Around Baseball 2015 Edition

yeezus said:
Where did his power go though? It's very odd. He's still only 25 and has shown plenty in the past. But he just isn't really hitting for any.
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I think there is something to be said for getting smashed in the face. He hasn't hit for the same power since.
 
gilesfan said:
Its amazing to me that people that are huge baseball fans refuse to take a cursory look at why players have certain stats. When people mentioned Teheran was a bit lucky last year, you refused to believe it. Teheran will be fine, but he hasn't shown peripherals to support a low 3 era.

Alex Wood is the best starter for us, imo. While, he's been lucky in not giving up homers, he's had terrible luck in BABIP and LOB%; they will stabilize and he will show hes the best starter on the roster.

Shelby Miller hasn't done anything this year that's an improvement on his career. He's striking out less guys. He has an absurd .206 BABIP, that will rise significantly.
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He's good, but I still think he has too many innings where he just labors. Don't know if he loses his arm slot, but he has those games where he's at 100 pitches in the 5th inning and I wonder what the heck is going on.

We'll just have to wait on Miller. His GO/AO is much better this season than it has characteristically been in the past and that should keep more balls in the park. I loved him as a prospect when he was coming out of high school. Big, strong guy who has above average stuff and pitches forward. That's a lot to build on.

To BRule, I don't think anyone in their right mind is comparing Heyward to Markakis.
 
thethe said:
Legit question here...how does he get that done? What is he doing wrong currently?
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Hard to find swings from Heyward as a Cardinal. But, seems to me, his swing is jumpy. WHen he was going go for the Braves, he sat back and let the ball travel in and had a nice level to slightly upward swing plane. He created a ton of torque with his front side.


Now, he's jumping at the ball and by doing so is off balance and not creating the torque on the front side. Unless you have a severe uppercut in your swing, it's hard to create that lift when you are as off balance as Heyward is. Here is a swing from the 7th, which didn't fool him and was a good pitch to hit:

http://m.mlb.com/video/v105316283/chcstl-heyward-singles-in-reynolds-for-the-lead/?c_id=mlb

Pause it at the 5 second mark of each and compare his alignment/spine
 
yeezus said:
I'm not comparing Heyward to Markakis. And if Heyward would take a 4 year, $44 mil deal, sign me up.
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That Markakis contract is so bad, but it looks like Heyward is on pace to sign a contract that could be just as bad.

But I hope not for either. I rather enjoy both players.
 
Shelby isn't doing this by smoke and mirrors. His homerun rate is basically what it's always been, his walks are the same, and his strike outs are the same. He will regress because he's stranding an unsustainable amount, but I don't think he will regress back to his career averages (which are actually okay fwiw).

Although his line drive rate is about what it's always been, he is generating a significant higher amount of weaker contact. Looking at Fangraphs hard hit ball rates it looks like the groundball pitcher thing is sustainable. I have no issue with him becoming a higher ceiling Justin Masterson.
 
Also, whomever said his cutter/two seamer hasnt been an out pitch needs to check the data. Fangraphs has it as his best pitch by a wide margin.
 
gilesfan said:
Hard to find swings from Heyward as a Cardinal. But, seems to me, his swing is jumpy. WHen he was going go for the Braves, he sat back and let the ball travel in and had a nice level to slightly upward swing plane. He created a ton of torque with his front side.


Now, he's jumping at the ball and by doing so is off balance and not creating the torque on the front side. Unless you have a severe uppercut in your swing, it's hard to create that lift when you are as off balance as Heyward is. Here is a swing from the 7th, which didn't fool him and was a good pitch to hit:

http://m.mlb.com/video/v105316283/chcstl-heyward-singles-in-reynolds-for-the-lead/?c_id=mlb

Pause it at the 5 second mark of each and compare his alignment/spine
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I know so little about hitting and could never hit, but I always have thought that there is too much "noise" in Heyward's stance.
 
chop2chip said:
Shelby isn't doing this by smoke and mirrors. His homerun rate is basically what it's always been, his walks are the same, and his strike outs are the same. He will regress because he's stranding an unsustainable amount, but I don't think he will regress back to his career averages (which are actually okay fwiw).

Although his line drive rate is about what it's always been, he is generating a significant higher amount of weaker contact. Looking at Fangraphs hard hit ball rates it looks like the groundball pitcher thing is sustainable. I have no issue with him becoming a higher ceiling Justin Masterson.
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The difference in his performance is reflected in higher GB% (good), higher LOB%(not sustainable), lower BABIP (not sustainable). His hard hit% is the same as career, just a little uptick on softer contact (at the expense of medium contact), which is a good thing for sure; but doesn't explain a .202 BABIP. The starter with the lowest BABIP in 2014 was JOhnny Cueto at .238 (and Miller was actually third at .256). THe majority of low BABIP pitchers are flyball pitchers.
 
chop2chip said:
Also, whomever said his cutter/two seamer hasnt been an out pitch needs to check the data. Fangraphs has it as his best pitch by a wide margin.
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a cutter and a 2-seamer are different pitches. a 2 seamer sinks and sometimes moves in on rightes (from a Righty). A cutter moves away from righties (from righty). A cutter is essentially a mix of slider/fastball where a 2 seamer is essentially a sinker.

Here are MIller's "pitchfx values:"

4 seam FB- 3.7
2 seam FB- -0.5
cutter- 5.0
Curve- 1.6
Change- -0.8
 
gilesfan said:
a cutter and a 2-seamer are different pitches. a 2 seamer sinks and sometimes moves in on rightes (from a Righty). A cutter moves away from righties (from righty). A cutter is essentially a mix of slider/fastball where a 2 seamer is essentially a sinker.

Here are MIller's "pitchfx values:"

4 seam FB- 3.7

2 seam FB- -0.5

cutter- 5.0

Curve- 1.6

Change- -0.8
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The point is he added a pitch to his repertoire that is different from years previous. He's alway "had" a cutter, but this is the first time, ever, where he's actually been using it substantially (5% to 20%). Sure, his two seamer this year has reflected to be slightly below average, but last year it was plus pitch after he started using it come August. There is mountain's of evidence that he's maded significant changes for the better, and the best part is the improvement have occurred in ways that are predictable.

And his increase in soft hit rate can be attributed to both a decline in medium AND hard hit rate (about 3.5% for one and 1.5% for the other). 1.5% comes out to be a little more than one less hard hit ball per game (extra base hits) and the drop in medium is 3 less medium hits per game (singles).
 
chop2chip said:
The point is he added a pitch to his repertoire that is different from years previous. He's alway "had" a cutter, but this is the first time, ever, where he's actually been using it substantially (5% to 20%). Sure, his two seamer this year has reflected to be slightly below average, but last year it was plus pitch after he started using it come August. There is mountain's of evidence that he's maded significant changes for the better, and the best part is the improvement have occurred in ways that are predictable.

And his increase in soft hit rate can be attributed to both a decline in medium AND hard hit rate (about 3.5% for one and 1.5% for the other). 1.5% comes out to be a little more than one less hard hit ball per game (extra base hits) and the drop in medium is 3 less medium hits per game (singles).
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I agree with you on most of what you are saying. I'm stating that the level of improvement doesn't match his current ERA. (obviously) He's not going to have a BABIP in the low 200s and he's not going to strand 89% of all runners.

But, obviously there are improvements (career FIP of 4.00 that is 3.66 this year); (career xFIP of 4.05 that is 3.71 this year).

Plus, we are only talking about 6 starts here so all this talk could become moot. He will face a stiffer level of competition and we will see what he's got. (Philly x2, Mia x2, Tor, Cincy)
 
gilesfan said:
I agree with you on most of what you are saying. I'm stating that the level of improvement doesn't match his current ERA. (obviously) He's not going to have a BABIP in the low 200s and he's not going to strand 89% of all runners.

But, obviously there are improvements (career FIP of 4.00 that is 3.66 this year); (career xFIP of 4.05 that is 3.71 this year).

Plus, we are only talking about 6 starts here so all this talk could become moot. He will face a stiffer level of competition and we will see what he's got. (Philly x2, Mia x2, Tor, Cincy)
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That's fair. The Philly factor shouldn't go unnoticed. I'm also not of the belief that he's to a point where we should be taking about true ace, but he's absolutely flashing #2 right now, even with some regression.
 
gilesfan said:
Hard to find swings from Heyward as a Cardinal. But, seems to me, his swing is jumpy. WHen he was going go for the Braves, he sat back and let the ball travel in and had a nice level to slightly upward swing plane. He created a ton of torque with his front side.


Now, he's jumping at the ball and by doing so is off balance and not creating the torque on the front side. Unless you have a severe uppercut in your swing, it's hard to create that lift when you are as off balance as Heyward is. Here is a swing from the 7th, which didn't fool him and was a good pitch to hit:

http://m.mlb.com/video/v105316283/chcstl-heyward-singles-in-reynolds-for-the-lead/?c_id=mlb

Pause it at the 5 second mark of each and compare his alignment/spine
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Just another observation looking at the tape, does his front leg seem firm enough? Doesn't seem to get that classic straight leg plant.
 
50PoundHead said:
Just another observation looking at the tape, does his front leg seem firm enough? Doesn't seem to get that classic straight leg plant.
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Yes, in his most recent swings I could find, his front side is not firm, which is essentially where he gets all of his torque from. Im guessing this is because he's jumping at the ball.
 
yeezus said:
good timing on this, eh?

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/buying-high-on-shelby-miller/
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Excellent timing.

Summary: depending on your outlook, Shelby's performance is either going to regress to his underwhelming peripherals or is underwhelming peripherals are going to catch up to his performance as his confidence increases in his new pitches.

As a biased homer I pick the latter, but if you take the former, then I won't hold it against you.
 
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