A's Puk Has Tommy John; Rockies' Pint to follow?

[rico43]

Another lesson (or two) about why drafting pitchers is a dicey thing. Braves took Anderson at No. 3 .... From ESPN and CBS Sports....

Touted Oakland Athletics left-hander A.J. Puk had Tommy John surgery Tuesday in Los Angeles and is expected to miss 12 to 18 months. Puk was shut down after experiencing biceps soreness that eventually went to his forearm. Dr. James Andrews recommended the elbow surgery.

Puk, 22, was the sixth overall pick in the 2016 draft out of the University of Florida. He struck out 184 batters in 125 innings split between Class A and Double-A last season, going 6-10 with a 4.03 ERA. He pitched well this spring, holding opposing hitters to a .184 average in 10⅔ innings, and he was thought to have a chance to make the club.

But he did not pitch again after giving up four runs in his last outing on March 15 and feeling tenderness in his left arm. Puk was ranked 13th in ESPN's Keith Law's list of top 100 prospects for 2018.

Riley Pint, the fourth overall pick and second pitcher taken was drafted by the Colorado Rockies. He was committed to Louisiana State University (LSU) to play college baseball, but signed with the Rockies. He spent his first professional season with the Grand Junction Rockies of the Rookie-level Pioneer League, where he posted a 1-5 record with a 5.35 ERA.[10] Pint spent 2017 with the Asheville Tourists of the Class A South Atlantic League, where he went 2-11 with a 5.42 ERA in 22 games started. He returned to Asheville in 2018, and injured his forearm in his first start after one-third of an inning.

 

[Enscheff]

I've been told that since pitchers get hurt and/or bust so often that it makes sense to draft even more of them. You know, so you have enough.

 

[ball4life32]

So Pint stayed in A ball and got lit up in his first start before getting hurt. How can you seriously even think this guy is a better prospect than Wentz or Wilson?

 

[smootness]

I've been told that since pitchers get hurt and/or bust so often that it makes sense to draft even more of them. You know, so you have enough.

There are 3 clear strategies:
1) Just draft in a balanced way. I would think most agree this is best.
2) Draft more pitchers because, due to attrition, you will always need a ton of them. You will need to either hit on your drafted hitters, or sign/trade for them later.
3) Draft more hitters because they are safer than pitchers. You will eventually need to either sign or trade for pitchers, who come with an elevated injury risk.

There's no easy answer. Acting as though acquiring as many pitchers as you can because of the attrition rate is a bad strategy is weird. Again, though, I would assume most would advocate for a balanced approach.

 

[striker42]

Man I wish Senzel has been there at 3. We'd be getting ready to promote him and Acuna together. Instead we're stuck hoping Anderson figures out how to hit the strikezone.

 

[Enscheff]

There are 3 clear strategies:
1) Just draft in a balanced way. I would think most agree this is best.
2) Draft more pitchers because, due to attrition, you will always need a ton of them. You will need to either hit on your drafted hitters, or sign/trade for them later.
3) Draft more hitters because they are safer than pitchers. You will eventually need to either sign or trade for pitchers, who come with an elevated injury risk.

There's no easy answer. Acting as though acquiring as many pitchers as you can because of the attrition rate is a bad strategy is weird. Again, though, I would assume most would advocate for a balanced approach.

The answer is BPA, period. Determining BPA is the hard part because teams have to properly assess risk and assign it a value.

We saw FG recently tweak how they assess pitcher risk when they unilaterally decreased the FV of all pitching prospects by half a grade to make their expected surplus value line up with hitters'. I fully expect teams to have similar valuation processes in place...some better than others.

Unfortunately, the Hart/Coppy FO didn't operate that way. They decided pitching was going to be the focus, and so it was.

 

[nsacpi]

The answer is BPA, period. Determining BPA is the hard part because teams have to properly assess risk and assign it a value.

We saw FG recently tweak how they assess pitcher risk when they unilaterally decreased the FV of all pitching prospects by half a grade to make their expected surplus value line up with hitters'. I fully expect teams to have similar valuation processes in place...some better than others.

Unfortunately, the Hart/Coppy FO didn't operate that way. They decided pitching was going to be the focus, and so it was.

tweaking pitcher assessment to take into account injury risk seems to me the way to go

the drum I beat with respect to the draft has to do with yield by segment

looking at Braves draft history a few conclusions jump out:

1) we have done best in the middle segment (rounds 4-10) with college pitchers.

2) In the early rounds outside the first round (2nd and third round and supplemental) we have done poorly with high school pitchers. We have taken a ton of them and the yield per pick for HS pitchers in that part of the draft has been worse than the yield for HS hitters, college pitchers and college hitters. We need to reduce the number of HS pitchers we take in that part of the draft.

3) In round 1 going with highest ceiling makes the most sense. I would add an important corollary which is when you are picking early (say top 5 and in some years top 10), you need to start looking at floor as well because all of the guys very early in the draft obviously have very high ceilings.

 

[thethe]

Who was the hitter that we passed over in the 2015/2016 draft? We aren't happy with the pitching accumulated? Have their been any hitters (saw Kingery in 2015) that have become top prospects that we wish we had?

 

[nsacpi]

Who was the hitter that we passed over in the 2015/2016 draft? We aren't happy with the pitching accumulated? Have their been any hitters (saw Kingery in 2015) that have become top prospects that we wish we had?

In 2016 I wanted Senzel (and I think the Braves did too). Can't criticize the Braves there given he went just ahead of our pick.

I do wonder about going Anderson, Wentz, Muller with our first three picks. Bo Bichette went in the second round that year after both Wentz and Muller. I liked Nolan Jones in that draft. He was also taken after both Wentz and Muller and is generally considered one of the Indians' top 10 prospects.

The 2015 draft I've liked from the get go and can't complain about.

 

[striker42]

Who was the hitter that we passed over in the 2015/2016 draft? We aren't happy with the pitching accumulated? Have their been any hitters (saw Kingery in 2015) that have become top prospects that we wish we had?

Kyle Lewis was the one a lot on here wanted. He got drafted by the Mariners at 11 and promptly blew out his knee. He got back on the field last year but probably still wasn't completely over his injury. This will be an important year for him.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

Kyle Lewis was the one a lot on here wanted. He got drafted by the Mariners at 11 and promptly blew out his knee. He got back on the field last year but probably still wasn't completely over his injury. This will be an important year for him.

Didn’t he go under again this year.

 

[Enscheff]

Kyle Lewis was the one a lot on here wanted. He got drafted by the Mariners at 11 and promptly blew out his knee. He got back on the field last year but probably still wasn't completely over his injury. This will be an important year for him.

I wanted Lewis bigly. It's a shame that freak injury will likely never allow us to see who was right.

I have a feeling that if his knee was going to bounce back, it would have already. I can't remember a professional athlete having this much knee trouble and ever coming back. They either go Adrian Petrerson and not miss a beat, or it ends their career.

 

[nsacpi]

Here's a list of HS pitchers we've taken in the second, third and supplemental rounds since the 2005 draft: Tarnok, Wentz, Muller, Fulenchek, Salazar, DeVall, Stovall, Spruill, Rasmus, Evarts, Rogers, Locke, Beau Jones, Lyman.

None of them have made it, except for Locke. Maybe Wentz will. But the return has just been awful. And it covers several regimes: different GMs, different scouting directors.

We spend more picks on HS pitchers than any other group in that part of the draft. And get the worst yield on HS pitchers. Think about that.

My theory is that the HS pitchers taken in that part of the draft don't have anywhere near the talent of the guys taken in the first round and have all of the same injury risks.



Within the other demographic groups we've had some good picks in those rounds: Wood, Simmons, Minter, Freeman, Kimbrel, and going a bit further back McCann and Saltalamacchia.

 

[jpx7]

Here's a list of HS pitchers we've taken in the second, third and supplemental rounds since the 2005 draft: Tarnok, Wentz, Muller, Fulenchek, Salazar, DeVall, Stoval, Spruill, Rasmus, Evarts, Rogers, Beau Jones, Lyman.

None of them have made it. Maybe Wentz will. But the return has just been awful. And it covers several regimes: different GMs, different scouting directors.

Pitchers be trippin.

 

[Southcack77]

The answer is BPA, period. Determining BPA is the hard part because teams have to properly assess risk and assign it a value.

We saw FG recently tweak how they assess pitcher risk when they unilaterally decreased the FV of all pitching prospects by half a grade to make their expected surplus value line up with hitters'. I fully expect teams to have similar valuation processes in place...some better than others.

Unfortunately, the Hart/Coppy FO didn't operate that way. They decided pitching was going to be the focus, and so it was.

I was about to suggest that that their strategy was linked to the situation in the minors as they found it --- that the organization was truly bereft, top to bottom, of pitching prospects.

But then I remembered that it was likewise bereft of many serious hitting prospects, though Albies was already thought to be better than Peraza by many at the time Peraza was dealt.

.....

Maybe it is just more like victims of the Depression never trusting the stock market again. The Braves ran out of pitching in some part due to injury and then realized they couldn't afford to fix to the problem. When we make changes, we often overreact to the problems of the last regime.

I don't know. they had thoughts about it. But they would not have drafted Anderson if Senzel had been available according to the organization after the draft...so some of it was circumstance.

 

[thethe]

Here's a list of HS pitchers we've taken in the second, third and supplemental rounds since the 2005 draft: Tarnok, Wentz, Muller, Fulenchek, Salazar, DeVall, Stovall, Spruill, Rasmus, Evarts, Rogers, Beau Jones, Lyman.

None of them have made it. Maybe Wentz will. But the return has just been awful. And it covers several regimes: different GMs, different scouting directors.

We spend more picks on HS pitchers than any other group in that part of the draft. And get the worst yield on HS pitchers. Think about that.

Not a good list. But so far the returns on Wentz are positive. Tarnok has a lot of good reports on him and Muller is a wait and see if the velocity increase is for real.

 

[Enscheff]

I was about to suggest that that their strategy was linked to the situation in the minors as they found it --- that the organization was truly bereft, top to bottom, of pitching prospects.

But then I remembered that it was likewise bereft of many serious ****ting prospects, though Albies was already thought to be better than Peraza by many at the time Peraza was dealt.

.....

Maybe it is just more like victims of the Depression never trusting the stock market again. The Braves ran out of pitching in some part due to injury and then realized they couldn't afford to fix to the problem. When we make changes, we often overreact to the problems of the last regime.

I don't know. they had thoughts about it. But they would not have drafted Anderson if Senzel had been available according to the organization after the draft...so some of it was circumstance.

The thought process went like this (it was not very in depth):

1. The Braves were good when they had Maddux/Glavine/Smoltz, therefore
2. The Braves need to get another Maddux/Glavine/Smoltz

All that talk about getting back to the "Braves Way" wasn't just lip service. They talked about stockpiling pitching constantly. Nobody outside the Braves FO thought it was a good idea other than pozzies. The most idiotic part of it was when they then complained about how hard it was to acquire controllable hitters...before splurging on HO.

The reality is the Braves were never really some elite pitcher factory they were made out to be. They drafted and developed many good players, and most of them were position players.

 

[Tapate50]

Here's a list of HS pitchers we've taken in the second, third and supplemental rounds since the 2005 draft: Tarnok, Wentz, Muller, Fulenchek, Salazar, DeVall, Stovall, Spruill, Rasmus, Evarts, Rogers, Locke, Beau Jones, Lyman.

None of them have made it, except for Locke. Maybe Wentz will. But the return has just been awful. And it covers several regimes: different GMs, different scouting directors.

We spend more picks on HS pitchers than any other group in that part of the draft. And get the worst yield on HS pitchers. Think about that.

My theory is that the HS pitchers taken in that part of the draft don't have anywhere near the talent of the guys taken in the first round and have all of the same injury risks.



Within the other demographic groups we've had some good picks in those rounds: Wood, Simmons, Minter, Freeman, Kimbrel, and going a bit further back McCann and Saltalamacchia.

That return is truly horrific. Wonder how it compares to other teams with that same qualification?

One thing we haven't really discussed of the HO trade... the ancillary pieces we got back were truly, truly a ball of **** goods that panned out to nothing, but were supposed to be decent pieces.

Not sure I trade with the Dodgers again other than the salary dump Kemp trade (which looks decent right now for them because McCarthys arm fell off and Kemp is healthy and hitting for them.

 

[nsacpi]

They drafted and developed many good players, and most of them were position players.

And often from draft positions outside the first round or modest international bonus money: Acuna, Albies, Simmons, Gattis, Freeman, McCann. Going further back I don't think Andruw Jones or Javy Lopez were big money signings.

 

[Southcack77]

And often from draft positions outside the first round or modest international bonus money: Acuna, Albies, Simmons, Gattis, Freeman, McCann. Going further back I don't think Andruw Jones or Javy Lopez were big money signings.

Big money signings historically tended to bomb for Atlanta, but they did as good a job of finding guys internationally as most.