Attrition Rates for Aces

nsacpi

nsacpi

Expects Yuge Games
Just looking at recent Cy Young award winners we have:

R.A. Dickey winning in 2012 and seeing his FIP rise from 3.27 to 4.58.

Johan Santana winning in 2004 and 2006 with the Twins, signing the big contract with the Mets and we know the rest of that story.

Tim Lincecum winning in 2008 and 2009 with FIPs of 2.62 and 2.34 and then following up in the next four years with FIPs of 3.15, 3.17, 4.18 and 3.74.

Roy Halladay winning in 2010 and following up with an even better 2011, then injury and oblivion.

Other recent Cy Young winners that provide cautionary tales include Barry Zito, Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb and Chris Carpenter.

If you look at the pitchers who were in the Top 25 in WAR in 2012, it would include the following who saw substantial declines in production in 2013: Gio Gonzalez, CC Sabathia, Johnny Cueto, R.A. Dickey, Wade Miley, Jake Peavy, Matt Cain, Matt Harrison, Josh Johnson, Kyle Lohse, Jarrod Parker.

Let's not fool ourselves. This is one risky asset class.
 
Not following what this thread is about. Is there a common theme here? Each situation is different. Dickey had to adjust a new team (one that wasn't built properly) and a new league. Santana's had a significant injury history. Lincecum lost velocity.

Zito is old news. Bad contract, but they get *some* redemption.

When did Matt Harrison become an ace? Of Lohse and Gonzales for that matter.
 
Knucksie said:
Not following what this thread is about. Is there a common theme here? Each situation is different. Dickey had to adjust a new team (one that wasn't built properly) and a new league. Santana's had a significant injury history. Lincecum lost velocity.

Zito is old news. Bad contract, but they get *some* redemption.

When did Matt Harrison become an ace? Of Lohse and Gonzales for that matter.
Click to expand...

Harrison, Lohse etc were mentioned as being in the Top 25 for pitcher's WAR in 2012.

You're right that each case is different. The common denominator is significant decline. Some due to injury. Some due to other reasons. It is like a portfolio of stocks. They all go up and down for different reasons. My point has to do with overall riskiness of significant performance decline of top pitchers, whether they be called aces or some other word.
 
It's a very legitimate point. I think the Braves should only get an Ace if they can do so without giving up too much. With that in mind we are in a unique position where we could give up a current #2 starter and more if Wren has that desire. That way we wouldn't have to give up too much of the future.
 
weso1 said:
With that in mind we are in a unique position where we could give up a current #2 starter and more if Wren has that desire.
Click to expand...

Ideally that would be how you structure a trade like that. Sort of like the Justin Upton trade, where the main piece going the other way was an established major league player--Prado. That way you avoid mortgaging the future.

I have my doubts though that the Rays would approach things in the same way the Diamondbacks did. It has more to do what what the other GM wants than what Wren has the desire to do. If they are open to it, a trade where Minor or Medlen was the main piece going back their way would be something worth looking at.
 
weso1 said:
It's a very legitimate point. I think the Braves should only get an Ace if they can do so without giving up too much. With that in mind we are in a unique position where we could give up a current #2 starter and more if Wren has that desire. That way we wouldn't have to give up too much of the future.
Click to expand...

Doubtful that anybody thinks that the Braves are going to flirt with somebody, who currently or will eventually cost $20 million. Other teams can pay that to Cliff Lee or Greinke. The Dodgers are one of the few teams that can afford it. The Phillies, although they certainly like having Lee, would probably prefer some salary relief with the WS door now closed on them.

Was actually going to open up another thread to share this, but it works within the context of this one. This article appeared in the print edition of my hometown newspaper. It revisits the Dodgers-Red Sox trade.

http://www.buffalonews.com/sports/inside-baseball/deal-with-dodgers-opened-door-for-red-sox-20131103

But the Dodgers have already made it clear they’re not in the Robinson Cano sweepstakes because at some point, you can’t just spend-spend-spend because you’ll also spend millions in luxury taxes. The Red Sox needed to stay under the $178 million threshold to trigger the tax, just like the Yankees want to stay under $189 million for 2014 (and are thus desperate for Alex Rodriguez’s suspension to stand).

With the big-money, low-character guys gone to Los Angeles, what did Cherington do? He spent the winter adding the likes of Shane Victorino, Mike Napoli, Stephen Drew, Koji Uehara, Jonny Gomes, David Ross and Ryan Dempster. All except Dempster were Fall Classic heroes. Pretty amazing.

Let’s not forget that Cherington got roasted, and perhaps deservedly so, for Victorino’s three-year, $39 million deal. But Cherington clearly wanted winning players. Victorino was on back-to-back World Series teams in Philadelphia. Gomes had been on three division champions, four playoff teams and a World Series team (the ‘08 Rays) in the last five years. Napoli had played in the postseason with Anaheim and Texas and would have been the ’11 Series MVP if not for the Rangers’ collapse in St. Louis. That matters.
Click to expand...

Being from a winning environment is about "intangibles." Character and winning attitude can't be measured. It's what separates them from losers, like Nick Swisher.

Doubt really expects Wren to open up the bank vaults or back a truck of prospects up to make this "ace" acquisition. However, his responsibility is to improve the team. Some of the characteristics, he will be seeking is veteran starter, preferably having pitched in the post season. That's why it wouldn't suprise me if he inquires about Lohse again. He may have already had thoughts about Burnett, but it sounds as if it's Pittsburgh or retirement for him. These guys may not fit the exact description of "ace" but they would help to make the other pitchers better from less stress on the rotation from inexperience and lack of leadership.
 
The intangibles angle is an interesting one. I think it would be interesting to have a list of guys who are "winners" and one of the "losers", preferably ex-ante not ex-post.

Let me start with a few I'm curious about.

Josh Johnson--winner or loser? or unknown?

Eric Chavez--winner or loser? or unknown?

Eric O'Flaherty--winner or loser? or unknown?

Tim Hudson--winner or loser? or unknown?

Brian McCann--winner or loser? or unknown?
 
Braves are not going to need money to fill second base with TLS. They need to gamble on Johnson. At some point he should get back to being an ace and next year might very well be that year. Give him 1 year 10 million with a team option for another 10 million.
 
thethe said:
Braves are not going to need money to fill second base with TLS. They need to gamble on Johnson. At some point he should get back to being an ace and next year might very well be that year. Give him 1 year 10 million with a team option for another 10 million.
Click to expand...

Im sure glad you are nowhere close to my piggy bank.
 
thethe said:
Braves are not going to need money to fill second base with TLS. They need to gamble on Johnson. At some point he should get back to being an ace and next year might very well be that year. Give him 1 year 10 million with a team option for another 10 million.
Click to expand...

Josh Johnson is done. Him getting back to "Ace" status is as good as Santana's chance. I wouldn't mind gambling on Johnson as I do have some hope he can become a good SP again but not for 10/per.
 
Johnson had some minor surgery on his elbow to clean up some bone chips I believe. If he was pitching with that last season, then maybe there is a chance he could rebound next season. The fact that his agent is looking for a one-year deal so he can rebuild his value is also an indication that he might be a good gamble. But I'm not sure if he is a winner or loser or something else.
 
thethe said:
Braves are not going to need money to fill second base with TLS. They need to gamble on Johnson. At some point he should get back to being an ace and next year might very well be that year. Give him 1 year 10 million with a team option for another 10 million.
Click to expand...

I agree that JJ may be a good gamble, and is probably the most realistic chance the Braves have at acquiring an Ace from outside the organization. If Wren does go cheap at 2B then it makes sense to blow the rest of the 2014 budget on a pitcher with Ace upside.

Realistically, JJ wouldn't have to make 30+ starts to be worth $10M to this team as it is currently constructed. He needs to be ready and full strength by October to make an impact in the playoffs. So baby him along during the regular season, and unleash him when it really counts.
 
Enscheff said:
I agree that JJ may be a good gamble, and is probably the most realistic chance the Braves have at acquiring an Ace from outside the organization. If Wren does go cheap at 2B then it makes sense to blow the rest of the 2014 budget on a pitcher with Ace upside.

Realistically, JJ wouldn't have to make 30+ starts to be worth $10M to this team as it is currently constructed. He needs to be ready and full strength by October to make an impact in the playoffs. So baby him along during the regular season, and unleash him when it really counts.
Click to expand...

When you say, "blow the rest of the 2014 budget," I assume you mean after some serious extensions?
 
JohnAdcox said:
When you say, "blow the rest of the 2014 budget," I assume you mean after some serious extensions?
Click to expand...

Extensions aren't going to make the roster any more expensive in 2014 than going to year to year. Those contracts always pay estimates of the arbitration salaries and then also buy out 1-2 FA years. I can't even think of an example of a front loaded extension that pays a guy more during his arb years than he likely would have made anyways.

If Wren goes cheap at 2B there will be money to burn for 2014. Might as well take a shot on someone like JJ on a 1 year deal. He is the type of pitcher that could win 2 games in a playoff series.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top