striker42
Well-known member
The Braves have lost 4 in a row and it has seemed like they were incredibly unlucky every night so I decided to look at the EVs over this span. I looked at all of the balls with EVs over 100 MPH and all the balls with EVs under 80 MPH.
Here's how the 100+ MPHs break down:
Braves- 33 balls, 22 hits, 11 outs, .667 BA
Opponents- 31 balls, 20 hits, 11 outs, .645 BA
So it's pretty close. Similar number of crushed balls with almost identical results.
So now let's look at balls put in play under 80 MPH:
Braves- 20 balls, 0 hits, 20 outs, .000 BA
Opponents- 31 balls, 12 hits, 19 outs (including 3 sac bunts), .429 BA
Over the last 4 games there's been very little difference in luck in hard hit balls. Both the Braves and their opponents are benefitting roughly the same. The big difference has been in weak contact. The Braves have 0 hits on balls under 80 MPH. 0!!!! While our opponents have 12. A .429 BA on balls under 80 MPH is just insane!
So we aren't crazy. The Braves have gotten almost no lucky hits while our opponents are averaging 3 lucky hits a game. Many of those hits have resulted in runs as well. If you normalize just the lucky hits down to a .200 BA for both teams, our opponents would lose 6 hits and the Braves would gain 4.
Considering the scores, these soft, lucky hits have been the difference between going 0-4 and 3-1. If it wasn't for astonishingly bad luck, we'd be 4-1 since the break instead of 1-4.
Here's how the 100+ MPHs break down:
Braves- 33 balls, 22 hits, 11 outs, .667 BA
Opponents- 31 balls, 20 hits, 11 outs, .645 BA
So it's pretty close. Similar number of crushed balls with almost identical results.
So now let's look at balls put in play under 80 MPH:
Braves- 20 balls, 0 hits, 20 outs, .000 BA
Opponents- 31 balls, 12 hits, 19 outs (including 3 sac bunts), .429 BA
Over the last 4 games there's been very little difference in luck in hard hit balls. Both the Braves and their opponents are benefitting roughly the same. The big difference has been in weak contact. The Braves have 0 hits on balls under 80 MPH. 0!!!! While our opponents have 12. A .429 BA on balls under 80 MPH is just insane!
So we aren't crazy. The Braves have gotten almost no lucky hits while our opponents are averaging 3 lucky hits a game. Many of those hits have resulted in runs as well. If you normalize just the lucky hits down to a .200 BA for both teams, our opponents would lose 6 hits and the Braves would gain 4.
Considering the scores, these soft, lucky hits have been the difference between going 0-4 and 3-1. If it wasn't for astonishingly bad luck, we'd be 4-1 since the break instead of 1-4.
