Anibal Sanchez

PurpleBrave said:
This guy has been nails. Outside of throwing his cutter a lot more, what’s different?
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mostly the home run per flyball rate...which has a big luck component...I should say last year he was VERY unlucky in that department...this year he's been a bit lucky, especially in the BABIP department
 
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Dude ain't been decent since 2014, so I'm sensing a regression incoming. Wonder if they Yanks would part with anything for him
 
nsacpi said:
peripherals were not bad last year...just got killed by the home runs...I like watching him pitch...he's got a certain amount of savvy
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Sad part is...the Braves have had two quality starts in the last six games. He’s had both of them. We could possibly be in a six game loosing streak right now without him on the staff.
 
There was a 5 year stretch from 2010-2014 wher Sanchez was a legit #3 or better.

Now he is a formerly good pitcher who is getting a bit of luck on HR/FB rate, and a lot of luck with BABIP.
 
He has increased his cutter usage and its been his best pitch.

The other change is more subtle. He is throwing more first pitch strikes (65.4% versus 61.5% for his career). But after that he is expanding the strike zone and getting hitters to make outs by chasing pitches just outside the strike zone. Swinging strike percentage is down, which tells me that it isn't a case of his stuff ticking up. The key has been getting the hitters to chase stuff outside the zone and make weak contact on those pitches. Interestingly though, once he gets to strike two he has been able to put them away. Don't know how much this is plan and smart sequencing, and how much is luck. He does seem to be a very smart pitcher. Next few starts I'll pay more attention to what he is doing once he gets two strikes on a hitter. I'm going to guess there is no clear pattern. Sometimes randomization is an effective strategy (it is something that game theory teaches us and game theory has a fair amount of relevance to pitching).
 
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nsacpi said:
He has increased his cutter usage and its been his best pitch.

The other change is more subtle. He is throwing more first pitch strikes (65.4% versus 61.5% for his career). But after that he is expanding the strike zone and getting hitters to make outs by chasing pitches just outside the strike zone. Swinging strike percentage is down, which tells me that it isn't a case of his stuff ticking up. The key has been getting the hitters to chase stuff outside the zone and make weak contact on those pitches. Interestingly though, once he gets to strike two he has been able to put them away. Don't know how much this is plan and smart sequencing, and how much is luck. He does seem to be a very smart pitcher. Next few starts I'll pay more attention to what he is doing once he gets two strikes on a hitter. I'm going to guess there is no clear pattern. Sometimes randomization is an effective strategy (it is something that game theory teaches us and game theory has a fair amount of relevance to pitching).
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You know how they do the strikeouts on a roll? Take a look at his last few. He is on the black with everything. I'm sure his sequencing is quite good and you're right, he seems very intelligent, an underrated quality in pitchers. But his mechanics are clean and repeatable, and while he's always had good command, it's just extraordinary this season.

Over his five seasons in Detroit, his ERAs go up like a staircase...2, 3, 4, 5, 6. HR/FB out of control, too. He's given up seven in 53, which is the top end of tolerable, but his WHIP is 1.04. He might have made some mechanical adjustments to make his motion more repeatable with stellar results.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
You know how they do the strikeouts on a roll? Take a look at his last few. He is on the black with everything. I'm sure his sequencing is quite good and you're right, he seems very intelligent, an underrated quality in pitchers. But his mechanics are clean and repeatable, and while he's always had good command, it's just extraordinary this season.

Over his five seasons in Detroit, his ERAs go up like a staircase...2, 3, 4, 5, 6. HR/FB out of control, too. He's given up seven in 53, which is the top end of tolerable, but his WHIP is 1.04. He might have made some mechanical adjustments to make his motion more repeatable with stellar results.
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Huh? His BB rate is worse this year than it was last year. His Zone% is lower this year than last year. His control is no better this year than last.

His success is due to an unsustainable .232 BABIP, as well as a bit of HR luck. When that normalizes, he will be the same 5th/6th SP he has been since 2015.

Stick that quote in your sig. At least it's something I actually wrote rather than something you made up.
 
Two stats that are glaring for Anibal's success so far. 232 BABIP and 81.5% LOB rate. Both would easily be the best that he's put up in the majors. The odds are just not that good for him to continue that type of luck the rest of the season. That said he does have a 3.88 FIP and fits in fine in the rotation. I just hope people are prepared for the regression in certain areas and don't act like he suddenly sucks.
 
thewupk said:
Two stats that are glaring for Anibal's success so far. 232 BABIP and 81.5% LOB rate. Both would easily be the best that he's put up in the majors. The odds are just not that good for him to continue that type of luck the rest of the season. That said he does have a 3.88 FIP and fits in fine in the rotation. I just hope people are prepared for the regression in certain areas and don't act like he suddenly sucks.
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in recent years he's had very bad luck on the HR/FB front...this year he's had good BABIP luck...if you just look at walk and strikeout rates you see a solid pitcher...nothing special but someone who will keep the team in the game most of the time
 
Enscheff said:
Huh? His BB rate is worse this year than it was last year. His Zone% is lower this year than last year. His control is no better this year than last.

His success is due to an unsustainable .232 BABIP, as well as a bit of HR luck. When that normalizes, he will be the same 5th/6th SP he has been since 2015.

Stick that quote in your sig. At least it's something I actually wrote rather than something you made up.
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So unsustainable .232 BABIP is the reason his ERA has gone from 6.41 to 2.72 while his homers have gone from 26 to 7 (half the innings)? I don't think so. Certainly a piece of it, but not the whole story.

You've had some lazy analysis lately. Looking at a weekend of park effects and declaring it proof of all park effects having little impact on all homers was weak, as well. You need to spend a little more time on this stuff. Are you this sloppy at your day job?
 
Better pitching coach than Chuck Hernandez. Sad.

He's not as good as this but he may have found something in increasing his cutter usage, plus a move away from the AL, that has him as a true serviceable backend starter right now.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
So unsustainable .232 BABIP is the reason his ERA has gone from 6.41 to 2.72 while his homers have gone from 26 to 7 (half the innings)? I don't think so. Certainly a piece of it, but not the whole story.

You've had some lazy analysis lately. Looking at a weekend of park effects and declaring it proof of all park effects having little impact on all homers was weak, as well. You need to spend a little more time on this stuff. Are you this sloppy at your day job?
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We were talking about the HRs hit in Yankee Stadium during that series in the game threads, specifically, Sherlock.

I do find it amusing you critique analysis. Care to share some of your own? What are your projections for Sanchez moving forward the rest of the season? Let’s see how accurate it ends up being. Let me guess: your response skirts the question.

My day job is going just fine. Maybe not as well as your paperwork filing, but still pretty good. Go make up another fake quote haha.
 
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