BA's Top 10 Prospects

[bravesfanMatt]

It would be quite a turnaround for this FO to go for a guy like Soler with a 30% strikeout rate.

I am so indifferent on this 'trade'. I think I am leaning to no, unless there is more than Soler. A young controlled pitcher who has a history of success is more valuable than a young hitter who hasn't. I know he killed in the minors.. but that doesn't always equate. What makes me indifferent is the fact that I know we are going to have to start trading pitching at some point.. I just hope the return for a Julio type pitcher is more than just Soler. I would prefer Julio/Maybin for Soler and another top prospect. But I don't see Cubs wanting Maybin personally.

 

[Enscheff]

Would love to see that deal, providing that the Braves would then go after one of the premium pitchers in free agency.

If a large portion of the offense came from Olivera and Soler (who are cheap at a combined ~$10M per year) then, and only then, it might make some tiny little bit of sense to go after a high priced guy like Price to plug into the rotation.

I still don't think the chances of signing Price are more than 1%, even if Teheran is traded.

 

[Enscheff]

I am so indifferent on this 'trade'. I think I am leaning to no, unless there is more than Soler. A young controlled pitcher who has a history of success is more valuable than a young hitter who hasn't. I know he killed in the minors.. but that doesn't always equate. What makes me indifferent is the fact that I know we are going to have to start trading pitching at some point.. I just hope the return for a Julio type pitcher is more than just Soler. I would prefer Julio/Maybin for Soler and another top prospect. But I don't see Cubs wanting Maybin personally.

The Cubs could also put Castro and Baez on the trade block. With the way hitters, and especially young hitters, are valued compared to pitching, I think Soler is actually worth more than Teheran. Who knows though, maybe the trade would have to be expanded one way or the other.

One thing is for sure however, it is going to cost a LOT in pitching talent to bring in a young hitter with middle of the order potential, no matter who that hitter ends up being. A single year of Heyward was "worth" 4 years of Miller, a single year of JUp cost the 7th player taken in the 2012 draft, and Olivera cost the Braves a young controlable MOR guy in Alex Wood. Look at what the Mets gave up for a few months of Cespedes. The price for bats is very steep.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

One thing is for sure however, it is going to cost a LOT in pitching talent to bring in a young hitter with middle of the order potential, no matter who that hitter ends up being. A single year of Heyward was "worth" 4 years of Miller, a single year of JUp cost the 7th player taken in the 2012 draft, and Olivera cost the Braves a young controlable MOR guy in Alex Wood. Look at what the Mets gave up for a few months of Cespedes. The price for bats is very steep.

All of those guys are proven hitters or in Case of Jason, proven all around good player. Soler hit .262 with a BaBip of .360+ and a 30% K this year. Those numbers are not great and could be seen as possible red flags. Julio just finished his 3rd full season where he has pitched to almost to a 200 inning average, around a 3 ERA with a almost 8 K per 9 innings.

sure young middle of order bats can be expensive.. but for a team not ready to contend, I am not ready to just trade a #2 type pitcher for the first woody that comes along. Soler Julio at this point.. will he.. that is the question a GM will need to ask himself.

 

[Enscheff]

The Baseball America prospect lists have begun. The full article is subscription-only, but the top 10 list is not:

1. Hector Olivera, 3B

2. Kolby Allard, LHP

3. Ozzie Albies, SS

4. Touki Toussaint, RHP

5. Austin Riley, 3B

6. Max Fried, LHP

7. Mallex Smith, OF

8. Mike Soroka, RHP

9. Braxton Davidson, OF

10. Lucas Sims, RHP

They also did a Q/A chat with Ballew.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/atlanta-braves-top-10-prospects-chat/

Some of the most interesting quotes, in my opinion:

On Sims' curve being rated higher than Touki's:

"Sims throws his curveball for strikes with much more consistency. It’s also an outstanding pitch, much like that of Toussaint, but Lucas has much better control and command of the offering at this point."

On the type of hitter Riley can become:

"The higher levels will be more difficult, but I can see him hitting .280 while flirting with 30 home runs annually. He’ll open the 2016 season at Rome but projecting him to continue to rise at his current rate is not realistic. Still, he’s an exciting a young hitter as the Braves have had in a long, long time."

On Olivera's impact next year:

"I believe he will have a significant impact in the lineup and play solid defense, at least for the next two or three years. I don’t see huge power numbers for him but he is definitely the best third baseman the Braves have had since Chipper was in his prime."

On Mauricio Cabrera and his control problems:

"That’s the million dollar question. Cabrera’s arm strength has gotten stronger of late, topping out at 104 mph during instructional league."

On potential Aces in the Braves system (keep in mind his definition of "Ace" meant there were only 10 in 2015):

"There are so few true number one guys in the big leagues. In 2015, for example, there were no more than 10 true number one guys. With that said, Allard and Toussaint have the raw ability that many aces tend to possess. Fried, Soroka and Sims aren’t far behind and could be at worst outstanding number twos if they continue to develop. Rarely do we see a situation like the current Mets with deGrom, Syndergaard and Harvey and even Matz, but the Braves’ guys have the same type of potential. Granted, potential does not always lead to reality, but it is an intriguing situation."

On Mallex and Albies hitting at the top of the order:

"An Albies and Mallex Smith in the same lineup would give the Braves their best one-two punch in terms of speed since possibly Otis Nixon and Deion Sanders, only Smith and Albies could prove to be better all-around players over the long haul. I know that’s a bold prediction but that’s the type of talent the Braves have headed toward Atlanta."

 

[DirkPiggler]

All of those guys are proven hitters or in Case of Jason, proven all around good player. Soler hit .262 with a BaBip of .360+ and a 30% K this year. Those numbers are not great and could be seen as possible red flags. Julio just finished his 3rd full season where he has pitched to almost to a 200 inning average, around a 3 ERA with a almost 8 K per 9 innings.

sure young middle of order bats can be expensive.. but for a team not ready to contend, I am not ready to just trade a #2 type pitcher for the first woody that comes along. Soler Julio at this point.. will he.. that is the question a GM will need to ask himself.

Soler's 2015 wasn't all that great, but it wasn't terrible for a 22 year old either. His minor league numbers are impressive. To equate him with Teheran at this point requires a fair amount of projection though. This is an area where the team would just have to trust its scouts. And as fans, we just have to hope like hell they are right.

 

[Hudson2]

It would definately depend on price. If Baez is available then I'd try to expand the deal to get both. With the FA crop of pitchers this year we could make up for losing Teheran with somebody like Leake.

 

[50PoundHead]

http://chicago.suntimes.com/sports/7/71/1039118/expect-arms-race-cubs-hunt-octobers

The Cubs love Teheran, and the Braves love Soler. I wouldn't be shocked to see a swap involving those two guys this offseason.

The Braves would fill out the rotation with FA fill ins until the young guys are ready.

I would need a lot more than Soler to do that deal.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the Cubs aggressively shop Castro. I think the Cubs will really be active during the off-season. Anyone not in their young core and long-term commitments could be moved. They have some really interesting players that might be available.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

Soler's 2015 wasn't all that great, but it wasn't terrible for a 22 year old either. His minor league numbers are impressive. To equate him with Teheran at this point requires a fair amount of projection though. This is an area where the team would just have to trust its scouts. And as fans, we just have to hope like hell they are right.

That is what I was saying earlier, when I was indifferent. Personally, right now, no way do I do that deal straight up.. but if the scouts think Soler will become something special, then I am fine.. We gambled with Woody.. I am not sure I have the balls to gamble with Julio too.

and Hudson.. I don't see any chance we would get Baez is added.. We would have to add a piece as well. IMO..
Also Julio > Leake, but Leake, Soler and Baez much greater than Julio..so I see your point..

 

[Hudson2]

Yeah Matt I meant us adding to it to get Baez. We would have to add a few more good pieces but he's young and super talented and what I hope we go after.

 

[Enscheff]

Yeah Matt I meant us adding to it to get Baez. We would have to add a few more good pieces but he's young and super talented and what I hope we go after.

To get both Baez and Soler I think the Braves would have to be a one stop shop that fixes the Cubs' rotation and their BP. I'm guessing the package from Atlanta would have to start with Viz and Teheran. That would be a huge blow to the pitching staff, but adding that much cheap offensive talent would really help.

Having said that, I think there is a decent possibility the Braves trade for 1 young guy like Soler or Baez or Susac, but I don't think they will be willing to cough up enough pitching talent to acquire 2 such offensive talents.

 

[Enscheff]

One interesting thing is Starlin Castro and the $40M he is owed through the 2019 season. If the Braves took Castro plus Soler for Teheran, that would free up money for the Cubs to sign another big time pitcher. Castro could play 2B until Albies is ready. Just a thought.

 

[Hudson2]

I like Viz as much as the next guy but with his injury history and didn't give up much to acquire him, I'd give him up if it meant adding those 2. With Grilli and Shae coming back we are getting 2 big bp pieces back. We need to sign 2 more bp pieces in my opinion bc our bullpen was pretty bad. Looking long term Baez and Soler would make a bigger impact then Viz ever would. I think the team goal is to get back to .500 next year or just above then really improve next offseason going into the new stadium.

 

[Hudson2]

Castro is interesting but the Cubs would definately have to eat cash.

 

[nsacpi]

Also the sample is too small to draw firm conclusions, Soler's defensive metrics are also cause for concern.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

I like Viz as much as the next guy but with his injury history and didn't give up much to acquire him, I'd give him up if it meant adding those 2. With Grilli and Shae coming back we are getting 2 big bp pieces back. We need to sign 2 more bp pieces in my opinion bc our bullpen was pretty bad. Looking long term Baez and Soler would make a bigger impact then Viz ever would. I think the team goal is to get back to .500 next year or just above then really improve next offseason going into the new stadium.

As much as I want good young hitters.. more so than spending bank on FA hitters.. I would not want to give up Viz and Julio for two prospects that haven't proven anything in the Majors. Soler we know has a K% of 30.. Baez, albeit a smaller sample size, is at 38% or 30% this year... you don't want to look at last years numbers..YIKES.... Again, I know they are young.. but a proven pitcher and a future closer for two unproven guys.. too much of a gamble IMO..

 

[Enscheff]

As much as I want good young hitters.. more so than spending bank on FA hitters.. I would not want to give up Viz and Julio for two prospects that haven't proven anything in the Majors. Soler we know has a K% of 30.. Baez, albeit a smaller sample size, is at 38% or 30% this year... you don't want to look at last years numbers..YIKES.... Again, I know they are young.. but a proven pitcher and a future closer for two unproven guys.. too much of a gamble IMO..

I think folks have a serious misunderstanding about how these hitters are going to be acquired. Very few young hitters are available, and the ones that are available aren't going to be perfect finished products.

 

[Enscheff]

Castro is interesting but the Cubs would definately have to eat cash.

They will probably pair Castro with Soler or Baez specifically so they don't have to eat any cash, and can still get a good pitcher in return.

 

[zitothebrave]

As much as I want good young hitters.. more so than spending bank on FA hitters.. I would not want to give up Viz and Julio for two prospects that haven't proven anything in the Majors. Soler we know has a K% of 30.. Baez, albeit a smaller sample size, is at 38% or 30% this year... you don't want to look at last years numbers..YIKES.... Again, I know they are young.. but a proven pitcher and a future closer for two unproven guys.. too much of a gamble IMO..

Your'e right for your concern Baez had a K rate in the minors of 25.4%, Soler is a more respectable 17.1 but neither are confidence instilling.

Both are very very risky players.

 

[Tapate50]

They also did a Q/A chat with Ballew.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/atlanta-braves-top-10-prospects-chat/

Some of the most interesting quotes, in my opinion:

On Sims' curve being rated higher than Touki's:

"Sims throws his curveball for strikes with much more consistency. It’s also an outstanding pitch, much like that of Toussaint, but Lucas has much better control and command of the offering at this point."

On the type of hitter Riley can become:

"The higher levels will be more difficult, but I can see him hitting .280 while flirting with 30 home runs annually. He’ll open the 2016 season at Rome but projecting him to continue to rise at his current rate is not realistic. Still, he’s an exciting a young hitter as the Braves have had in a long, long time."

On Olivera's impact next year:

"I believe he will have a significant impact in the lineup and play solid defense, at least for the next two or three years. I don’t see huge power numbers for him but he is definitely the best third baseman the Braves have had since Chipper was in his prime."

On Mauricio Cabrera and his control problems:

"That’s the million dollar question. Cabrera’s arm strength has gotten stronger of late, topping out at 104 mph during instructional league."

On potential Aces in the Braves system (keep in mind his definition of "Ace" meant there were only 10 in 2015):

"There are so few true number one guys in the big leagues. In 2015, for example, there were no more than 10 true number one guys. With that said, Allard and Toussaint have the raw ability that many aces tend to possess. Fried, Soroka and Sims aren’t far behind and could be at worst outstanding number twos if they continue to develop. Rarely do we see a situation like the current Mets with deGrom, Syndergaard and Harvey and even Matz, but the Braves’ guys have the same type of potential. Granted, potential does not always lead to reality, but it is an intriguing situation."

On Mallex and Albies hitting at the top of the order:

"An Albies and Mallex Smith in the same lineup would give the Braves their best one-two punch in terms of speed since possibly Otis Nixon and Deion Sanders, only Smith and Albies could prove to be better all-around players over the long haul. I know that’s a bold prediction but that’s the type of talent the Braves have headed toward Atlanta."

Holy Moly