Around Baseball 2015 Edition

gilesfan said:
The ages of them is the big difference here, I bet
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Sixto was 25, Mitchell 27, Belle 27, Clark 31, Rocky was 24. So for half of them sure, but Rocky and Sixto were around the same age range. But either way I'm not sure how age is really relevant here. Harper could develop more HR power as he ages, but he's unlikely to have a slugging % much higher than he has now. So you are talking about his average staying in the same ballpark, which I highly doubt.

I mean, due to the age he was when coming up along with his talent level and the lower offense of this era I'd put better odds on him making the HOF than not if he stays healthy, but you guys are making definite best player in baseball comparisons and Lebron James comparisons, which is an entirely different ballgame. Lebron has been the best player in basketball for at least a 10 year stretch at a time.

Ken Griffey jr was doing similar stuff at a similar age as Harper and even he didn't turn into a Lebron James of baseball. Griffey jr wasn't even the best player in baseball for good portions of his career. It's extremely hard to be that consistent.
 
auyushu said:
Sixto was 25, Mitchell 27, Belle 27, Clark 31, Rocky was 24. So for half of them sure, but Rocky and Sixto were around the same age range. But either way I'm not sure how age is really relevant here. Harper could develop more HR power as he ages, but he's unlikely to have a slugging % much higher than he has now. So you are talking about his average staying in the same ballpark, which I highly doubt.

I mean, due to the age he was when coming up along with his talent level and the lower offense of this era I'd put better odds on him making the HOF than not if he stays healthy, but you guys are making definite best player in baseball comparisons and Lebron James comparisons, which is an entirely different ballgame. Lebron has been the best player in basketball for at least a 10 year stretch at a time.

Ken Griffey jr was doing similar stuff at a similar age as Harper and even he didn't turn into a Lebron James of baseball. Griffey jr wasn't even the best player in baseball for good portions of his career. It's extremely hard to be that consistent.
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I've actually never even said he's the best hitter in baseball much less compare them to LeBron James. All im daying his hes a great hitter and at age 22, i dont expect that to change.

And that saying he's not this good because he's never done it before it's really dumb
 
gilesfan said:
Look at the components of his walk rate. He's made slight improvements at laying off pitches, but a large part of it is pitchers don't throw strikes to him. Hes smart enough of a hitter to lay off pitches. Even if his walk rate is 15%, he's a hell of a hitter.

I'd be interested in what kind of numbers zito and puk expect of him? .800 ops? 900?
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He's seeing 40.9% of pitches in the zone vs a career of 42.8.. He's seeing 4.18 pitches per PA. Meaning every 25 PA he sees about 2-3 more balls. So I don't think that is a huge deal. It's not a massive statistical difference.
 
Carp said:
Why would you assume regression for guys who have done this before and are currently hitting at levels near career averages. Miggy regularly hits over .300 and competes for batting titles. Same for Trout. When has Harper done that or been projected to do that at any point in his professional career?
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Uh, Miguel Cabrera hit .268 as a 20-year-old and .294 as a 21-year-old. He now has a career BA of .321 and has only hit below .313 once since. Bonds K'd at 21% as a 21-year-old, had a BB rate of under 9% at 22, and hit above .261 once before he was 25.

Why in the world would anyone take a player's 19-21 year old seasons and pretend that is what the player will be from here on out?

Just because he plays for the Nationals doesn't mean we have to be crazily biased when evaluating him. The fact that he did what he did at 19 and 20 in the majors is phenomenally huge when looking through baseball history. It generally means the player is likely to become a huge stud. His numbers at that age should not be used as a baseline for what he will be going forward and in no way, shape, or form suggest he will be anything less than great.

I don't personally like Harper very much, and I would love it if he doesn't realize his potential, as he does play for the Nats...but dang, the guy is a phenomenal talent who is coming into his own. I don't know how anyone can honestly say otherwise. What he does from here on out is still to be determined, but acting like he won't hit above .300 because he didn't do so as a 19-year-old in the majors is nonsensical.
 
gilesfan said:
All im daying his hes a great hitter and at age 22, i dont expect that to change.

And that saying he's not this good because he's never done it before it's really dumb
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Agreed. I think Harper is a douchebag and have never cared all that much for him, but I've never doubted his talent. I've actually been surprised he did so poorly the last couple years (well not poorly really, but not at the level I expected). I fully expect him to be a .950+ OPS guy for his peak years, health willing. I'm just not expecting him to consistently hit .330+ with 1.100+ OPS, because only a couple players in history have done that and one was a massive juicer.
 
zitothebrave said:
He's seeing 40.9% of pitches in the zone vs a career of 42.8.. He's seeing 4.18 pitches per PA. Meaning every 25 PA he sees about 2-3 more balls. So I don't think that is a huge deal. It's not a massive statistical difference.
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What is his swing rate?

What is his swing rate on balls out of rhe Zone?
 
gilesfan said:
I've actually never even said he's the best hitter in baseball much less compare them to LeBron James. All im daying his hes a great hitter and at age 22, i dont expect that to change.

And that saying he's not this good because he's never done it before it's really dumb
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So is he this good? Should we expect that this is Harpers true talent level and he's a top 5 hitter of all time?
 
thewupk said:
So is he this good? Should we expect that this is Harpers true talent level and he's a top 5 hitter of all time?
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Obviously no one knows that. But what you don't realize is that saying, 'This isn't the real Harper because he wasn't this good when he was 19 or 20' is just as ridiculous as calling him a top 5 hitter of all time at 22.
 
smootness said:
Obviously no one knows that. But what you don't realize is that saying, 'This isn't the real Harper because he wasn't this good when he was 19 or 20' is just as ridiculous as calling him a top 5 hitter of all time at 22.
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No I think calling him a top 5 hitter all time is a bit more ridiculous.
 
Anybody in this thread who has defended Bryce Harper (in any way, shape, form, or fashion) can suck a massive dick.

070415_harper_hr_med_ao9fsxv8.gif
 
Hawk said:
Anybody in this thread who has defended Bryce Harper (in any way, shape, form, or fashion) can suck a massive dick.

070415_harper_hr_med_ao9fsxv8.gif
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He's a stud, hope he leaves to the Yankees or someone else when he's a FA.
 
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