Allard's Stuff

We need to send him to driveline or some throwing program designed to increase velocity. Also he needs to be taught deception. He has none.
 
I'm willing to see what happens after jitters and better weather, but this is all underwhelming and worrisome. We've heard for a while now that he's had a hard time even sitting at 90... The straight fastball is also concerning... depending on what scouting report you read, going into the draft his fastball was supposed to be a 60 or 65 FV pitch sitting 92-94 with the ability to touch 96. I read one report that said his Fastball was already a plus pitch going into the draft. It baffles me that the velocity has fallen off that drastically with no injuries. I guess it could have been his back issue? But it still sounds like that was a minor thing in the end.
 
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zbhargrove said:
I'm willing to see what happens after jitters and better weather, but this is all underwhelming and worrisome. We've heard for a while now that he's had a hard time even sitting at 90... The straight fastball is also concerning... depending on what scouting report you read, going into the draft his fastball was supposed to be a 60 or 65 FV pitch sitting 92-94 with the ability to touch 96. I read one report that said his Fastball was already a plus pitch going into the draft. It baffles me that the velocity has fallen off that drastically with no injuries. I guess it could have been his back issue? But it still sounds like that was a minor thing in the end.
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What I've learned in life is that there's rarely a back issue that requires surgery that ends up just being a "minor thing". I'm with those that would have the Braves have Allard do whatever it took to try to get his velocity back. An Allard that sits at 93 with a good curve and excellent control is a very, very valuable piece.
 
His first back surgery was not minor. That was his risk when drafted. He had not fully recovered. Then he had a second minor procedure if I recall. I wonder if he tweaked his delivery to ease some pressure on back and it sucked a few mph off. Who knows.

Ultimately. He is 20. Really 21. So he could develop or tweek something to gain mph and or movement. Or he could go like so many before and be a nothing that we can make fun of our gm about.
 
All this talk of dope spin-rates and injury questions reminds me I’m still disappointed Carter Stewart isn’t pitching in the organization.
 
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jpx7 said:
All this talk of dope spin-rates and injury questions reminds me I’m still disappointed Carter Stewart isn’t pitching in the organization.
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He'll now shun miss state in favor of juco. After losing him twice, I'll almost guarantee carter will be a 1st ballot HOF
 
Enscheff said:
FA: 89.4 mph (Grade 36.0), 4.3" HMov (Grade 45.2), 7.7" VMov (Grade 38.2)

This is an unusable FA. Slow, straight. Simply not a MLB quality pitch without Grade 80 command.

CU: 73.4 mph (Grade 31.5), 2.9" HMov (Grade 62.3), -5.1" VMov (Grade 53.7)

The curve is a slow bender that looked legit on TV, and the data shows that it is in fact legit. This is a 55.

CH: 9.1 mph delta (Grade 56.6), 6.5" HMov (Grade 41.5), 4.2" VMov (Grade 52.9)

This change is a 50, and definitely usable at the MLB level.

So we are looking at a 35 FA, 55 CU and 50 CH. A junk baller at the age of 21.

Will the velocity tick up 2-3 MPH? Even if it does, it's still a horridly straight pitch, but at least it would be usable.

It was rainy. It was his first start. I know all the excuses that will be tossed around by the Allard fans. The fact is that poor FA and mediocre off speed stuff limits his upside to a #5 or AAAA guy, and it is clear why he plummeted down the prospect lists despite good results. I was really hoping to see a slow FA with tons of movement that made it play way up, or a truly knock out curve that he could rely on, but that isn't the case.
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I still can't quite fathom how all of this is true, and I'm not doubting it is, and he's super successful as a 20 year old in AAA. I mean that's just a rarity in itself, let alone to be dominating with this type of stuff.
 
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Enscheff said:
The funny thing about facts is that they don't require you to believe them to remain true.
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I think he’s more saying that it’s mind-boggling that a 20-year-old is both a junk-baller and dominating AAA, not that the facts disagree with the truth.
 
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Enscheff said:
The funny thing about facts is that they don't require you to believe them to remain true.
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Yea read what I said again, I wasn't disagreeing lol. I was just asking how a junk baller is dominating AAA as a 20 year old. Doesn't seem possible but it's happening.
 
jpx7 said:
I think he’s more saying that it’s mind-boggling that a 20-year-old is both a junk-baller and dominating AAA, not that the facts disagree with the truth.
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It's really not a bad question. Given that the numbers say he shouldn't be successful, why has he nonetheless been successful so far? Asking the question is not disbelieving the numbers, it is trying to better understand what they are telling us.

It has to be very unusual for a 20 year old to be successful in AAA. It is also unusual for a guy with his pedestrian stuff to be successful in AAA. So, there must be something going on to explain why a guy with both of those things working against him has been successful in AAA. Answering that question could go a long way in determining his future... if, in fact he has a future in baseball.
 
mfree80 said:
It's really not a bad question. Given that the numbers say he shouldn't be successful, why has he nonetheless been successful so far? Asking the question is not disbelieving the numbers, it is trying to better understand what they are telling us.

It has to be very unusual for a 20 year old to be successful in AAA. It is also unusual for a guy with his pedestrian stuff to be successful in AAA. So, there must be something going on to explain why a guy with both of those things working against him has been successful in AAA. Answering that question could go a long way in determining his future... if, in fact he has a future in baseball.
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my guess is all his pitches are a little better than they showed last night...it does appear his curve is his best pitch...probably the one he goes to for a strikeout

with respect to the fastball he does seem to be able to hit the target on both sides of the plate, which is an underrated skill...and he's probably smart enough to throw it just off the plate to certain hitters under certain circumstances...guys like Folty and Newcomb never learn to be crafty that way.
 
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nsacpi said:
my guess is all his pitches are a little better than they showed last night...it does appear his curve is his best pitch...probably the one he goes to for a strikeout
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As a fellow team Allard, I'm concerned, but not giving up
 
msstate7 said:
As a fellow team Allard, I'm concerned, but not giving up
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Concern is fair and proper, I think. As Enscheff’s analysis suggests, even if “all his pitches are a little better than they showed last night”, he seems likely to struggle in the absence of plus-plus command. A fastball a little better than the one he showed last night is still barely useable at the major-league level.
 
if all he is is a fifth starter that's still something...and I believe there is some benefit from having a mix of styles in the rotation...I'd try to separate Folty and Gausman in the rotation for example...Allard can be a preternaturally young Charlie Liebrandt...just keep away from Kirbie Puckett in any high leverage situation
 
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