Around the Majors - 2022 Version

They are 6th in babip, but the braves are 8th

Braves lead the league in strikeouts, have the third-fewest walks and are 10th in team OBP. Mets have the second-fewest strikeouts, eighth in walks (meh), and second in team OBP.

Braves have the second-fewest sacrifice flies, Mets fifth most (31-23).

One interesting thing is the Mets have 777 LOB (third most), while the Braves have 701 LOB (10th).
 
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OK. They also have roughly 200 fewer strikeouts. If the Braves would do just a little more of that, there’d probably be some more chances for their luck on batted balls to even out.

The Mets, unlike years past, do not beat themselves. The Braves often do. We are 41-18 since the start of June, and I bet 12+ of those losses could have been avoided by the team playing smarter baseball.

41-18 is a .700 winning percentage. Are you seriously suggesting that they could play better than a 113 win pace if they simply “put the ball in play” more?

Jesus Christ, dude. The Braves are a great team. You don’t get to play at a historical pace simply by changing some things. The reason the Braves’ deficit is what it is is because the Braves played like ass for two months. That’s it. It’s not down to one little thing that they’re doing now, and it’s not supernatural.

It’s amazing that I have to explain just how well the Braves have been playing to somebody.
 
41-18 is a .700 winning percentage. Are you seriously suggesting that they could play better than a 113 win pace if they simply “put the ball in play” more?

Jesus Christ, dude. The Braves are a great team. You don’t get to play at a historical pace simply by changing some things. The reason the Braves’ deficit is what it is is because the Braves played like ass for two months. That’s it. It’s not down to one little thing that they’re doing now, and it’s not supernatural.

It’s amazing that I have to explain just how well the Braves have been playing to somebody.

Dude it’s something going around on the board. It’s like every team we play we are trash and they are superior and we’re scared of everybody and if FF were here we’d be undefeated and all that crap. If feels like we’re being punked by Mets fans and Freeman himself.
 
Dude it’s something going around on the board. It’s like every team we play we are trash and they are superior and we’re scared of everybody and if FF were here we’d be undefeated and all that crap. If feels like we’re being punked by Mets fans and Freeman himself.

I wouldn't say undefeated with FF... we'd probably have 7-8 losses, something like that
 
Dude it’s something going around on the board. It’s like every team we play we are trash and they are superior and we’re scared of everybody and if FF were here we’d be undefeated and all that crap. If feels like we’re being punked by Mets fans and Freeman himself.

It’s starting to sound like annoying Yankees fans in the middle of winning 95 games instead of 105.

This narrative that Freeman did anything other than take less money to play LA, which forced AA to move to the best Plan B he could find is a perfect example of delusional revisionist history.
 
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41-18 is a .700 winning percentage. Are you seriously suggesting that they could play better than a 113 win pace if they simply “put the ball in play” more?

Jesus Christ, dude. The Braves are a great team. You don’t get to play at a historical pace simply by changing some things. The reason the Braves’ deficit is what it is is because the Braves played like ass for two months. That’s it. It’s not down to one little thing that they’re doing now, and it’s not supernatural.

It’s amazing that I have to explain just how well the Braves have been playing to somebody.

I’m saying they are a very good, at times great team, and this stretch of 41-18 proves that. But they often do stupid **** to beat themselves, and it often happens when they are playing other good teams. They have wilted against the Dodgers and Mets.
 
It’s starting to sound like annoying Yankees fans in the middle of winning 95 games instead of 105.

This narrative that Freeman did anything other than take less money to play LA, which forced AA to move to the best Plan B he could find is a perfect example of delusional revisionist history.

Didn't he fire him agent for supposedly not giving him the braves' offer?
 
I’m saying they are a very good, at times great team, and this stretch of 41-18 proves that. But they often do stupid **** to beat themselves, and it often happens when they are playing other good teams. They have wilted against the Dodgers and Mets.

It happens to every single team. At the end of the year, your record is usually what it should be, give or take a few games. That’s why they play so many.
 
It happens to every single team. At the end of the year, your record is usually what it should be, give or take a few games. That’s why they play so many.

And right now we're below the Dodgers and Mets. 6-11 against them and it could be 9-8 or so if we played up to our capability. Championships are the expectation here now, and head to head, we play far below that level. But maybe, hopefully, it'll all be different again come October.
 
For some reason Fangraphs was defaulting to 2021 for me. The real numbers are similar. The Mets are 17th in EV and the Braves are 3rd. Mets are 20th in hard hit %, Braves are second. The Braves have hit 55 more HRs than the Mets have. That's half again as many as the Mets have hit.

Yet the Mets have scored only two fewer runs than the Braves.

The K numbers don't come close to making up for all the weak contact. The Mets are extremely lucky this year.

Mets are 3rd in OBP though. Braves are 15th. BABIP is basically no difference between us and them. They are also top 3 in K% (meaning lowest K%) while we are bottom 3.

So the Mets get on base a lot more than we do and put the ball in play a lot more than we do. Both are pretty critical to scoring runs, as you need players on base and/or putting balls in play to score runs. And they are among the best in the league at doing both of those. That isn't luck.
 
Mets are 3rd in OBP though. Braves are 15th. BABIP is basically no difference between us and them. They are also top 3 in K% (meaning lowest K%) while we are bottom 3.

So the Mets get on base a lot more than we do and put the ball in play a lot more than we do. Both are pretty critical to scoring runs, as you need players on base and/or putting balls in play to score runs. And they are among the best in the league at doing both of those. That isn't luck.

The question is how are they getting on base like that with their weak contact numbers? That's where they're getting lucky. Lots of low EV hits.

The Mets power numbers are also terrible. The Braves are obliterating them in terms of HRs. So they're scoring by stringing hits together. That's heavily reliant on luck, especially for a team not hitting the ball hard.
 
And right now we're below the Dodgers and Mets. 6-11 against them and it could be 9-8 or so if we played up to our capability. Championships are the expectation here now, and head to head, we play far below that level. But maybe, hopefully, it'll all be different again come October.

Well the Mets and Dodgers are probably better than we are overall. They've certainly been more healthy as a whole, which has helped them a lot. Acuna didn't play for nearly all the first month. We lost Albies for several months. Duvall is lost for the year. Rosario had the eye issue. The BP has had seen every one of our top guys from last year make at least 1 IL trip. We should feel fortunate to be in the position we are. And honestly, if it wasn't for Kyle Wright deciding he wanted to finally live up to his potential, and Harris excelling as a rookie, we'd probably be floating around .500 instead of 19 games over. 500.
 
The question is how are they getting on base like that with their weak contact numbers? That's where they're getting lucky. Lots of low EV hits.

The Mets power numbers are also terrible. The Braves are obliterating them in terms of HRs. So they're scoring by stringing hits together. That's heavily reliant on luck, especially for a team not hitting the ball hard.

Their power numbers aren't terrible. Their ISO is league average. They are probably a little lucky on BABIP, but it doesn't appear to be anything massive. Again, they get on base well and don't strikeout. That's a good recipe for scoring runs.
 
41-18 is a .700 winning percentage. Are you seriously suggesting that they could play better than a 113 win pace if they simply “put the ball in play” more?

Jesus Christ, dude. The Braves are a great team. You don’t get to play at a historical pace simply by changing some things. The reason the Braves’ deficit is what it is is because the Braves played like ass for two months. That’s it. It’s not down to one little thing that they’re doing now, and it’s not supernatural.

It’s amazing that I have to explain just how well the Braves have been playing to somebody.

I completely get the same feeling from having to deal with a group of long time - and FAR FROM "idiotic" old-school guys I have a text chain with. It's incredible to me (now) how EVERY single loss/mistake/error/etc. is such a big deal - so much so that I simply have to ignore the gripes and avoid getting into the deeper conversations/explanations when the team has a weekend like this. I get unbelievably frustrated because I've tried to explain the details to them MANY times, but they just can't seem to grasp that the important thing is the big picture. Then the fact that it took me what in hindsight was an incredibly long time to adjust the way I view things pops into my head and I hold my fingers (or bite my tongue as it were). I don't have nearly the grasp of the new metrics many here do, but realize I'm still incredibly advanced compared to the average fan - which is what these guys are. They're plenty intelligent, but may never even get to the point of "getting it" that I have - and I'm far behind many in that department.

What's unfortunate is that a lot of folks who DO understand let their frustrations push them to the point of drawing lines and dismissing those who don't as "idiots". Some people may never get it, but there's no chance those discussions will ever advance when they're simply dismissed rather than helped. We all need teachers at some point.
 
The question is how are they getting on base like that with their weak contact numbers? That's where they're getting lucky. Lots of low EV hits.

The Mets power numbers are also terrible. The Braves are obliterating them in terms of HRs. So they're scoring by stringing hits together. That's heavily reliant on luck, especially for a team not hitting the ball hard.
Mets are 8th in MLB in xWOBA. They are good, dude.
 
xSlug of 399. OPS should be around .718 as a team but are at .739 instead. A slightly better than average hitting team that is outperforming their peripherals.
 
I don't know if they lucky or not, but I do know the braves better win today if they want any shot at the east.
 
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