Around Baseball Offseason Edition - Derek Jeter will retire at seasons end

Enscheff said:
A very likely scenario is that the Phils are out of the playoff race by the trade deadline and have the best starting pitcher available to trade. They could essentially turn $10M (the portion they paid him before being traded) into a nice prospect from a contending team. Imagine what they could get for AJ from a cash-strapped contender if they also agree to pay the rest of his salary for the year.

Rebuilding teams with a large payroll should do more of this, in my opinion. Sign very good veterans to 1 year deals and use them as trade chips at the deadline to infuse more talent into the system.
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I see that, but still don't think it's the smartest move.

Suppose Burnett stumbles out of the gate at CBP. The fans crucify him, he's miserable, etc. The team then loses whatever leverage they may have had in trade negotiations and maybe the ideal scenario you posit plays out a little differently. Maybe they have to eat all of the money just to move him. Maybe Amaro wants to keep him, because his loves veterans more than Bowden loved five-tool players.

It's not like that $16MM had to be spent before Opening Day ... save it for a rainy day, Jason Heyward's free agency, or something.
 
BRule said:
Don't see how this is a bad signing.....yeah Philly needs some hitting but Burnett is a 200 innings guy, 2.9 FIP, 4 WAR and if you go by value he was worth 19.9 mil last year.
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Yes, if you posture about WAR, that makes you cool and authoritative.

Here are the highest annual salaried contracts (not that our old pals, Lowe & Hampton were listed):

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-info/highest-paid-players/

Starting pitchers
The highest-paid starting pitchers, by average annual value:
1. Clayton Kershaw, $30,714,286 (2014-20)
2. Justin Verlander, $25,714,286 (2013-19)
3. Felix Hernandez, $25,000,000 (2013-19)
4. Zack Greinke, $24,500,000 (2013-18)
5. CC Sabathia, $24,400,000 (2012-16)
6. Cole Hamels, $24,000,000 (2013-18)
. . . Cliff Lee, $24,000,000 (2011-15)
8. CC Sabathia, $23,000,000 (2009-15)
9. Johan Santana, $22,916,667 (2008-13)
10. Masahiro Tanaka, $22,142,857 (2014-20)
11. Matt Cain, $21,250,000 (2012-17)
12. Tim Lincecum, $20,250,000 (2012-13)
13. Roy Halladay, $20,000,000 (2011-13)
14. Adam Wainwright, $19,500,000 (2014-18)
15. Carlos Zambrano, $18,300,000 (2008-12)
16. Barry Zito, $18,000,000 (2007-13)
17. Tim Lincecum, $17,500,000 (2014-15)
18. Jake Peavy, $17,333,333 (2010-12)
19. Josh Beckett, $17,000,000 (2011-14)
. . . Jered Weaver, $17,000,000 (2012-16)
21. A.J. Burnett, $16,500,000 (2009-13)
. . . John Lackey, $16,500,000 (2010-14)
23. Justin Verlander, $16,000,000 (2010-14)
. . . Anibal Sanchez, $16,000,000 (2013-17)
. . . Hiroki Kuroda, $16,000,000 (2014)
26. Jason Schmidt, $15,666,667 (2007-09)
27. Felix Hernandez, $15,600,000 (2010-14)
28. C.J. Wilson, $15,500,000 (2012-16)
29. Max Scherzer, $15,250,000 (2014)
30. Mike Hampton, $15,125,000 (2001-08)
31. Derek Lowe, $15,000,000 (2009-12)
. . . Hiroki Kuroda, $15,000,000 (2013)
33. Roy Oswalt, $14,600,000 (2007-11)
34. Mark Buehrle, $14,500,000 (2012-15)
. . . Jake Peavy, $14,500,000 (2013-14)
36. Mark Buehrle, $14,000,000 (2008-11)
. . . David Price, $14,000,000 (2014)
38. Roy Halladay, $13,333,333 (2008-10)
39. Pedro Martinez, $13,250,000 (2005-08)
. . . Ryan Dempster, $13,250,000 (2013-14)
41. Ryan Dempster, $13,000,000 (2009-12)
. . . John Danks, $13,000,000 (2012-16)
. . . Edwin Jackson, $13,000,000 (2013-16)
. . . Dan Haren, $13,000,000 (2013)
45. Chris Carpenter, $12,700,000 (2008-11)
46. Pedro Martinez, $12,500,000 (1998-2003)
. . . Bronson Arroyo, $12,500,000 (2009-10)
. . . R.A. Dickey, $12,500,000 (2014-15)
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When a starting pitcher is flirting with $20,000,000/year, he'd better have some serious Cy Young credentials or have had some noteworthy post-season success. Otherwise, it's just drinking the Kool Aid of salary esclation and inflation.
 
Hawk said:
I see that, but still don't think it's the smartest move.

Suppose Burnett stumbles out of the gate at CBP. The fans crucify him, he's miserable, etc. The team then loses whatever leverage they may have had in trade negotiations and maybe the ideal scenario you posit plays out a little differently. Maybe they have to eat all of the money just to move him. Maybe Amaro wants to keep him, because his loves veterans more than Bowden loved five-tool players.

It's not like that $16MM had to be spent before Opening Day ... save it for a rainy day, Jason Heyward's free agency, or something.
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All what ifs.

It's a 1-yr deal so it has no effect on them signing someone in FA next year or the year after so i dont see where this is going.
 
I also have a hard time finding justification for the contract in Burnett's 2013 numbers, given his age. It would be different, for me, if he were younger, but nothing is bankable about the arm of a 37 year old power pitcher.
 
Looks like Hamels will miss the start of the season. Poor Phillies. So much spending so little to show for.
 
Hawk said:
I also have a hard time finding justification for the contract in Burnett's 2013 numbers, given his age. It would be different, for me, if he were younger, but nothing is bankable about the arm of a 37 year old power pitcher.
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The length of the contract reflects his age. Younger pitchers go south too.
 
Not sure what the 1st part was about but anyways.....

Also don't get the point of posting the salaries....of the guys that made 14-17 mil only Felix and Max are no doubt better than AJ, excluding Verlander since he appears higher on the list now.

Basically, I don't the point of the post
 
Heyward said:
All what ifs.

It's a 1-yr deal so it has no effect on them signing someone in FA next year or the year after so i dont see where this is going.
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This entire discussion is a huge what-if. I think that's the point. We're exploring all the angles.

Just because it's a one year contract doesn't mean that the $16MM automatically comes back in 2015. It's still money that the team has spent that might have been better appropriated elsewhere (which is really my primary contention).
 
Heyward said:
All what ifs.

It's a 1-yr deal so it has no effect on them signing someone in FA next year or the year after so i dont see where this is going.
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You have 0 clue how Liberty funds the Braves, maybe they set an annual budget and if the Braves don't hit it they can roll it over. I'm not saying that's what is happening but don't act like you know what goes on.
 
nsacpi said:
The length of the contract reflects his age. Younger pitchers go south too.
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Arroyo is the same age as Burnett and just got 3 years from Arizona (although the AAV is lower). It would seem AJ could've scored a 2 or 3 year deal if he actually wanted it.
 
Hawk said:
Arroyo is the same age as Burnett and just got 3 years from Arizona (although the AAV is lower). It would seem AJ could've scored 2 or 3 year deal if he actually wanted it.
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My point was that the length of the contract (1 year) mitigated the age risk. I'm the one saying this isn't a bad deal for Philly.
 
nsacpi said:
My point was that the length of the contract (1 year) mitigated the age risk. I'm the one saying this isn't a bad deal for Philly.
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You can't mitigate an inherent risk. He's on the other side of the hill, so to speak. The only way is down.

IIRC you have defended virtually all of the big ticket pitching signings this offseason, though.
 
Hawk said:
You can't mitigate an inherent risk. He's on the other side of the hill, so to speak. The only way is down.

IIRC you have defended virtually all of the big ticket pitching signings this offseason, though.
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You must have me confused with someone else. I tend not to like long-term deals for pitchers.

What is the distinction between risks that are inherent and ones that aren't.
 
nsacpi said:
You must have me confused with someone else. I tend not to like long-term deals for pitchers.

What is the distinction between risks that are inherent and ones that aren't.
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I meant you have defended the finances of the deals, not the years, but I may indeed be confusing you with someone else.

In the Burnett contract I see three primary risks, two of which you could argue are perceptive.

1 - Overall desire to play baseball -- Call it overblown, subjective, whatever, but I think it's worth taking into account

2 - Age -- This is inherent, he's 37 on Opening Day. You can't change this.

That the $16MM is not $32MM over two years or $48MM or three is immaterial, Philadelphia overpaid for their one year in comparison to what the current market is yielding.

3 - Market -- Burnett was horrible in New York, so much so that Yankees traded him to PIT for a pittance, AND paid over 50% of his remaining contract. Burnett apparently didn't like the way fans received him in NYC, obviously that risk is similar in Philly.
 
Hawk said:
This entire discussion is a huge what-if. I think that's the point. We're exploring all the angles.

Just because it's a one year contract doesn't mean that the $16MM automatically comes back in 2015. It's still money that the team has spent that might have been better appropriated elsewhere (which is really my primary contention).
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The Phillies have plenty of money so if they want someone, they can go get someone elsewhere if they chose to do so.

The Burnett deal isnt bad, it was whats being projected.
 
zitothebrave said:
You have 0 clue how Liberty funds the Braves, maybe they set an annual budget and if the Braves don't hit it they can roll it over. I'm not saying that's what is happening but don't act like you know what goes on.
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What the hell, what are you talking about.

I would of gladly signed AJ for that price for 1 year, no problem.
 
Heyward said:
What the hell, what are you talking about.

I would of gladly signed AJ for that price for 1 year, no problem.
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Do I have to spell it out?

You don't know how our team financials. What if signing Burnett 1/16 means that we're a few million away from keeping Meds or Kimbrel down the line. We don't know that the Braves just have a set budget and if they don't hit it the rest disappears, maybe Wren is allowed to put money away. We don't know.
 
Burnett last year.

30 starts, 191 IP, 209 K's, 67 walks, 1.21 WHIP.

Even if he flops (i dont think he will), it's just 1-year, so it's not a long-term commitment.

It's a fine deal.
 
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