Around the League: 2017 offseason edition / 2018 Season

Carp said:
This isn't a phenomena that is especially limited to 1b though. I posted an analysis a few months back showing that 1b over 30 aren't really any more or less likely to see a huge drop in production than any other position.
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I think the difficult thing to consider with Freeman is, is he going to be the face of the franchise who you want to keep here his whole career. I'm not saying he's Chipper Jones, and Chipper certainly had some injury issues but was able to remain pretty productive. If Freeman can remain productive, and is willing to stay here at a reasonable rate, we really have to consider the Public Relations value of keeping him around.
 
Carp said:
This isn't a phenomena that is especially limited to 1b though. I posted an analysis a few months back showing that 1b over 30 aren't really any more or less likely to see a huge drop in production than any other position.
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Body type matter. Bigger boys with broader shoulders tend to age faster. It's not universally true of course. But when you look at who had the best careers over 30 in the last 25 seasons, you generally see a trend, they're all known cheaters (Bonds, McGwire, LuGon) or they have a smaller frame in general (Chipper, Beltre, Edmonds, Ichiro, Biggio) or they were DH's to extend their career.
 
I'll to try and find the post. But that really hasn't held to be true. The data didn't adjust for body size necessarily, but suffice to say 1b tend to be larger than than most every position, so I think body size is implied. Unless you're just comparing large 1b to smaller 1b.
 
zitothebrave said:
Body type matter. Bigger boys with broader shoulders tend to age faster. It's not universally true of course. But when you look at who had the best careers over 30 in the last 25 seasons, you generally see a trend, they're all known cheaters (Bonds, McGwire, LuGon) or they have a smaller frame in general (Chipper, Beltre, Edmonds, Ichiro, Biggio) or they were DH's to extend their career.
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I think chipper is closer to being in the first category than the second in terms of size.
 
Wasn't sure where to put this, but it is something I never thought of:

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: If a guy hits a bunch of weak bloopers, then xwOBA will consider that good! Even though nothing about a blooper is sustainable

Makes me ponder my use of xwOBA for hitters a bit more carefully now...
 
Here's a nifty note from Talking Chop

"Freddie Freeman and Ryan Flaherty are two of only about 40 players that have yet to hit an infield pop

The heading pretty much says it. It’s better in Freeman’s case than Flaherty’s, though, as Flaherty avoids infield pops by mashing everything into the ground — he has the league’s 11th-highest grounder rate. Freeman, though, went all of last season without an infield pop, so this isn’t even interesting for him anymore. But it is true. (And yes, Freeman was the only player with 200+ PAs and no infield pops last year, because he is a treasure.)"

How do you go an entire season without an infield pop...that's pretty crazy.

Oh they also mentioned that Kurt Suzuki has not hit in a double play this season...pretty crazy too, but he doesn't hit the ball on the ground all that much.
 
Orphan Black said:
Here's a nifty note from Talking Chop

"Freddie Freeman and Ryan Flaherty are two of only about 40 players that have yet to hit an infield pop

The heading pretty much says it. It’s better in Freeman’s case than Flaherty’s, though, as Flaherty avoids infield pops by mashing everything into the ground — he has the league’s 11th-highest grounder rate. Freeman, though, went all of last season without an infield pop, so this isn’t even interesting for him anymore. But it is true. (And yes, Freeman was the only player with 200+ PAs and no infield pops last year, because he is a treasure.)"

How do you go an entire season without an infield pop...that's pretty crazy.

Oh they also mentioned that Kurt Suzuki has not hit in a double play this season...pretty crazy too, but he doesn't hit the ball on the ground all that much.
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Case of stats that don’t tell truth. I can think of two right off where FF fouled out to first. So that doesn’t count as infield pop. But really same thing.
 
MLBTR mentions that Rangers aren't necessarily too keen on moving Beltre. Given Minter's struggles, I'm not sure there's been a better trade partner for the current needs than DMGM in years. KC's desperate for young pitching, and we couldn't possibly use a pair of rentals like Moose and Escobar more than right now - IF the intention is to stay in the race.

No more idea about what it'd take to get both guys than anyone else has - and get them NOW before things really get expensive - but Zuk and Flowers are doing enough to hit behind Freddie to break all the lefties up. While it may ruffle a few feathers, moving Acuna down when he returns would balance things better and eliminate "holes" - Ender, Ozzie, Freddie, Zuk/Flow, Moose, Acuna, Markakis, Dansby would be really solid, and using Escobar to close and move everybody up an inning (not to mention never using Sims and Wisler later than the 5th or 6th inning - or even better, not at all) would probably give this team a puncher's chance at a wildcard.

It's been really fun to watch so far, but unless you're thethe (which is fine) it's hard to not feel like this is starting to slip away if AA doesn't pull the trigger and go get these guys some help pretty soon. I've been big on adding those two for a while now, and still think they're enough to get this team to October, and completely understand if AA's not willing to pay the price - but the time to do something if he's interested in affecting 2018 is close IMO.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
I wouldn’t give up on minter just yet.
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Another example of folks buying into the “the next [insert superstar]” (in this case, Kimbrel) hype, then jumping ship the moment they inevitably aren’t an immediate superstar.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
I wouldn’t give up on minter just yet.
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I've said nothing about "giving up" on Minter in the least - I still hope he's our Closer Of The Future (and that that future's not so far away) - simply that he's struggled much more this year than anyone expected and that the Braves can use more help at the back end. Vizcaino has never been an elite Closer, and the entire pen could benefit from adding an upgrade at the end. Adding someone like Escobar makes Viz your 8th inning guy, Minter/Winkler your 7th inning guys, Freeman/Carle your 6th inning guys and so on in games you feel you HAVE to have, and removes Wisler and Sims from the equation altogether.

Carle was a waiver pickup and Winkler was a Rule V pick - let's don't go acting like anyone expected them to be dominant back end guys by any stretch before their recent runs of success. Everyone around here has screamed that we've needed to upgrade the pen for quite some time now.
 
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