Baseball Prospectus Top 101 Prospects

[bravos4evr]

I wanted Lewis too, but the strategy used by the Braves was hardly "signability" it was an attempt to get as many high upside picks as they could due to the unknowns of young pitching.

I wanted a bat, but their method was hardly some bad thing.

 

[Enscheff]

I wanted Lewis too, but the strategy used by the Braves was hardly "signability" it was an attempt to get as many high upside picks as they could due to the unknowns of young pitching.

I wanted a bat, but their method was hardly some bad thing.

I didn't say it was a bad thing. I said past history tells us the Braves are not likely to draft a player at #5 that is more highly rated than whoever the ChiSox or Yankees take with their first pick. Therefore, saying the Braves #5 pick will improve the system more than the Sox or Yank's first pick is illogical, and probably false.

Once again, folks are misunderstanding the point being made, and are building straw man arguments in an attempt to make a point that isn't actually counter to the original point.

Debate 101...if you want to counter my point, you either have to argue that Anderson is more valuable than many of the picks after him, or that the Braves will switch gears and choose BPA at #5. I don't see any evidence that could support either of those 2 counter points.

 

[Managuarantano's Volunteers]

I think the latter point may be true despite lack of evidence. If we don't acquire more picks, I doubt we sign signability picks just to reach for a guy in the second round.

 

[Enscheff]

I think the latter point may be true despite lack of evidence. If we don't acquire more picks, I doubt we sign signability picks just to reach for a guy in the second round.

I hope so. I hope the Braves get someone like Adell, Greene, or the biggest, baddest, ugliest, meanest college pitcher available.

 

[Oklahomabrave]

I didn't say it was a bad thing. I said past history tells us the Braves are not likely to draft a player at #5 that is more highly rated than whoever the ChiSox or Yankees take with their first pick. Therefore, saying the Braves #5 pick will improve the system more than the Sox or Yank's first pick is illogical, and probably false.

Once again, folks are misunderstanding the point being made, and are building straw man arguments in an attempt to make a point that isn't actually counter to the original point.

Debate 101...if you want to counter my point, you either have to argue that Anderson is more valuable than many of the picks after him, or that the Braves will switch gears and choose BPA at #5. I don't see any evidence that could support either of those 2 counter points.

Maybe I'm not remembering correctly but didn't they take the BPA the year before? Allard was an overslot guy. I really believe that they drafted to the strength of the draft, which in 2016 was HS pitching with a lot of guys that had first round talent and not a lot of separation. This year, so far at least, the reports are the top 5-7 are much stronger than guys in that range last year. I think the braves will draft based on the strength of this draft, but fully acknowledge I could be wrong.

 

[Enscheff]

Maybe I'm not remembering correctly but didn't they take the BPA the year before? Allard was an overslot guy. I really believe that they drafted to the strength of the draft, which in 2016 was HS pitching with a lot of guys that had first round talent and not a lot of separation. This year, so far at least, the reports are the top 5-7 are much stronger than guys in that range last year. I think the braves will draft based on the strength of this draft, but fully acknowledge I could be wrong.

Allard was the 14th pick, and signed for $3,042,000, about $200K above the recommended pool value. He was not some huge over-slot guy. The Braves rolled the dice on a pitcher with injury concerns when they drafted Allard, which is another thing they have shown a willingness to do during this rebuild.

Recent draft history has shown us that guys like Groome who folks claim to be signability problems either sign anyways at near slot value, or go back into the draft and see their stock fall dramatically the next year like Appel and that other pitcher I am forgetting.

If the Braves are paying attention, they should realize they need to be drafting BPA and signing these guys to a deal near slot value. If the kid doesn't sign, the kid doesn't sign...good riddance. Use the same pick next year on a kid that wants to be a professional baseball player. Enough of this quantity over quality nonsense where they spread the money around.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

Not enough data to say Anderson is better than most guys. But pint was dreadful. Ray was worse. Anderson was excellent outside of two bad games if I am remembering. I could make an arguement for Anderson with a few of those names if I needed to. I also think the new CBA and pick will change the way they think. It is way too hard to play the overslot game when your 2nd pick is in the 40s. Unless they get another pick. BPA is going to be their play.

 

[bravos4evr]

I didn't say it was a bad thing. I said past history tells us the Braves are not likely to draft a player at #5 that is more highly rated than whoever the ChiSox or Yankees take with their first pick. Therefore, saying the Braves #5 pick will improve the system more than the Sox or Yank's first pick is illogical, and probably false.

Once again, folks are misunderstanding the point being made, and are building straw man arguments in an attempt to make a point that isn't actually counter to the original point.

Debate 101...if you want to counter my point, you either have to argue that Anderson is more valuable than many of the picks after him, or that the Braves will switch gears and choose BPA at #5. I don't see any evidence that could support either of those 2 counter points.

actually your entire argument is a fallacy as you are using the past to make assumptions on the future as if they are rules (they aren't) not to mention requiring that we prove the neagtive when you have yet to prove your claim that the Braves will not draft a guy with more value than the white sox or yankees. Apparently the Braves had Anderson #1 on their board at the time their pick came upas after having meetings with some players and not liking their character or demands (Groome, Lewis and a few others) and seeing his final start they were sold on his talent.

not to mention that cherry picking a ranking that puts a college catcher above a prep arm is kinda silly. I mean, Moniak is below Rutheford in Sickel's list, does this mean the Phillies picked him up for signability? Or do you just have an agenda and are manufacturing dissent so as to further your narrative?

 

[CJ9]

I definitely wasn't thrilled with going Anderson at 3 and would still easily prefer Lewis have been to pick.

Totally get what Enscheff is saying about what we expect to Braves to do at 5 simply because of their history. But I will say I think this year will be different and that they'll go for an elite talent simply because of the draft set up. Picking fifth makes it really tough to float guys down to the second round like we did with Wentz/Muller.

It'd be much harder to pull off that approach this season, so hopefully we'll just draft the best player this year. The bad news is there's no obvious college bat that should be there at 5 since Jeren Kendall will almost certainly be gone, and there's basically nothing else in the college bat class. That's what makes the Lewis thing hurt even worse for me.

 

[Southcack77]

Anderson specifically has been highly rated by many prospect publications. You can't make this stuff up.

And was easily expected to go in first round ... #98?

 

[Southcack77]

I know some will never let the lewis pick go. We'll see who the better player is. I was not sold on Lewis and think he could be a flame out. But most kids will flame out.

The ONLY complaint I have on the last draft was winning too many games and missing out on Senzel. We Pick that guy and I'm feeling really good about a 2018 infield with Senzel, Swanson, Albies, FF. Inciarte in CF. We'll just figure out the rest.

I'm with you. I think the Braves were not sold on Lewis and the comps were not extremely high anyway.

It wasn't a highly touted draft and the braves say they got someone they really liked plus two more first round talents. Don't have an issue there and think they acquired bats elsewhere.

 

[Southcack77]

It's not too early to have an opinion right now. And the majority of people feel the Braves took less talent to get better talent than normally available later in the draft. Whether that is correct move remains to be seen but I am not a fan of that strategy for the Braves right now. Maybe for a team like the Marlins who have nothing but the Braves already had a strong system. Getting the #1 guy available is what I would have done. And I don't believe the Braves spin that Anderson was that guy.

I don't either exactly, but I do believe that the braves were not sold on Lewis or any other prospect available being Special and I do believe that they had Anderson valued fairly highly internally, which seems to be an industry consensus in retrospect.

I tend to think volume is generally better with prospects unless it's a really special player. I'm not qualified to say Lewis is or isn't special but the comps attached to him weren't mind blowing anyway.

Braves added three high upside arms and they also knew basically what they were doing in the intl draft. And they knew they'd be trading off other assets.

I don't have a problem with what they doing overall. Who knows whether the particulars will go their way.

A short season minors performance certainly doesn't tell you much though Anderson and the other two did nothing to disappoint.

 

[Southcack77]

Yes, this is my point. If you take the #12 guy on draft boards at #3, then he'll still rank there 6 months later. We knew that at the time of the draft. This time next year, the Braves believe it will be an entirely different picture once these guys really hit pro ball. We'll see then who was right.

It could also be that the braves felt that Anderson, muller, wentz would be 15,16,17 in their ratings and Lewis would be 14.

That would be a valid strategy.

The only way the Braves are necessarily wrong is if Lewis turns out to be a star. Which is a risk, but less so in their minds if their scouting didn't show it.

I think with Lewis a lot of braves fans wanted to take him because they felt a need for a position player and therefore wanted to make Lewis or whomever, there were others, into a thing to fill that need.

Braves didn't see it that way.

I kind of wanted them to take a shot with one of the huge arms myself.

 

[smootness]

Allard was the 14th pick, and signed for $3,042,000, about $200K above the recommended pool value. He was not some huge over-slot guy. The Braves rolled the dice on a pitcher with injury concerns when they drafted Allard, which is another thing they have shown a willingness to do during this rebuild.

Recent draft history has shown us that guys like Groome who folks claim to be signability problems either sign anyways at near slot value, or go back into the draft and see their stock fall dramatically the next year like Appel and that other pitcher I am forgetting.

If the Braves are paying attention, they should realize they need to be drafting BPA and signing these guys to a deal near slot value. If the kid doesn't sign, the kid doesn't sign...good riddance. Use the same pick next year on a kid that wants to be a professional baseball player. Enough of this quantity over quality nonsense where they spread the money around.

The MLB draft is not like the NBA or even NFL draft. It's nearly impossible to even determine who BPA is, and different teams will differ fairly wildly at times on who they believe that is. We have just made the determination ourselves that the Braves didn't actually believe Anderson was BPA, when it's quite possible they actually did. Just because they were able to sign him under slot doesn't mean that's the main reason they drafted him.

Baseball America gave Anderson a 65 value, and Wentz/Muller both 55 values.
They gave Lewis a 60 value.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

I think the steal of the class will be Bryce Wilson. and Clouse of course..

 

[Carp]

I fail to see however a guy "hating his job" would make him rank Braves prospects lower/higher than prospects from other teams. That "fact" has no bearing on the organizational rankings.

And I quite literally stated the Braves are likely #1 at this instant in time. Swanson will be the first top prospect to fall off these lists, and Albies won't be far behind. Once those top talents are off, the Braves list is far less impressive. The Yankees and ChiSox won't be graduating any of their top players any time soon.

Yet the Braves have several more guys than the Yankees and Chi-Sox who are on the outskirts of the top 100, and at least 2 or 3 will likely move into the top 100 by midseason with a good first half. Guys like Touki, Fried, Weigel, Riley, Demeritte, and possibly even Peterson. I would also be surprised if Moncada and Gio stayed down all season, unless they struggled in the minors. More likely they stay down till June, and make a decision based on their performance/health.

 

[Enscheff]

Yet the Braves have several more guys than the Yankees and Chi-Sox who are on the outskirts of the top 100, and at least 2 or 3 will likely move into the top 100 by midseason with a good first half. Guys like Touki, Fried, Weigel, Riley, Demeritte, and possibly even Peterson. I would also be surprised if Moncada and Gio stayed down all season, unless they struggled in the minors. More likely they stay down till June, and make a decision based on their performance/health.

Yeah...I kinda just addressed the value of all the prospects in the 100-200 range for all these teams.