Around MLB 2016 style

gilesfan said:
They use weighted average of past performance. Its certainly not based on 1 year of data. Zips projects 149. Most players would take his "down' year.

What do you think he's going to be over the next 3-4 years? You don't really project 120ish, do you?
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I'm aware of what they use. I would predict a 120-135 range which is what he's done every year besides one so far.
 
thewupk said:
It did happen which is why his projections got boosted. It predicted way more power this year than he's shown. And I am fine with that. However I don't really see Harper having a 150 WRC+ from today through the end of the season. That projection uses past results to predict their numbers and doesn't factor how he's currently playing. So unless Harper stops popping the ball up and starts hitting more line drives he won't sniff that result that is being predicted for him.
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You are relying on batted ball data too heavily. The correlation between BABIP at this point is considered weak.

Here are some guys to note:

Cargo .375 BABIP, 8.7% IFFB%, 21.9% soft contact
Machado .323 BABIP, 16.4% IFFB, 21.9% soft contact
Hanley .313 BABIP, 13.9% IFFB, 22.2% soft contact
Harper .245 BABIP, 10.2% IFFB, 21.8% soft contact
Cutch .300 BABIP, 11.4% IFFB, 21.4% soft contact
 
thewupk said:
I'm aware of what they use. I would predict a 120-135 range which is what he's done every year besides one so far.
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I will take the over 130 wRC+ for an average over the next 3 years for $500. He also put up 137 as a 20 year old.
 
gilesfan said:
You are relying on batted ball data too heavily. The correlation between BABIP at this point is considered weak.

Here are some guys to note:

Cargo .375 BABIP, 8.7% IFFB%, 21.9% soft contact

Machado .323 BABIP, 16.4% IFFB, 21.9% soft contact

Hanley .313 BABIP, 13.9% IFFB, 22.2% soft contact

Harper .245 BABIP, 10.2% IFFB, 21.8% soft contact

Cutch .300 BABIP, 11.4% IFFB, 21.4% soft contact
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How do those numbers differ from their career marks?

Machado for instance has previous seasons 14.1, 12.5, 15.8, and 15 IFFB%. What he's doing this year is nothing out of the norm. Harper's profile this season is completely out of whack from his career mark to this point. He can't support a good BABIP when he's popping the ball up and hitting very few line drives. And steamer so far as overestimated his power based on a .300 ISO SLG last year. This season is more in line with his 2012 and 2013 season.
 
gilesfan said:
I will take the over 130 wRC+ for an average over the next 3 years for $500. He also put up 137 as a 20 year old.
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I would take that bet too. Still not the 140 career mark he has or the 150 that steamer projects the rest of the season. Do you think that's what he will do?
 
thewupk said:
How do those numbers differ from their career marks?

Machado for instance has previous seasons 14.1, 12.5, 15.8, and 15 IFFB%. What he's doing this year is nothing out of the norm. Harper's profile this season is completely out of whack from his career mark to this point. He can't support a good BABIP when he's popping the ball up and hitting very few line drives. And steamer so far as overestimated his power based on a .300 ISO SLG last year. This season is more in line with his 2012 and 2013 season.
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Explain why Harper would have less hits on balls in play with the same batting profile you listed than Machado would.
 
thewupk said:
I would take that bet too. Still not the 140 career mark he has or the 150 that steamer projects the rest of the season. Do you think that's what he will do?
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140 would be on the low end of what I would expect.
 
gilesfan said:
Explain why Harper would have less hits on balls in play with the same batting profile you listed than Machado would.
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For one Harper's LD% is 5% less than Machados. Looking at other players is pretty irrelevant though. I would rather look at the actual player you are discussing and seeing what their baseline is. Looking at Harper I think it's clear he established a clear batting profile baseline through his first 4 years and 2016 had veered from it drastically. I wouldn't expect the same BABIP from him when he's not making the same kind of contact.
 
thewupk said:
For one Harper's LD% is 5% less than Machados. Looking at other players is pretty irrelevant though. I would rather look at the actual player you are discussing and seeing what their baseline is. Looking at Harper I think it's clear he established a clear batting profile baseline through his first 4 years and 2016 had veered from it drastically. I wouldn't expect the same BABIP from him when he's not making the same kind of contact.
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Then what do you expect his BABIP to be?
 
thewupk said:
Nowhere close to league average that's for sure. I'm sure he's suffering from some bad luck but I would say around 270 or so.
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So assuming that is correct (probably awfully low), but we go with it. He would have hit roughly .258/.400/.475 this year, which is roughly 130-135 wRC+ (maybe slightly higher?) So do even you think your 120 wRC+ is lower than reasonable expected?
 
gilesfan said:
So assuming that is correct (probably awfully low), but we go with it. He would have hit roughly .258/.400/.475 this year, which is roughly 130-135 wRC+ (maybe slightly higher?) So do even you think your 120 wRC+ is lower than reasonable expected?
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It's possible. Also still within my range. Again he's been sub 120 WRC+ 2 of the last 3 seasons.
 
thewupk said:
It's possible. Also still within my range. Again he's been sub 120 WRC+ 2 of the last 3 seasons.
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Well, 1 season at age 21. This season has a bunch of games still left. Do you expect 24-27 to be similar to age 21?
 
gilesfan said:
Well, 1 season at age 21. This season has a bunch of games still left. Do you expect 24-27 to be similar to age 21?
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I don't. But I do believe Harper has matured physically so he's not going to have your typical aging curve as far as that goes. Whether 2017 is closer to a 120 WRC+ or 135 doesn't really matter to me. The point is that I don't expect him to have a WRC+ at his career mark or the 154 that steamer projects because he has only done that once. To me that is a fluke season that is currently vastly inflating his stats. Can he get to those numbers in the next few years? Yes. Do I expect it? I do. But the comparisons to Griffey at this age and whatnot are just off. And if it was anybody but Harper you would see that too.
 
thewupk said:
I don't. But I do believe Harper has matured physically so he's not going to have your typical aging curve as far as that goes. Whether 2017 is closer to a 120 WRC+ or 135 doesn't really matter to me. The point is that I don't expect him to have a WRC+ at his career mark or the 154 that steamer projects because he has only done that once. To me that is a fluke season that is currently vastly inflating his stats. Can he get to those numbers in the next few years? Yes. Do I expect it? I do. But the comparisons to Griffey at this age and whatnot are just off. And if it was anybody but Harper you would see that too.
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Well, for one Harper has as much hitting talent as anyone in baseball outside of maybe Trout. He's also shown that he can have seasons where he is the best hitter in baseball. People are too quick to use numbers from guys at an early age (19-23) seasons and project guys to hit in their prime around the same rate. Hell, look at Freeman ranging from 120 and 115 at age 21/22. Now, he's established as a 135-150 type hitter that will most likely rise over the next 2-3 years. That is typical progression for guys that reach the majors at a young age. Did he reach physical maturity at age 23?

At a completely unsustainable by dozens of points, harper has a 116 wRC+
 
gilesfan said:
Well, for one Harper has as much hitting talent as anyone in baseball outside of maybe Trout. He's also shown that he can have seasons where he is the best hitter in baseball. People are too quick to use numbers from guys at an early age (19-23) seasons and project guys to hit in their prime around the same rate. Hell, look at Freeman ranging from 120 and 115 at age 21/22. Now, he's established as a 135-150 type hitter that will most likely rise over the next 2-3 years. That is typical progression for guys that reach the majors at a young age. Did he reach physical maturity at age 23?

At a completely unsustainable by dozens of points, harper has a 116 wRC+
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I would say Freeman's is typical regression. I feel Harper is more like a Lebron James in that he matured physically really fast and you're not likely to see more in that area. He came in at 19 and was already a man more or less. He does have all the talent in the world and what will set him apart is when he matures mentally as he gets older.
 
Just a question here....

Why are the Braves protecting Pierzynski and O'Flaherty?

They have easily been prime candidates to get released or DFA'ed yet they get these "injuries" to keep them out long enough until the 40-man callups arrive in September. Is it not the Braves' Way to let go of aging players who are not productive (within this new era)?
 
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