who wouldn't even be able to maintain that as his skills were eroding. His bat was slow and getting slower. He couldn't catch up to fastballs if he waited and if he guessed and started his swing early he was susceptible to off speed. Then there was the fact that it was painfully obvious he couldn't handle third.

So I wonder that if this was clear to me after watching him for just a few games, how is it that our scouts missed it? The only answer I can think of is that the reports we were using were written from watching old tape of him in Cuba and putting too much stock in his one day showcase. I would be surprised if we actually scouted Olivera when he was playing in the Dodger's minor leagues.
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You've got it in a nutshell. My only point is that the deal was logical but the premise was woefully off-base. I think Coppolella and company just got too antsy and likely bid against themselves in procuring Olivera. I doubt there was any huge market for him. My guess is he had been scouted extensively, but the minors and the majors are in two different galaxies. Olivera looks the part--big, strong, muscular without being over-muscled--and that can be bait for a lot of scouts.

To me, the moral of the story is to simply stay away from Cuban refugees over the age of 25.
 
Pointing out the Braves' logic behind the move is not the same as saying it was sound logic.

The Braves thought they could compete in 2017, and they thought Olivera would help them do that.

The Braves were wrong...about both premises. They were literally the only ones who thought they could compete by 2017.

The most damning mistake was the fact that he couldn't play 3B and the Braves had no clue until after the trade and saw him in person for a few days. That tells me they didn't scout him after he came to the states, and traded for him anyways. That mistake is inexcusable because it was simply a failure of due diligence.
 
striker42 said:
If we had gotten Olivera for a couple B level prospects, it wouldn't be as big of a deal. The issue is that we gave up a pretty well regarded prospect in Peraza and a terrific young lefty in Wood for a guy with no history of success in the majors, who is on the wrong side of 30, and who hadn't really played much in the last few years. The thing that made no sense was spending so much.

But here's the real thing that I can't get past. After watching Olivera for just a couple games I got the distinct impression that he was a marginal major leaguer who wouldn't even be able to maintain that as his skills were eroding. His bat was slow and getting slower. He couldn't catch up to fastballs if he waited and if he guessed and started his swing early he was susceptible to off speed. Then there was the fact that it was painfully obvious he couldn't handle third.

So I wonder that if this was clear to me after watching him for just a few games, how is it that our scouts missed it? The only answer I can think of is that the reports we were using were written from watching old tape of him in Cuba and putting too much stock in his one day showcase. I would be surprised if we actually scouted Olivera when he was playing in the Dodger's minor leagues.
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Exactly. As I stated before reading your post, this is the most damning mistake in the whole debacle, in my opinion.
 
The trade was just a terrible judge of talent on the Braves part. I don't know who the primary scout on HO was, but they did a piss poor job of evaluating him. To be fair, he could have been a decent bat. He hit ok enough in 2015 that you could may be see him being a decent enough hitter to make the trade somewhat palatable. But the character concerns should have been easy to pick up on. May be you can't forsee domestic abuse, but there were red flags about his character even with the Dodgers. You can't tell me any scout worth a damn couldn't have picked up on that if he spent a good amount of time scouting him in person.
 
Enscheff said:
Haha, I've suggested the same thing a few times.

I bet Dodgers fans want to deal with the Braves as much as possible!
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I mean honestly; which team had the worst outcome? The Braves aftermath of the HO deal or the DBacks with the Shelby Miller deal?

Both were horrific deals, but at the DBacks were actually trying to win at the time and needed another pitcher, and of course Shelby Miller didn't punch any women.
 
Preacher said:
I mean honestly; which team had the worst outcome? The Braves aftermath of the HO deal or the DBacks with the Shelby Miller deal?

Both were horrific deals, but at the DBacks were actually trying to win at the time and needed another pitcher, and of course Shelby Miller didn't punch any women.
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Nope. He just decided to throw like one.
 
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