Allard's Stuff

striker42

striker42

Well-known member
I'll admit I'm not familiar with the sites that post the statcast data or really have any context for the data if I were to have it. So those of you with more knowledge and experience in that area, what did statcast say about Allard's stuff last night?

Specifically, I want to know what kind of movement his fastball had. Unless he adds velocity, the only way I can see him succeeding with an 89-90 MPH fastball is if it has plus movement.
 
striker42 said:
I'll admit I'm not familiar with the sites that post the statcast data or really have any context for the data if I were to have it. So those of you with more knowledge and experience in that area, what did statcast say about Allard's stuff last night?

Specifically, I want to know what kind of movement his fastball had. Unless he adds velocity, the only way I can see him succeeding with an 89-90 MPH fastball is if it has plus movement.
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The data will be interesting.
I don’t know if it was first game nerves or the weather conditions but everything about him looked shaky last night. He didn’t look ready to be in the show. Hopefully the FO and coaching staff have seen something in him we didn’t see last night.

Thinking back about the times I saw him pitch in MS I think he can be somewhat better than what he showed last night. The best case would be for Allard to have some success this season and then package him in a trade this winter.
 
Allard Statcast Results

Those are his pitch-by-pitch results. I don't really know exactly what I'm looking at for each of these pitches, and I don't know how to find movement or compile average/aggregate data on them, but a couple things I think are true based on what I know:

- Not good FF velocity, as we know; between 88-90 basically, some a tick higher than 90
- Not good CU spin rate, which is a bad sign; RPM's in the 1400-1500 range are not good
- Good SL velocity, which is interesting, he throws that essentially as hard as he throws his fastball
- The spin rate on his FF and SL are better than his CU but still below average
- The velocity delta between his FF and CH is pretty good, about 10 mph

With low velocity on his fastball and below-average spin rates on all of his pitches, it looks like unless he just had a rough night or really improves, he's basically never going to be anything without the best command anybody's ever had. I would guess he has an average-ish slider, an average-ish changeup, a well below-average fastball, and a below-average curve.
 
smootness said:
Allard Statcast Results

Those are his pitch-by-pitch results. I don't really know exactly what I'm looking at for each of these pitches, and I don't know how to find movement or compile average/aggregate data on them, but a couple things I think are true based on what I know:

- Not good FF velocity, as we know; between 88-90 basically, some a tick higher than 90
- Not good CU spin rate, which is a bad sign; RPM's in the 1400-1500 range are not good
- Good SL velocity, which is interesting, he throws that essentially as hard as he throws his fastball
- The spin rate on his FF and SL are better than his CU but still below average
- The velocity delta between his FF and CH is pretty good, about 10 mph

With low velocity on his fastball and below-average spin rates on all of his pitches, it looks like unless he just had a rough night or really improves, he's basically never going to be anything without the best command anybody's ever had. I would guess he has an average-ish slider, an average-ish changeup, a well below-average fastball, and a below-average curve.
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Thought the curve was the pitch he was drafted for
 
Hard to judge on a wet, late night. In saying that....no matter what....he’s a 20 year old that’s reached the majors and that’s impressive.

He has been my very first of the big name pitchers I would trade. I’ve never been too big on him. I “do” believe he will make it in the big leagues as a #4-#5 type guy.
 
Obviously last night was one data point. If he'd been throwing 95 with crazy spin rates we'd still need more data points to tell if it was an outlier or not.

I'm willing to hold out hope that last night was a bad night for spin rates, especially considering the conditions. Scouting reports have generally said good things about his curve and we didn't see a good curve last night.

He'll get more starts eventually so we'll get more data.
 
striker42 said:
Obviously last night was one data point. If he'd been throwing 95 with crazy spin rates we'd still need more data points to tell if it was an outlier or not.

I'm willing to hold out hope that last night was a bad night for spin rates, especially considering the conditions. Scouting reports have generally said good things about his curve and we didn't see a good curve last night.

He'll get more starts eventually so we'll get more data.
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Someone with more motivation than me could look at spin rate for straily last night, and compare that rate to normal levels. Obviously this wouldn't prove anything, but would maybe give credit or discredit weather effect theory
 
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msstate7 said:
Someone with more motivation than me could look at spin rate for straily last night, and compare that rate to normal levels. Obviously this wouldn't prove anything, but would maybe give credit or discredit weather effect theory
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A very quick look seemed to show them about where they normally are - 2,300ish for his fastball, 2,500ish for his slider.
 
A legitimate question I honestly don't know the answer to. Can overthrowing a pitch reduce the spin rate? I know you can see pitches lose movement when the pitcher is overthrowing them.
 
I'll leave some of it up to interpretation for people better, but the Brooks Player Card description...

His fourseam fastball is basically never swung at and missed compared to other pitchers' fourseamers, results in somewhat more groundballs compared to other pitchers' fourseamers, has slightly below average velo and has slightly less natural movement than typical. His change (take this with a grain of salt because he's only thrown 18 of them in 2018) is basically never swung at and missed compared to other pitchers' changeups and has slightly below average velo. His curve (take this with a grain of salt because he's only thrown 9 of them in 2018) is basically never swung at and missed compared to other pitchers' curves, is an extreme flyball pitch compared to other pitchers' curves, has primarily 12-6 movement and has slightly below average velo.

Yeah, not good folks.

4-seamer movement: HMov (in): 4.8 VMov (in): 8.93 H. Rel (ft): 1.64 V. Rel (ft): 5.66
Changeup movement: HMov (in): 6.97 VMov (in): 5.4 H. Rel (ft): 1.67 V. Rel (ft): 5.79
Curveball movement: HMov (in): -2.47 VMov (in): -3.94 H. Rel (ft): 1.38 V. Rel (ft): 5.82

I'll leave that up to interpretation from a smarter person, but the only pitch you can definitely say may be affected by weather was the curve, and it stopped raining after a couple innings.
 
striker42 said:
A legitimate question I honestly don't know the answer to. Can overthrowing a pitch reduce the spin rate? I know you can see pitches lose movement when the pitcher is overthrowing them.
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If this seemed strange, I might be searching for some kind of explanation. But Allard's K numbers have dropped since reaching the top levels of the minors; we thought it was just velocity, but it looks like it may just be that he doesn't have good stuff. Without a big improvement in stuff, he will need impeccable command/control to be effective enough to stay in a major league rotation.
 
smootness said:
Allard Statcast Results

Those are his pitch-by-pitch results. I don't really know exactly what I'm looking at for each of these pitches, and I don't know how to find movement or compile average/aggregate data on them, but a couple things I think are true based on what I know:

- Not good FF velocity, as we know; between 88-90 basically, some a tick higher than 90
- Not good CU spin rate, which is a bad sign; RPM's in the 1400-1500 range are not good
- Good SL velocity, which is interesting, he throws that essentially as hard as he throws his fastball
- The spin rate on his FF and SL are better than his CU but still below average
- The velocity delta between his FF and CH is pretty good, about 10 mph

With low velocity on his fastball and below-average spin rates on all of his pitches, it looks like unless he just had a rough night or really improves, he's basically never going to be anything without the best command anybody's ever had. I would guess he has an average-ish slider, an average-ish changeup, a well below-average fastball, and a below-average curve.
Click to expand...

I struggle to put meaning on the numbers.

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB...7_31_miamlb_atlmlb_1/&prevDate=731&league=mlb
 
FA: 89.4 mph (Grade 36.0), 4.3" HMov (Grade 45.2), 7.7" VMov (Grade 38.2)

This is an unusable FA. Slow, straight. Simply not a MLB quality pitch without Grade 80 command.

CU: 73.4 mph (Grade 31.5), 2.9" HMov (Grade 62.3), -5.1" VMov (Grade 53.7)

The curve is a slow bender that looked legit on TV, and the data shows that it is in fact legit. This is a 55.

CH: 9.1 mph delta (Grade 56.6), 6.5" HMov (Grade 41.5), 4.2" VMov (Grade 52.9)

This change is a 50, and definitely usable at the MLB level.

So we are looking at a 35 FA, 55 CU and 50 CH. A junk baller at the age of 21.

Will the velocity tick up 2-3 MPH? Even if it does, it's still a horridly straight pitch, but at least it would be usable.

It was rainy. It was his first start. I know all the excuses that will be tossed around by the Allard fans. The fact is that poor FA and mediocre off speed stuff limits his upside to a #5 or AAAA guy, and it is clear why he plummeted down the prospect lists despite good results. I was really hoping to see a slow FA with tons of movement that made it play way up, or a truly knock out curve that he could rely on, but that isn't the case.
 
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smootness said:
If this seemed strange, I might be searching for some kind of explanation. But Allard's K numbers have dropped since reaching the top levels of the minors; we thought it was just velocity, but it looks like it may just be that he doesn't have good stuff. Without a big improvement in stuff, he will need impeccable command/control to be effective enough to stay in a major league rotation.
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I don't think it is going to work out.

But seems like there ought to be something there that usually plays better. I don't think you can survive in even the high minors without something that is hard to hit.

Too bad you can't get the minor league data to compare his pitch movement and location.
 
Enscheff said:
FA: 89.4 mph (Grade 36.0), 4.3" HMov (Grade 45.2), 7.7" VMov (Grade 38.2)

This is an unusable FA. Slow, straight. Simply not a MLB quality pitch without Grade 80 command.

CU: 73.4 mph (Grade 31.5), 2.9" HMov (Grade 62.3), -5.1" VMov (Grade 53.7)

The curve is a slow bender that looked legit on TV, and the data shows that it is in fact legit. This is a 55.

CH: 9.1 mph delta (Grade 56.6), 6.5" HMov (Grade 41.5), 4.2" VMov (Grade 52.9)

This change is a 50, and definitely usable at the MLB level.

So we are looking at a 35 FA, 55 CU and 50 CH. A junk baller at the age of 21.

Will the velocity tick up 2-3 MPH? Even if it does, it's still a horridly straight pitch, but at least it would be usable.

It was rainy. It was his first start. I know all the excuses that will be tossed around by the Allard fans. The fact is that poor FA and mediocre off speed stuff limits his upside to a #5 or AAAA guy, and it is clear why he plummeted down the prospect lists despite good results. I was really hoping to see a slow FA with tons of movement that made it play way up, or a truly knock out curve that he could rely on, but that isn't the case.
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Thanks! The lack of fastball velocity sucks. He was supposed to sit in the low 90's with the ability to reach into the mid 90's when he was drafted. But he's never been able to regain that velocity since the back injury.

What's really a shame is that Allard looked to have a fair idea of how to pitch (probably why he's been able to dominate minor leaguers). If he had the stuff he was drafted with then you're probably looking at a very decent pitcher.
 
How does a guy like Zach Eflin up his velocity by like 3-5 MPH?
dude had worse K-rates in the minors than allard does. velo jumps up and suddenly he's a decent MLB pitcher.
 
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