At what point do we become an actual contender?

msstate7

msstate7

Well-known member
We have the best NL record (4th in mlb) with the best RD in nl (4th in mlb). Not sure how sustainable this since we were very fortunate with 3b production early, markakis having a career year, and somewhat volatile starting staff (McCarthy health risk, newcomb and soroka still really young). When do you consider it real? Who do you try to add if that happens and who are willing to part with to make it happen?

ETA - we have completed 26% of our schedule
 
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i feel like usually when teams are "pretenders," aka winning but in an unsustainable way, it's more obvious than it's been for us this season. for example, their RD will be either low or in the negatives, lots of 1-run wins, a guy or a few playing way above their heads.

our pitching has been lucky and is due some regression i think (but maybe not if the younger guys come in and pitch well). but other than that, it seems like a lot of it is legit. we're legit wild card contenders. division? i'm not sure.
 
Tough schedule and lack of home games is a good indicator moving forward. I don't think we're too fluky per the metrics.

I think the bp is better than most think it is. I think Weigel could be an option. I think there are a lot of arms in the system that could be good pen guys.

I do not believe in Neck doing this long term.
I do not believe in 3B.

For us to be real we would need a real 3B and starters that show they can go 6-7 innings instead of 5.

And by contender I mean 80 something wins and a chance at a playoff game. Not WS. I think we have too many really young guys in their first year to be real WS contenders.
 
The biggest glaring need for us has to be the bullpen. How many games have they either blown for us this season, or gave up too many runs for us to have a chance to come back.....I know the 2 against Chicago and the 1 in Colorado early....those are 3 games that should be wins....
 
This team continues to impress me. That don’t get rattled. They expect to win now. I think Soroka will improve. I think Gohard will get back and take anyone who struggles spot. I think we will get an upgrade at 3rd. I also believe Swanson is going to impress
 
I think our offense is a bit overrated. Ozzie has some legitimate concerns that are at the moment masked by some pretty ridiculous flyball luck. Nick is obviously playing way above his head. Acuna is also bound to have some real ups and downs as a 20 year old. I’m also pessimistic that we have any viable internal solutions to 3B; I like Camargo as a utility player (and he’s our best current option), but I feel like he’s a bit exposed in a full time role. The real keys are Dansby and Ender. If they can at least be average (100 wRC+) then our lineup will be deep.

The flip side - I think the pitching is actually quite underrated. We can go about 7-8 starters deep with guys that can strike people out. I love that we are using Gohara our of the bullpen in 2-3 inning spurts and I wouldn’t mind doing that more with Soroka, Fried, Allard, and maybe even Touki later on to keep guys fresh. It also is a great way to showcase guys for trades.

The Braves need a couple more pieces. I wish we could have signed Frazier, but he may well end up being a guy we can trade for once the Mets fall out. Beltre seems like he would be a great pickup both as a player and a mentor to our younger Latin players like Ozzie and Acuna.

That’s a lot of words, so more succinctly the fact that we can do exercises like these with a straight face makes a legit contender. This team is absolutely more talented than those Royals and Giants teams that won World Series.
 
Lol the Nats most likely have already started that hot fire streak and unfortunately unless the Dodgers get their sh*t together the only good team they're going to face for a while is us.
 
msstate7 said:
We have the best NL record (4th in mlb) with the best RD in nl (4th in mlb). Not sure how sustainable this since we were very fortunate with 3b production early, markakis having a career year, and somewhat volatile starting staff (McCarthy health risk, newcomb and soroka still really young). When do you consider it real? Who do you try to add if that happens and who are willing to part with to make it happen?

ETA - we have completed 26% of our schedule
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All-star break.

The Braves have not been lucky so far but the main issue is sustainability.

3B is a big concern going forward and 1 more legit BP arm would help as well.
 
For this team to be a contender the starting pitching has to be real. That’s the big surprise so far, at least to me, that Teheran, Newcomb, Folty, and really McCarthy have been pretty good.

I would feel terrible about any of those guys in a playoff matchup but maybe I shouldn’t.
 
thewupk said:
All-star break.

The Braves have not been lucky so far but the main issue is sustainability.

3B is a big concern going forward and 1 more legit BP arm would help as well.
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mentioned this in another thread, but is 3B a "big" concern? even if our production is below replacement level, if we're getting above every where else, isn't that OK?
 
Super said:
mentioned this in another thread, but is 3B a "big" concern? even if our production is below replacement level, if we're getting above every where else, isn't that OK?
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I see what you mean, but what happens when injuries at these other positions inevitably start happening? Fixing 3B is as much about future proofing the team as it is improving the lineup as is.
 
chop2chip said:
I see what you mean, but what happens when injuries at these other positions inevitably start happening? Fixing 3B is as much about future proofing the team as it is improving the lineup as is.
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very true. have to consider injuries, of which we haven't had a ton.
 
Super said:
mentioned this in another thread, but is 3B a "big" concern? even if our production is below replacement level, if we're getting above every where else, isn't that OK?
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if you are a contender you want to upgrade at the deadline...and third is the obvious place
 
Super said:
mentioned this in another thread, but is 3B a "big" concern? even if our production is below replacement level, if we're getting above every where else, isn't that OK?
Click to expand...

Anytime you have a position that's projected to be a blackhole it's going to be a concern. I suspect going forward the Braves are likely to get replacement level production or worse from there. I'm just not a believer in any of the options we currently have. I also suspect Neck to regress from this point through the end of the season. Possibly Albies as well. And I don't think we are truly sold on Swanson being a legit hitter as well for the rest of the season. So while 3B may not be an issue currently if the rest of the team is firing on all cylinders it certainly will be if any/all of those things happen. If the Braves are contendors and we leave that pposition a mess with the ability for a short term fix then it's really inexcusable.
 
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