Dansby would have to project to at least 5 WAR over the next 3 years. That alone makes 10M a year a bargain.
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Dansby would have to project to at least 5 WAR over the next 3 years. That alone makes 10M a year a bargain.
Which is why you'd give him that type of extension.
If you're going to have to give him something like the 5 years/$80 million that was mentioned and is much closer to market value, there's no benefit to the team. If he remains healthy and continues to provide 2 WAR seasons for that period, he's "worth it", but how many teams out there are actually going to pay that that aren't more likely going to go after the Big 5 (Seager/Story/Correa/Baez/Semien)? Like I said, the $10 million per would put him in the range of the 12-15 highest-paid SSs. The teams that WON'T pay that are...
San Diego - Tatis
Mutts - Lindor
Boston - Bogaerts
Dodgers - Seager or Turner
Chicago - Anderson
Toronto - Bichette
Texas - Kiner-Falefa
Miami - Rojas or Chisholm
Kansas City - Mondesi or Witt
Colorado - Rodgers
Milwaukee - Adames
Tampa Bay - Franco
Cincinnati - Barrero
That's 13 teams. The following teams are either rebuilding or won't spend that kind of money - Baltimore, Cleveland, Minnesota, Oakland, Arizona, and Pittsburgh.
That leaves 11 teams to bid on Seager, Story, Correa, Semien, Baez, and Swanson. If six of those other teams are willing to give Dansby 5/$80 million, let them. AA could then sign Gregorius, Crawford, or Rojas for one year as a bridge to Shewmake (or even potentially Grissom). The Giants and Crawford are talking extension. The Phillies already have three big contracts in Harper, Wheeler, and Realmuto. The Astros aren't likely going after one of the big names. The Yankees aren't giving a SS $200 million. The Angels probably won't either. The Cardinals won't.
Some - and likely several - of the big-name SSs this winter are going to wind up being incredibly disappointed with the offers they get. There just aren't 6 teams with the resources available to offer them $150 million or more that are close enough to being contenders that it makes sense for them to spend that kind of money on the position.
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Not so much worse that it's worth spending $80 million on him.
NYCBrave
Well-known member
If qualifying offers still exist after the next labor agreement, will be interesting to see if Dansby is someone you'd consider a qualifying offer to. It will be pricey at nearly 20 million, and he would almost certainly accept, but I guess it depends on if you can cheaper production elsewhere.
PawPawMaxwell
Called Up to the Major Leagues
What has to be considered is the fact that Dansby will be competing with Anderson, Bogaerts, Turner and Segura and I doubt that any of them (maybe Segura) will take a discounted contract. That bunch is not too much weaker than this years FA SS crop. Qualifying offers probably disappear this winter as well. Braves should still be in contention window for several more years. Do you want to weaken your team up the middle which is considered the most vital? Like any other team, you have to pay to play. Dansby is not one of my favorite players to watch but all things considered, if you want to contend you have to look farther down the road than last nites box score.
Qualifying Offer or no Qualifying Offer, you still don't give Dansby $80 million if you're in the Braves' situation - there are simply too many more options available. That money would be far better spent on a Freeman extension and picking up a one year guy towards the end of his career than giving it to Dansby.
$16 million this winter is probably enough to get you Gregorius AND a Soler/Rosario platoon for LF on one year deals in 2022 without spending any of the other money coming off of the books (Morton/Smyly/Martin/Ender/d'Arnaud). Didi would get you to Shewmake/Grissom without tying up money long-term, and the hope is that Soler/Rosario would get you that much closer to one or two of Pache/Waters/Harris/Franklin without any long-term commitment as well.
bravesfanforlife88
Well-known member
One thing about AA that hasn't been discussed is that he will upgrade the team at any position if he feels it is a real difference maker. Remember he signed Josh Donaldson when a lot of people felt we were set at 3B.
With the amount of talent out there at SS, I wouldn't be surprised if he traded Dansby to upgrade another spot in the line up and signed one of those big names.
With the amount of talent out there at SS, I wouldn't be surprised if he traded Dansby to upgrade another spot in the line up and signed one of those big names.
Southcack77
Well-known member
Wasn't Camargo the starter when he traded for Donaldson?
Surely no one thought we were set with him?
I'd love somehow to re-sign Freddie and grab Seagar but I somehow think the choice is between paying Dansby what he's worth or piecing something half assed together. Which depending on how the money is spent might be fine.
Um people definitely argued that Camargo was a 3 WAR player at the time *cough*thethe*cough*
I’ve made mistakes.
msstate7
Well-known member
Everyone should just let your 1 or 2 incorrect positions go.
lmao
Heard an interesting interview with Friedman the other day that made me wonder if the Braves payrolls work the same way. He said that their year-to-year number isn't a concern when they added Scherzer and Turner, that he's working with a "block" of years that dictates what he can spend. That going over the luxury tax isn't a concern, but he has to deduct that money from future budgets at some point - he can "go nuts" when he chooses, but doing so handicaps his future flexibility. I remember discussions when JS was in charge about how they'd pay down future commitments (buyouts, signing bonuses, etc.) ahead of time with creative accounting - they'd have added Ender and Tomlin's 2022 buyouts to payrolls in earlier seasons when they didn't get to that year's "cap" so that money wouldn't come out of their pockets next season. It would still count against them for luxury tax purposes of course, but it would already have been "paid for".
That's why I mention $80 million for Dansby would be so much better spent on a Freeman extension. I don't imagine these are necessarily the numbers they're working with, but just for example let's say extending Freddie will cost $25 million times 5 years - $125 million. It would be much easier to replace the $16 million you'd be giving Dansby in 2022 if you signed him to that extension production-wise by signing a "capable" veteran SS on a 1 or 2 year deal for $6 million and two platoon LFs for $5 million each, You could then apply the ~ $11 million per in "savings" (the other $54 million you wouldn't pay Dansby) toward what you're paying Freddie down the road because you expect to replace that SS and those LFs with players making the minimum by 2023 (Shewmake/Grissom/Waters/Pache/Harris/Franklin).
If Liberty has AA working on a "block system" like the Dodgers do, they've probably projected revenues from ticket sales, concessions, The Battery, etc. out over the next ten year period to come up with the number Alex can spend on salaries for the next 5 years. He can exceed that yearly number whenever he wants to with deadline acquisitions or whatever he chooses as long as he can stay within that $750 million for that five years (or whatever the number they give him is).
The point is that that $150 million isn't a hard "cap" - just that it's the range. When they've said in the past that they went to Liberty and asked to exceed the cap for that year and have never been turned down, they mean that they had to meet with them to show that the extra money spent THIS season would be offset because this player or that player would be replaced with someone making less at a certain point. They're not "asking for more money" as much as they just have to show where it will be offset.
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bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
I hope they don’t run the org like my wife. We can afford that vacation if we just don’t take one next year. That next year never comes.
PawPawMaxwell
Called Up to the Major Leagues
That floating block might work with the other 29 teams but I doubt any corporate owned team's shareholders would void their dividends for a flag on the stadium walls. Care to suggest two productive LFers you can/could possibly sign for $5M and while you are at it who is that $6M SS out there in FA that any contender would be interested in? Bet Friedman or the owners would not be interested in any of them. Ill give Waters some slack because of his age but I think AA is just about like me with the short rope and is only hoping someone values Pache enough to give up a bag of balls.
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
I don't know how many of you subscribe to The Athletic, but if you are, you need to read about how difficult life in the minor leagues is for players. Low pay after the signing bonus and really hard to find affordable housing and transportation. It's really eye-opening.
PawPawMaxwell
Called Up to the Major Leagues
I have not read the article yet but will at your suggestion. OTOH, back in the 90s there was a Low A team here. Most if not all players were given free housing by local fans in exchange for season tickets. The team had had a van (may have taken 2 vans) that transported players to home and back. The local community college had a English language class that they conducted every morning 7 days a week during home stands for the latin players. Im sure there were other available benefits. But times change
Actually rather shocking to me that this doesn't get talked about a lot more. I deal with this on a day-to-day basis so it's in front of me all the time, but this is rapidly becoming a huge problem across the board - not just for minor league baseball players. The real estate market has been incredibly hot across the country for well over a year - home prices and rents have skyrocketed everywhere while salaries have remained stagnant pretty much across the board for the rest of the world. Even with the bump, the minimum salary for players in A-Ball (both Lo and High) is $500/week. That's $12.50/hour folks. If you live as far away from Atlanta as I do and you make that, you can't go see a game (much less come down for a weekend series) without saving like a miser for six months
I don't remember what take-home pay was when I was re-stocking shelves for Coke when I was in high school, but it's probably fair to assume the kids in A-Ball bring home between $350 and $400 a week during the season. Remember what it was like when you were in college and there wasn't anything in the fridge other than a 12 pack of beer, a bottle of ketchup and mustard, and a jar of mayonnaise with a jar of peanut butter in the cabinet and a loaf of bread on the counter? I bet everybody that plays for the Asheville Tourists do. The average apartment rent in Asheville is $1362/month - that sure doesn't leave those guys much left to do a lot of grocery shopping with AFTER they pay their power and phone bills.