I thought that was Bryce Harper?
Just joshing. I mean the deal doesn't matter for the Angels. But it has a negative impact on us. So I'm really more concerned about us.
My belief about Harper has not changed in the slightest.
Around Baseball Offseason Edition - Derek Jeter will retire at seasons end
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My belief about Harper has not changed in the slightest.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
Including your belief that he would be better than Trout in 2013
If he didn't get hurt he would have given him a run for his money. But he did get hurt so I was wrong.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
Manny took roids. You have no clue how that effected his aging curve.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
Oh thethe, you're so silly. The thing with Harper is even if he hits close to Trout, he's not as good of a defender or baserunner.
Harper projects as more of a 5-6 WAR type of player on the regular unless he takes his D to the next level which he may. Or his offense goes totally bonkers. Which either could happen, but neither is likely.
Heyward
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br>'13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner
Seriously?
1- Baseball ecomomics are ridiculous right now.
2- Trout had two of the best seasons EVER at 20-22 years old.
3- There is no way thats an overpay, he may go down as one of the top 5 players all-time, maybe the best.
It's a fine deal.
Whats the alternative, play it out every year in arb and let him walk?
They at least got 2 FA years.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
I doubt it, though WAR will continue to be updated and tweaked. WAR or WARP (same stat just different name) has been around for ages. It evolves as stats become more advanced. Defensive and offensive tweaks will happen, but I don't think there will be a massive swing like you seem to think.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
1. Baseball economics in FA have nothing to do with arbitration. I don't get why I have to constantly explain this to everyone over and over again. But arbitration raises go much slower than free agent. Look up the number of first time arb players who signed for 10+M. Arbitration looks at things like service time, counting stats like homers, RBIs and stolen bases. Trout excels in that, but not at some insane clip.
2. As stated above, has to do with counting stats, RBIs, runs, etc.
3. Trout may be the best player of all-time? Holy **** thethe.
As far as alternatives, yes they can go that route. Again as I said it doesn't really hurt them, but it hurts every other team in baseball because it drives up salaries for similar service times.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
Someone could say they're 80% of trout or any other number. Mold breaking players are bad for us mid market teams. Grnted we have no one going to arb for us worth a damn anytime soon, but pretend we have another Freddie or Jason. Instead of making like 4M or so that now could be up to 6 or 7 or more.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Trout sold 3 FA years at $30M or a little less per year. Imo this is a very good deal for the Angels. It also potentially helpful for the Braves in setting the parameters of a deal with Heyward next off season. Even assuming that he has a very good season, I think it will be hard for Jason and his agent to argue that he should be within $5M per year of what Trout is worth. I do think he will have a case for getting more in his FA years than Freeman. So my guess is that Jason will end up with something in the $23-25M/year range for his FA years, assuming he has a strong 2014.
It buys out 3 free agent years. And Trout would not have been a super 2. 2014 was his last pre arb year and is going to make 1 million when normally he would still be getting close to league min. This is a good deal for the Angels. Good deal for both sides really. If Trout played it year to year and then signed a deal in free agency he would make a lot more from 2015-2020. Still it's 144 million after only two years of service time which has never been seen before. Anything can happen in baseball so he took security now and will still be a free agent after his 29 year old season. And if Trout produces anywhere close to what he's done so far in the next 7 years he will likely take home a mega 10 year deal when this one expires.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
WAR should be replaced by WUT (wins under Trout).
The components may change as we get more advanced data (namely from the defensive side) but the concept won't. The idea is to know exactly how good a player is compared to his peers. That drives everything in the sport. Counting stats do not and that has been apparent for quite some time.
I get that completely. I'm not saying the concept of deviation from the average will change. Just the way we determine what inputs go into the calculation of a deviation.
Uh oh...we are going to start to hear about how the Nationals are facing dire injury concerns by the media!
I can see that. Especially with the new system MLB is putting in regards to defense. Plus eventually getting to scoops by 1B and pitch framing by catchers. I think the offensive side is as close to perfect as it can get. A few tweaks here and there but a linear weights offensive component is the way to go.
edit: and baseball prospectus has done some good work regarding catcher defense too.
I agree completely that this new fielding system is going to change everything. I just believe that the method of evaluating defense at this point in time is guesswork at best. Yes, its easy to say that Simmons/Heyward are great defenders. But how great? Thats up for debate.