Around the League: 2017 offseason edition / 2018 Season

Super said:
this drives me nuts sometimes. yeah, maybe a players performance won't continue long-term. but what they did, they did. that was the actual result of their performance. saying it doesn't count as much because it was "lucky" is really stupid. it's great for long-term evaluating tho.
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This is the main reason I think dinosaurs push back against analytics...this misunderstanding (shocking) over what folks mean when they say something isn't sustainable.

Yes, Albies hit a bunch of HRs early in the season. Those HRs happened. They were awesome. The Braves won games because of them. Albies was extremely valuable to the team due to those HRs. It doesn't matter if they went 325'...they happened and they counted.

However, decisions by baseball FOs have to be made based on what is likely to happen in the future, not what actually happened in the past. Nothing about Albies HR binge suggested it was ever going to happen again, so planning needed to happen based on that fact.

Same thing with Newk's unsustainable start. Same thing with Acuna's currently unsustainable hot streak (42% HR/FB rate).
 
Enscheff said:
Same thing with Acuna's currently unsustainable hot streak (42% HR/FB rate).
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The HR/FB rate will come down. Duh.

That said, he will have smashed your OPS prediction and is closer to Trout than you wanted to believe, especially with these past 2 weeks of 15/13 K/BB rates.

You said .750-.800 OPS. He is at .926 and it's only going up.

Hahahaha.
 
SJ24 said:
The HR/FB rate will come down. Duh.

That said, he will have smashed your OPS prediction and is closer to Trout than you wanted to believe, especially with these past 2 weeks of 15/13 K/BB rates.

You said .750-.800 OPS. He is at .926 and it's only going up.

Hahahaha.
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It's only going up? Care to make a wager on that?

Never mind, we know how reliable your word is...
 
Enscheff said:
It's only going up? Care to make a wager on that?

Never mind, we know how reliable your word is...
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I've said I will leave when the bet has been officially decided.

You are a very small man (both in stature and mindset) who is VERY insecure. I can't imagine placing as much importance on a message board as you do.

Seek help, Mr. .750-.800 OPS. In your wet dreams.
 
SJ24 said:
I've said I will leave when the bet has been officially decided.

You are a very small man (both in stature and mindset) who is VERY insecure. I can't imagine placing as much importance on a message board as you do.

Seek help, Mr. .750-.800 OPS. In your wet dreams.
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It's funny seeing you mock my interest in this board...yet here you are...constantly trying to egg me on.

I'm glad you'll honor the bet. Consider it a life lesson you couldn't get at the local community college you attend while still living at home with D1 Daddy. It will serve you well in your future profession of...whatever nothing job you end up doing that pays $40k a year.

Best of luck in life, Taylor.
 
Enscheff said:
It's funny seeing you mock my interest in this board...yet here you are...constantly trying to egg me on.

I'm glad you'll honor the bet. Consider it a life lesson you couldn't get at the local community college you attend while still living at home with D1 Daddy. It will serve you well in your future profession of...whatever nothing job you end up doing that pays $40k a year.

Best of luck in life, Taylor.
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Enscheff said:
This is the main reason I think dinosaurs push back against analytics...this misunderstanding (shocking) over what folks mean when they say something isn't sustainable.

Yes, Albies hit a bunch of HRs early in the season. Those HRs happened. They were awesome. The Braves won games because of them. Albies was extremely valuable to the team due to those HRs. It doesn't matter if they went 325'...they happened and they counted.

However, decisions by baseball FOs have to be made based on what is likely to happen in the future, not what actually happened in the past. Nothing about Albies HR binge suggested it was ever going to happen again, so planning needed to happen based on that fact.

Same thing with Newk's unsustainable start. Same thing with Acuna's currently unsustainable hot streak (42% HR/FB rate).
Click to expand...

I don't disagree with any of this. Of course analytics are great at predicting what will happen in the future. I totally buy into the luck factor and unsustainability and all that, and that FOs have to make decisions on what is more likely to happen vs what did happen.

I'm just saying for the sake of this award, in Nola's case, calling him lucky and saying he shouldn't win because of that is silly to me. What he did, he did. It won't continue forever, but what happened, happened. that's all.
 
Super said:
I don't disagree with any of this. Of course analytics are great at predicting what will happen in the future. I totally buy into the luck factor and unsustainability and all that, and that FOs have to make decisions on what is more likely to happen vs what did happen.

I'm just saying for the sake of this award, in Nola's case, calling him lucky and saying he shouldn't win because of that is silly to me. What he did, he did. It won't continue forever, but what happened, happened. that's all.
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For the record, I couldn't care less about silly individual awards.

However, the response statheads will give you is that a good portion of a pitcher's success is tied to the defense behind him, or the park he plays in. He should not be credited for contributions made by his defense (good or bad), catcher framing (good or bad), nor should he be dinged for pitching at Coors field.

At the end of the day I only care about what a player is projected to do going forward, but folks who care about these awards should care about contributions made by the player in question...not his surrounding cast. Luck is luck, and most good seasons have a decent amount of it helping the player.
 
Enscheff said:
This is the main reason I think dinosaurs push back against analytics...this misunderstanding (shocking) over what folks mean when they say something isn't sustainable.

Yes, Albies hit a bunch of HRs early in the season. Those HRs happened. They were awesome. The Braves won games because of them. Albies was extremely valuable to the team due to those HRs. It doesn't matter if they went 325'...they happened and they counted.

However, decisions by baseball FOs have to be made based on what is likely to happen in the future, not what actually happened in the past. Nothing about Albies HR binge suggested it was ever going to happen again, so planning needed to happen based on that fact.

Same thing with Newk's unsustainable start. Same thing with Acuna's currently unsustainable hot streak (42% HR/FB rate).
Click to expand...

This is all correct and yet entirely irrelevant to the discussion.
 
Enscheff said:
For the record, I couldn't care less about silly individual awards.

However, the response statheads will give you is that a good portion of a pitcher's success is tied to the defense behind him, or the park he plays in. He should not be credited for contributions made by his defense (good or bad), catcher framing (good or bad), nor should he be dinged for pitching at Coors field.

At the end of the day I only care about what a player is projected to do going forward, but folks who care about these awards should care about contributions made by the player in question...not his surrounding cast. Luck is luck, and most good seasons have a decent amount of it helping the player.
Click to expand...

well, nola certainly hasn't received a ton of help from his defense, and i wouldn't think CBP has helped him a ton.
he's just been really good, and a good bit lucky to have been so good. so it's fair overall what you're saying, i do get it.
 
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